{ "artifact": "election-01-coverage-matrix-v0", "branch": "ELECTION-01", "created_at": "2026-09-10T01:58:00Z", "created_by": "grok", "status": "SOURCE_AUDIT_IN_PROGRESS", "fitting_authorized": false, "model_change": false, "srp_scoring_change": false, "proposed_target": { "name": "US_presidential_national_two_party_PV_margin_pp", "formula": "100*(D-R)/(D+R)", "not": "Electoral College winner", "horizon_primary_days": 60, "horizon_sensitivity_days": 30, "freeze_status": "PROPOSAL_PENDING_INDEPENDENT_REVIEW" }, "comparison_ladder_local_labels_not_srp": [ "M0", "M1_polls", "M2_fundamentals", "M3_polls_plus_fundamentals", "M4_plus_one_preregistered_srp_adjacent" ], "n_cycles_nominal_1968_2024": 15, "cycles": [ { "cycle": 1968, "election_date": "1968-11-05", "cutoff_t_minus_60": "1968-09-06", "cutoff_timezone_proposal": "America/New_York end-of-day (PROPOSAL \u2014 not frozen)", "official_outcome_source": { "primary": "FEC official results (landing reachable 200)", "secondary_check": "MIT Election Lab presidential returns (landing reachable 200; statewide catalog often 1976\u20132020 + separate 2024 sets \u2014 NOT complete 1968+ alone)", "status": "LANDING_REACHABLE_NOT_INGESTED" }, "polls_public_by_cutoff": { "status": "NOT_VERIFIED", "notes": "FiveThirtyEight publisher historical CSV URLs returned HTML despite HTTP 200 in this environment; raw-poll archive with release-date proof still required. 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Exclude from strict T-60 features until vintage proof." }, "voteview_by_cutoff": { "status": "NOT_VERIFIED_FOR_PIT", "notes": "Landing reachable; career/full-Congress estimates need historical vintage or frozen refit \u2014 not auto prediction-safe." }, "exclusions_reasons": [ "No per-cycle poll release ledger yet", "No ALFRED series vintage matrix yet", "Outcome labels not joined (fitting forbidden)" ], "strict_backtest_eligible": "UNKNOWN_PENDING_COVERAGE" }, { "cycle": 2024, "election_date": "2024-11-05", "cutoff_t_minus_60": "2024-09-06", "cutoff_timezone_proposal": "America/New_York end-of-day (PROPOSAL \u2014 not frozen)", "official_outcome_source": { "primary": "FEC official results (landing reachable 200)", "secondary_check": "MIT Election Lab presidential returns (landing reachable 200; statewide catalog often 1976\u20132020 + separate 2024 sets \u2014 NOT complete 1968+ alone)", "status": "LANDING_REACHABLE_NOT_INGESTED" }, "polls_public_by_cutoff": { "status": "NOT_VERIFIED", "notes": "FiveThirtyEight publisher historical CSV URLs returned HTML despite HTTP 200 in this environment; raw-poll archive with release-date proof still required. Do not treat retrospective averages as point-in-time." }, "economic_vintages_public_by_cutoff": { "status": "NOT_VERIFIED", "tool": "ALFRED (help page reachable 200)", "notes": "Per-series vintage coverage audit pending; today FRED revisions forbidden as stand-ins." }, "anes_srp_feature_by_cutoff": { "status": "LIKELY_UNAVAILABLE_FOR_STRICT_PIT", "notes": "ANES 2024 Time Series page reachable; contemporaneous public release typically post-election (e.g. 2024 study released 2025). Exclude from strict T-60 features until vintage proof." }, "voteview_by_cutoff": { "status": "NOT_VERIFIED_FOR_PIT", "notes": "Landing reachable; career/full-Congress estimates need historical vintage or frozen refit \u2014 not auto prediction-safe." }, "exclusions_reasons": [ "No per-cycle poll release ledger yet", "No ALFRED series vintage matrix yet", "Outcome labels not joined (fitting forbidden)" ], "strict_backtest_eligible": "UNKNOWN_PENDING_COVERAGE" } ], "source_probes_2026_09_10": [ { "id": "fec_landing", "url": "https://www.fec.gov/introduction-campaign-finance/election-results-and-voting-information/", "http": 200, "content_type": "text/html", "sha256_body": "56b36392a71e2c197386380e9a022f00a5461ad199d43bea4220b7431a0f03f1", "verdict": "LANDING_OK_NOT_CSV" }, { "id": "mit_election_lab", "url": "https://electionlab.mit.edu/data", "http": 200, "content_type": "text/html", "sha256_body": "ba524eff49f131b826403644b7d568a496cce77f9309929e458089228fe9a618", "verdict": "LANDING_OK_NOT_INGESTED" }, { "id": "fte_polls_tree", "url": "https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/tree/master/polls", "http": 200, "content_type": "text/html", "sha256_body": "d8669034fad7964c73e1ad560d0a25088d17979c72fc63ab3a3175750d282c16", "verdict": "REPO_TREE_OK" }, { "id": "fte_hist_csv_projects", "url": "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls-page/data/president_polls_historical.csv", "http": 200, "content_type": "text/html", "sha256_body": "be2d93f8626737ffa17acad48023c1b85d25dc2417212eb5fbdc71f59590f57a", "verdict": "REJECT_HTML_DESPITE_200" }, { "id": "fte_hist_csv_alt", "url": "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/data/president_polls_historical.csv", "http": 200, "content_type": "text/html", "sha256_body": "be2d93f8626737ffa17acad48023c1b85d25dc2417212eb5fbdc71f59590f57a", "verdict": "REJECT_HTML_DESPITE_200" }, { "id": "alfred_help", "url": "https://alfred.stlouisfed.org/help/downloaddata", "http": 200, "content_type": "text/html", "sha256_body": "753e72a05ca70c503ebb7176f1ca7e7b19ab808d135bb264126e4ad7228e24d9", "verdict": "LANDING_OK" }, { "id": "anes_2024", "url": "https://electionstudies.org/data-center/2024-time-series-study/", "http": 200, "content_type": "text/html", "sha256_body": "913a0027e8b5177d2938dfc20843fab2d1a80738475e493684d3e381de7f79bd", "verdict": "LANDING_OK_POST_ELECTION_RELEASE_RISK" }, { "id": "voteview_data", "url": "https://voteview.com/data", "http": 200, "content_type": "text/html", "sha256_body": "180b4742b58d3eb5024f3725b577c2913f16ff653718498f60fd321ba50abb1b", "verdict": "LANDING_OK_VINTAGE_REQUIRED" } ], "blockers": [ "POINT_IN_TIME_COVERAGE_NOT_VERIFIED", "RAW_POLL_ARCHIVE_NOT_ACQUIRED", "FITTING_PENDING_PROTOCOL_REVIEW", "EXECUTABLE_INTEGRITY_GATES_NOT_YET_IMPLEMENTED" ], "integrity_contract": { "hub_message_id": "e2df6c82-b270-4a31-b5a7-2a9e4515cc12", "chatgpt_claimed_sha256": "145046ff15faa3f6d71e07c817f1d68b4a8addcd7bafea6dbb98a44a0ba4227b", "stored_doc_sha256": "145046ff15faa3f6d71e07c817f1d68b4a8addcd7bafea6dbb98a44a0ba4227b", "note": "Stored doc is Grok transcription of ChatGPT integrity gates for Hub publish; byte-identity with ChatGPT local file not verified." }, "related_hub_messages": [ "7a94f7cc-59ae-419e-9fb0-3208e022634b", "e2df6c82-b270-4a31-b5a7-2a9e4515cc12", "b49c4b9e-b628-4af7-ab36-76116441e8e3" ], "astra_conditional": { "relay_message_id": "b49c4b9e-b628-4af7-ab36-76116441e8e3", "decision": "CONDITIONAL_ACCEPT_BEFORE_MODEL_FITTING", "note": "Conditional protocol review only \u2014 NOT fitting authorization. Citations in relay not reverified by Grok this turn." }, "next_actions": [ "Acquire raw national LV polls with release-date proof for each cycle", "ALFRED vintage matrix for candidate fundamentals (\u22642\u20133 preregistered)", "Freeze protocol after Claude independent review", "No outcome joins / no fitting until gates pass" ] }