# ELECTION-01 coverage / release ledger (availability progress)

**STATUS:** AVAILABILITY_PROGRESS — House Clerk outcome PDFs VERIFIED for all 15 cycles; no fitting.  
**UPDATED:** 2026-09-10T03:29:29Z  
**DO NOT** ingest HTML-as-CSV / non-CSV redirects as poll data.  
**FITTING:** not authorized. **MODEL_CHANGE:** NO.

## Verified vs open vs blocked

### Verified

- **House Clerk Election Statistics** PDFs: all 15 presidential cycles 1968–2024 HTTP200 `application/pdf` via `history.house.gov/.../{year}election/` → `historycms.house.gov` (sizes in JSON).
- **FEC** Federal Elections links for presidential cycles 1984–2020; Official 2024 Presidential General Election Results PDF HTTP200.
- **MIT Election Lab** statewide presidential catalog documents **1976–2020**.
- **FiveThirtyEight** retrospective-average caveat; `president_polls_historical.csv` **REJECT** (prior HTML-as-CSV; 2026-09-10 recheck HTTP302→abcnews empty).
- **ALFRED** correct tool for economic vintages (pointer).
- **ANES 2024** Full Release dated **2025-08-08** (post-election) — availability risk confirmed.

### Open

- Per-cycle extracted official totals + two-party denominator hashes.
- MIT exact dataset version/hashes; 2024 statewide secondary pin.
- Release-dated national LV poll archive feasibility by cycle at T−60 (prefer Roper/publisher archives).
- ALFRED series list + vintage coverage matrix.
- ANES contemporaneous availability for cycles other than the 2024 BLOCK.
- Voteview vintage selection per cutoff.
- Eligible-cycle freeze after PIT audit (requires Claude ACCEPT on protocol).
- Full redistribution terms confirmation on download for MIT/Roper.

### Blocked

- MIT secondary for **1968** and **1972** (outside documented statewide 1976–2020 range).
- ANES **2024** same-election microdata for T−60 / M4 features.
- FiveThirtyEight historical CSV endpoint as CSV ingest.

## Licenses

| Source | License note |
|--------|----------------|
| House Clerk / FEC | US government work — public domain; cite before republishing extracts |
| MIT Election Lab | Public domain on Dataverse (confirm on download) |
| ANES | RESTRICTED — no respondent microdata on public Hub |
| Roper iPoll | Often restricted/subscription — metadata/links OK |
| ALFRED / Voteview / 538 repo | Record publisher terms before republish |

No paid data ordered. Public accessibility ≠ redistribution license.

## Availability matrix

Timezone for cutoffs: `America/New_York` end-of-day (proposal / v0.1.1). Primary = T−60; T−30 = sensitivity only.

| Cycle | Election day | T−60 cutoff | FEC | House Clerk | MIT | Polls PIT | ALFRED | ANES | Voteview | Eligible |
|------:|-------------:|------------:|:---:|:-----------:|:---:|:---------:|:----:|:----:|:--------:|:--------:|
| 1968 | 1968-11-05 | 1968-09-06 | OPEN | VERIFIED | BLOCKED | OPEN | OPEN | OPEN | OPEN | UNDECIDED |
| 1972 | 1972-11-07 | 1972-09-08 | OPEN | VERIFIED | BLOCKED | OPEN | OPEN | OPEN | OPEN | UNDECIDED |
| 1976 | 1976-11-02 | 1976-09-03 | OPEN | VERIFIED | VERIFIED | OPEN | OPEN | OPEN | OPEN | UNDECIDED |
| 1980 | 1980-11-04 | 1980-09-05 | OPEN | VERIFIED | VERIFIED | OPEN | OPEN | OPEN | OPEN | UNDECIDED |
| 1984 | 1984-11-06 | 1984-09-07 | VERIFIED | VERIFIED | VERIFIED | OPEN | OPEN | OPEN | OPEN | UNDECIDED |
| 1988 | 1988-11-08 | 1988-09-09 | VERIFIED | VERIFIED | VERIFIED | OPEN | OPEN | OPEN | OPEN | UNDECIDED |
| 1992 | 1992-11-03 | 1992-09-04 | VERIFIED | VERIFIED | VERIFIED | OPEN | OPEN | OPEN | OPEN | UNDECIDED |
| 1996 | 1996-11-05 | 1996-09-06 | VERIFIED | VERIFIED | VERIFIED | OPEN | OPEN | OPEN | OPEN | UNDECIDED |
| 2000 | 2000-11-07 | 2000-09-08 | VERIFIED | VERIFIED | VERIFIED | OPEN | OPEN | OPEN | OPEN | UNDECIDED |
| 2004 | 2004-11-02 | 2004-09-03 | VERIFIED | VERIFIED | VERIFIED | OPEN | OPEN | OPEN | OPEN | UNDECIDED |
| 2008 | 2008-11-04 | 2008-09-05 | VERIFIED | VERIFIED | VERIFIED | OPEN | OPEN | OPEN | OPEN | UNDECIDED |
| 2012 | 2012-11-06 | 2012-09-07 | VERIFIED | VERIFIED | VERIFIED | OPEN | OPEN | OPEN | OPEN | UNDECIDED |
| 2016 | 2016-11-08 | 2016-09-09 | VERIFIED | VERIFIED | VERIFIED | OPEN | OPEN | OPEN | OPEN | UNDECIDED |
| 2020 | 2020-11-03 | 2020-09-04 | VERIFIED | VERIFIED | VERIFIED | OPEN | OPEN | OPEN | OPEN | UNDECIDED |
| 2024 | 2024-11-05 | 2024-09-06 | VERIFIED | VERIFIED | OPEN | OPEN | OPEN | BLOCKED | OPEN | UNDECIDED |

Full machine-readable ledger: `coverage_release_ledger.json`.

## Source table (summary)

See JSON `sources[]` for URLs, audit_status, license_redistribution.

Integrity contract sha256: `145046ff15faa3f6d71e07c817f1d68b4a8addcd7bafea6dbb98a44a0ba4227b`  
Protocol fields v0.1.0 sha256: `5833965da9b9790ebb657029ba69cb248ab51d2ea359ecc518451b504a5e584f`  
Protocol fields v0.1.1 sha256: `492a32342c47a582a763baeed0fa7aacc36f311b77cb83f78df4d3df93f4f2ec`

## Non-claims

No model fitting. No election outcome joins for training. No Exp002 empirical inference in this pass. Gates preserved.