{ "pass": "pass4_retry_usc_aspx_vintage", "at_utc": "2026-09-10T19:17:46Z", "model_change": false, "fitting_authorized": false, "eligible_strict_PIT": "UNDECIDED", "wayback_usc": { "cdx_http": "OK via http://web.archive.org/cdx (https TLS EOF / availability API 429)", "n_snaps_200": 16, "earliest_ts": "20161128232818", "earliest_sha256": "7cb7c6480afcba99c80a20d6171e7d72bfee5a143d482332e65999d7aaa0a77f", "pre_update_snaps_before_20150710": 0, "verdict": "NO_PRE_UPDATE_VINTAGE \u2014 NOT_ELIGIBLE_YET; vintage recovery still OPEN (other mirrors/LAT)" }, "pass3_corrections": [ "Gallup /poll/110548 is Trial-Heat Trends datePublished 2008-09-24 gt_T60 \u2014 not 2008-09-02 Daily" ], "new_le_T60_examples": { "2016_LV": [ "2016-08-25_quinnipiac" ], "2012_RV": [ "2012-07-11_quinnipiac" ], "2008_RV_gallup_daily": [ "2008-08-01", "2008-08-06", "2008-08-11", "2008-08-14", "2008-08-22", "2008-08-29" ] }, "candidate_inventory_rows": [ { "row_id": "QU_2024-08-29_national_LV", "cycle": 2024, "publisher": "Quinnipiac", "url": "https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3903", "pdf_url": "https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/us/us08292024_unwt24.pdf", "release_date": "2024-08-29", "fieldwork": "2024-08-23/2024-08-27", "T60": "2024-09-06", "vs_T60": "le_T60", "population_label": "LV", "n": 1611, "html_sha256": "42f98daeb00c67e3f5f72cdbe7700543a83177ae604146bb0f1149ddcc1809f8", "pdf_sha256": "3ffa16c514701db73ec3e8570e4688295f7f745f99fe1d73c3fe20f0af0bdbfe", "codex_ref": "ca396a33", "claude_ref": "d2832b03", "notes": "First Quinnipiac 2024 national LV; publisher warns against RV comparison; H2H+multicandidate same sample \u2192 one poll/sample for Baseline1", "counts_toward_strict_LV_inventory": true, "eligible_strict_PIT_cycle": "UNDECIDED" }, { "row_id": "Marist_2016-08-05", "cycle": 2016, "publisher": "Marist", "url": "https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/85-clinton-with-wide-lead-over-trump-nationally/", "release_date": "2016-08-05", "T60": "2016-09-09", "vs_T60": "le_T60", "population_label": "RV", "population_label_html_heuristic": "RV", "html_sha256": "06dcfd1d8ae45cb0f1ceb1d13fbfef8f40807b491da12fee4e89a8219b0ee18a", "bytes": 59280, "codex_ref": "e5bbfe90", "claude_ref": "d2832b03", "counts_toward_strict_LV_inventory": false, "notes": "Codex: headline registered-voter topline \u2014 RV fallback tier only unless PDF LV subtable proven", "eligible_strict_PIT_cycle": "UNDECIDED" }, { "row_id": "Marist_2016-09-23", "cycle": 2016, "publisher": "Marist", "url": "https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/923-clinton-leads-trump-by-7-points-nationally/", "release_date": "2016-09-23", "T60": "2016-09-09", "vs_T60": "gt_T60", "population_label": "MIXED_LV_RV_MENTIONS", "population_label_html_heuristic": "MIXED_LV_RV_MENTIONS", "html_sha256": "5b5f7e340a7f76d46d192a5bb5eb6c1635066f7833f0a9acdca1162982ef3b36", "bytes": 57647, "codex_ref": "e5bbfe90", "claude_ref": "d2832b03", "counts_toward_strict_LV_inventory": null, "notes": "Codex: headline registered-voter topline \u2014 RV fallback tier only unless PDF LV subtable proven", "eligible_strict_PIT_cycle": "UNDECIDED" }, { "row_id": "Marist_2020-06-26", "cycle": 2020, "publisher": "Marist", "url": "https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/npr-pbs-newshour-marist-poll-results-2020-presidential-election-and-trumps-approval-rating/", "release_date": "2020-06-26", "T60": "2020-09-04", "vs_T60": "le_T60", "population_label": "RV", "population_label_html_heuristic": "RV", "html_sha256": "cac81a310e0140078201ff6f180deff9fa85f3e24ea5ee895311c57571580593", "bytes": 39513, "codex_ref": "e5bbfe90", "claude_ref": "d2832b03", "counts_toward_strict_LV_inventory": false, "notes": "Codex: headline registered-voter topline \u2014 RV fallback tier only unless PDF LV subtable proven", "eligible_strict_PIT_cycle": "UNDECIDED" }, { "row_id": "Marist_2024-06", "cycle": 2024, "publisher": "Marist", "url": "https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/the-2024-presidential-election-june-2024/", "release_date": "2024-06-18", "T60": "2024-09-06", "vs_T60": "le_T60", "population_label": "RV", "population_label_html_heuristic": "RV", "html_sha256": "f8c1c6d1ec3d8ddd11f4b08099a47ef40ad7ac34effe790564041d74857e1ceb", "bytes": 50137, "codex_ref": "e5bbfe90", "claude_ref": "d2832b03", "counts_toward_strict_LV_inventory": null, "notes": "Codex: headline registered-voter topline \u2014 RV fallback tier only unless PDF LV subtable proven", "eligible_strict_PIT_cycle": "UNDECIDED" }, { "row_id": "Marist_2024-08-06", "cycle": 2024, "publisher": "Marist", "url": "https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/the-2024-presidential-contest-august-2024/", "release_date": "2024-08-06", "T60": "2024-09-06", "vs_T60": "le_T60", "population_label": "RV", "population_label_html_heuristic": "RV", "html_sha256": "26b7de3533760e19ce8cbed863af0f50c594575cb5dd8d5d2143ddeba1a8268e", "bytes": 56017, "codex_ref": "e5bbfe90", "claude_ref": "d2832b03", "counts_toward_strict_LV_inventory": false, "notes": "Codex: headline registered-voter topline \u2014 RV fallback tier only unless PDF LV subtable proven", "eligible_strict_PIT_cycle": "UNDECIDED" }, { "row_id": "Marist_2024-09-10", "cycle": 2024, "publisher": "Marist", "url": "https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/the-u-s-presidential-contest-september-2024/", "release_date": "2024-09-10", "T60": "2024-09-06", "vs_T60": "gt_T60", "population_label": "RV", "population_label_html_heuristic": "RV", "html_sha256": "364c9a10a928e4ebc12b86ecb214799db44111b014bde401041baa87e309f429", "bytes": 49541, "codex_ref": "e5bbfe90", "claude_ref": "d2832b03", "counts_toward_strict_LV_inventory": null, "notes": "Codex: headline registered-voter topline \u2014 RV fallback tier only unless PDF LV subtable proven", "eligible_strict_PIT_cycle": "UNDECIDED" }, { "row_id": "USC_Annenberg_LAT_2012-08-23", "cycle": 2012, "publisher": "USC_Annenberg_LAT", "url": "https://annenberg.usc.edu/news/published/national-usc-annenberg-los-angeles-times-poll-shows-presidential-race-dead-heat-going", "release_date_claimed": "2012-08-23", "T60": "2012-09-07", "vs_T60_claimed": "le_T60", "population_label": "MIXED_LV_RV_MENTIONS_on_post_update_page", "live_sha256": "6c0621cca84215b60ceee34b7b7312cbbbda10ad49363746e65b825412443564", "vintage_blocker": true, "vintage_blocker_reason": "Page marked UPDATED July 10, 2015; live bytes not proven available at 2012 T-60", "wayback_recovery": "PASS4: post-migration URL has 0 pre-2015 snaps (earliest 20161128). PASS4_RETRY: original ASPX URL recovers pre-update vintage \u2014 see USC_Annenberg_LAT_2012-08-23_ASPX_WB.", "gqrr_crosstab_url": "https://www.gqrr.com/index.php?ID=2780", "gqrr_sha256": "ba35662b87376bc9419ed41665861eda33c358356d37456dcaa3e54a0105bc8e", "codex_ref": "6ea56195", "claude_ref": "d2832b03", "counts_toward_strict_LV_inventory": false, "status": "NOT_ELIGIBLE_YET_POST_MIGRATION_URL", "eligible_strict_PIT_cycle": "UNDECIDED", "gqrr_http": 200, "gqrr_bytes": 85353, "wayback_earliest_ts": "20161128232818", "wayback_earliest_sha256": "7cb7c6480afcba99c80a20d6171e7d72bfee5a143d482332e65999d7aaa0a77f", "wayback_earliest_bytes": 186321, "wayback_pre_update_snaps": 0, "pass4_note": "Wayback proves absence of pre-update capture for this URL; live page still UPDATED 2015-07-10", "pass4_retry_note": "Canonical post-migration URL remains NOT_ELIGIBLE_YET; use ASPX row for \u2264T-60 vintage." }, { "row_id": "USC_Annenberg_LAT_2012-08-23_ASPX_WB", "cycle": 2012, "publisher": "USC_Annenberg_LAT", "url": "http://annenberg.usc.edu/News%20and%20Events/News/120823LATimesPoll.aspx", "wayback_url": "http://web.archive.org/web/20120826032215id_/http://annenberg.usc.edu/News%20and%20Events/News/120823LATimesPoll.aspx", "wayback_ts": "20120826032215", "release_date": "2012-08-23", "fieldwork": "2012-08-13/2012-08-19", "T60": "2012-09-07", "vs_T60": "le_T60", "population_label": "LV", "population_label_detail": "Horse-race topline among likely voters (48-46); frame n=1009 registered voters MOE +/-3.1", "n_frame_RV": 1009, "html_sha256": "13c5920a7e51d02587ba170e5393bc54e9bd877fff499a5d32028fe43f4d9e24", "bytes": 35636, "secondary_lat_print": { "url": "http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-presidential-poll-20120823,0,2813568,print.story", "wayback_ts": "20120824051823", "html_sha256": "b2c597c521bbbd91599c1140849a7ab0283acc387a33aa11e5e6628ad1d85514", "bytes": 17217 }, "gqrr_landing_wayback": { "url": "http://www.gqrr.com/index.php?ID=2780", "wayback_ts": "20120826032302", "html_sha256": "3f7992d1d185451e6b466cd034cbc8826d24c2aa4fa3017e515fba33eb030b12", "bytes": 39173, "note": "Links to Full Crosstabs PDF paths; PDF bytes via Wayback id_ returned HTML 404 this pass" }, "counts_toward_strict_LV_inventory": true, "status": "VERIFIED_PARTIAL_HASH_MATCH_METADATA_CORRECTED", "eligible_strict_PIT_cycle": "UNDECIDED", "notes": "PASS4_RETRY cheap vintage: original 2012 ASPX URL (not post-2015 migration slug) recovered via Wayback ts 20120824/20120826 identical sha256; Posted August 23, 2012; no UPDATED 2015 marker. Horse-race LV; RV frame. LAT print + GQRR landing corroborate. GQRR PDF capture still OPEN.", "codex_ref": "6ea56195", "claude_ref": "d2832b03", "pass": "pass4_retry_usc_aspx", "wayback_ts_requested": "20120824060000", "wayback_ts_resolved": "20120826032215", "wayback_ts_legacy_single_field": "20120824060000", "wayback_url_requested": "http://web.archive.org/web/20120824060000id_/http://annenberg.usc.edu/News%20and%20Events/News/120823LATimesPoll.aspx", "wayback_redirect_note": "requested_ts redirects to resolved_ts; store separately", "codex_hash_verified": true, "codex_hash_verified_at": "2026-09-10T19:17:46Z", "codex_message_id": "e6ef2075-d543-47a3-bcd3-08fcde1acb6d", "metadata_correction": { "requested_ts": "20120824060000", "resolved_ts": "20120826032215", "resolved_vs_T60": "le_T60", "timing_disqualify": false, "evidence_id": "election-usc-archive-verification.json" } }, { "row_id": "Gallup_2008-09-24_trialheat_CORRECTED", "cycle": 2008, "publisher": "Gallup", "url": "https://news.gallup.com/poll/110548/gallup-daily-obama-leads-mccain-48-43.aspx", "release_date": "2008-09-24", "T60": "2008-09-05", "vs_T60": "gt_T60", "population_label": "MIXED_LV_RV_MENTIONS", "html_sha256": "ea949906d07260da146a8b763cf49ef79ca556760463f5a5ea7472eec7cc03fe", "bytes": 83848, "notes": "PASS4 correction: URL /poll/110548 resolves to Trial-Heat Trends compilation with article:published_time 2008-09-24 (gt T-60 2008-09-05), NOT a 2008-09-02 Daily. See Gallup_2008-09-24_trialheat + Gallup_2008-08-* RV dailies.", "counts_toward_strict_LV_inventory": false, "eligible_strict_PIT_cycle": "UNDECIDED", "status": "CORRECTED_PASS4" }, { "row_id": "PollingReport_2012", "cycle": 2012, "publisher": "PollingReport", "url": "https://www.pollingreport.com/wh12gen.htm", "release_date": null, "T60": "2012-09-07", "vs_T60": null, "population_label": "MIXED_FIELD_DATES_NOT_RELEASE_PROOF", "html_sha256": "e8cd91221073ddd27564521e46f3a71c7a12f5a86f1cd85ca6e84a20132f1c2a", "bytes": 138425, "http": 200, "notes": "Field-date archive HTTP200; per-poll release\u2264T-60 still unproven (strict PIT)", "counts_toward_strict_LV_inventory": false, "eligible_strict_PIT_cycle": "UNDECIDED", "pass4_rehash": true }, { "row_id": "PollingReport_2008", "cycle": 2008, "publisher": "PollingReport", "url": "https://www.pollingreport.com/wh08gen.htm", "release_date": null, "T60": "2008-09-05", "vs_T60": null, "population_label": "MIXED_FIELD_DATES_NOT_RELEASE_PROOF", "html_sha256": "1540b88e648e1a8d59dad64dcd2bce6ec6728b2fad415b585eb781cbd88ec665", "bytes": 535784, "http": 200, "notes": "Field-date archive HTTP200; per-poll release\u2264T-60 still unproven (strict PIT)", "counts_toward_strict_LV_inventory": false, "eligible_strict_PIT_cycle": "UNDECIDED" }, { "row_id": "QU_2016-08-25_national_LV", "cycle": 2016, "publisher": "Quinnipiac", "url": "https://poll.qu.edu/Poll-Release-Legacy?releaseid=2375", "pdf_url": "https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/us/us08252016_U88mxwn.pdf", "demos_pdf_url": "https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/us/us08252016_demos_U88mxwn.pdf", "release_date": "2016-08-25", "fieldwork": "2016-08-18/2016-08-24", "T60": "2016-09-09", "vs_T60": "le_T60", "population_label": "LV", "n": 1498, "html_sha256": "d4846c6416037e2a07d0496cf3367c3c84a540118cf2cb3cd712d06388f4ac93", "pdf_sha256": "3772a80afbb6c96015074f30327f22172d31e3f27afcdbaea792a90967b321f1", "demos_pdf_sha256": "2a2ea82812860af0756c4fdee2c3c87fa794c3ce7f5afb3a37d9975672c8530f", "html_bytes": 132066, "pdf_bytes": 463306, "for_release": "FOR RELEASE: AUGUST 25, 2016", "notes": "National LV; PDF states cannot compare to earlier RV surveys. First 2016 national LV \u2264T-60 hashed this pass.", "counts_toward_strict_LV_inventory": true, "eligible_strict_PIT_cycle": "UNDECIDED" }, { "row_id": "QU_2012-07-11_national_RV", "cycle": 2012, "publisher": "Quinnipiac", "url": "https://poll.qu.edu/Poll-Release-Legacy?releaseid=1770", "release_date": "2012-07-11", "T60": "2012-09-07", "vs_T60": "le_T60", "population_label": "RV", "html_sha256": "bc37c416d44a59a5f9046c74834c59767ba4c8041f220b5f8f4d31d5005d19ab", "html_bytes": 123551, "notes": "National RV (registered voters) \u2264T-60; PDF not linked on legacy page this pass. RV fallback tier only.", "counts_toward_strict_LV_inventory": false, "eligible_strict_PIT_cycle": "UNDECIDED" }, { "row_id": "Gallup_2008-08-01", "cycle": 2008, "publisher": "Gallup", "url": "https://news.gallup.com/poll/109219/gallup-daily-race-tied-44.aspx", "release_date": "2008-08-01", "T60": "2008-09-05", "vs_T60": "le_T60", "population_label": "RV", "title": "Gallup Daily: Race Tied at 44%", "html_sha256": "d874cb811ee5f6b4d85446e35872b908af95dac8aacba60e2e650b56be685375", "bytes": 80638, "datePublished_source": "article:published_time", "notes": "Gallup Daily / tracking among registered voters; RV fallback tier (not strict LV).", "counts_toward_strict_LV_inventory": false, "eligible_strict_PIT_cycle": "UNDECIDED" }, { "row_id": "Gallup_2008-08-06", "cycle": 2008, "publisher": "Gallup", "url": "https://news.gallup.com/poll/109309/Independents-Remain-Split-Between-Obama-McCain.aspx", "release_date": "2008-08-06", "T60": "2008-09-05", "vs_T60": "le_T60", "population_label": "RV", "title": "Independents Remain Split Between Obama and McCain", "html_sha256": "3f12fc731cb3155f3fc43bfc8d7619dfa79527a8e048dd6b39167e1aaa8d5c57", "bytes": 84326, "datePublished_source": "article:published_time", "notes": "Gallup Daily / tracking among registered voters; RV fallback tier (not strict LV).", "counts_toward_strict_LV_inventory": false, "eligible_strict_PIT_cycle": "UNDECIDED" }, { "row_id": "Gallup_2008-08-11", "cycle": 2008, "publisher": "Gallup", "url": "https://news.gallup.com/poll/109408/gallup-daily-obama-47-mccain-42.aspx", "release_date": "2008-08-11", "T60": "2008-09-05", "vs_T60": "le_T60", "population_label": "RV", "title": "Gallup Daily: Obama 47%, McCain 42%", "html_sha256": "d0d8c28b34f262c738e24ac053e52fe03c276187d505e8ff6c022fc385136a91", "bytes": 80275, "datePublished_source": "article:published_time", "notes": "Gallup Daily / tracking among registered voters; RV fallback tier (not strict LV).", "counts_toward_strict_LV_inventory": false, "eligible_strict_PIT_cycle": "UNDECIDED" }, { "row_id": "Gallup_2008-08-14", "cycle": 2008, "publisher": "Gallup", "url": "https://news.gallup.com/poll/109513/Gallup-Daily-Obama-McCain.aspx", "release_date": "2008-08-14", "T60": "2008-09-05", "vs_T60": "le_T60", "population_label": "RV", "title": "Gallup Daily: Obama Up by 3 on McCain", "html_sha256": "c4c10413b50ca3483a3c2b0ae25e3018eaaed873c8b19146a5f3b22833575175", "bytes": 79662, "datePublished_source": "article:published_time", "notes": "Gallup Daily / tracking among registered voters; RV fallback tier (not strict LV).", "counts_toward_strict_LV_inventory": false, "eligible_strict_PIT_cycle": "UNDECIDED" }, { "row_id": "Gallup_2008-08-22", "cycle": 2008, "publisher": "Gallup", "url": "https://news.gallup.com/poll/109774/Obama-Lags-Democratic-Support.aspx", "release_date": "2008-08-22", "T60": "2008-09-05", "vs_T60": "le_T60", "population_label": "RV", "title": "Obama Lags in Democratic Support", "html_sha256": "946a22a6191973e81ecacf2bbfadfcbb822f51e881115585839494d30755e52f", "bytes": 84260, "datePublished_source": "article:published_time", "notes": "Gallup Daily / tracking among registered voters; RV fallback tier (not strict LV).", "counts_toward_strict_LV_inventory": false, "eligible_strict_PIT_cycle": "UNDECIDED" }, { "row_id": "Gallup_2008-08-29", "cycle": 2008, "publisher": "Gallup", "url": "https://news.gallup.com/poll/109933/gallup-daily-obama-47-mccain-45.aspx", "release_date": "2008-08-29", "T60": "2008-09-05", "vs_T60": "le_T60", "population_label": "RV", "title": "Gallup Daily: Obama Stretches Lead to 8 Points", "html_sha256": "3857eee8b9e3fa1a47033236222adefac32a16ea31d63a09cf06c03518598887", "bytes": 80958, "datePublished_source": "article:published_time", "notes": "Gallup Daily / tracking among registered voters; RV fallback tier (not strict LV).", "counts_toward_strict_LV_inventory": false, "eligible_strict_PIT_cycle": "UNDECIDED" }, { "row_id": "Gallup_2020-08-14", "cycle": 2020, "publisher": "Gallup", "url": "https://news.gallup.com/poll/317474/say-neither-candidate-good-president.aspx", "release_date": "2020-08-14", "T60": "2020-09-04", "vs_T60": "le_T60", "population_label": "All Adults", "title": "25% Say Neither Candidate Would Be a Good President", "html_sha256": "569f58d5c828dae1e1926eab271d7bde756106132a4ff703d738a7e913a6394b", "bytes": 98023, "notes": "Election-adjacent \u2264T-60 datePublished; population_label=All Adults \u2014 does not fill LV or RV horse-race slot.", "counts_toward_strict_LV_inventory": false, "eligible_strict_PIT_cycle": "UNDECIDED" }, { "row_id": "Gallup_2020-08-17", "cycle": 2020, "publisher": "Gallup", "url": "https://news.gallup.com/poll/317477/trump-job-approval-below-seven-key-issues.aspx", "release_date": "2020-08-17", "T60": "2020-09-04", "vs_T60": "le_T60", "population_label": "All Adults", "title": "Trump Job Approval 42%", "html_sha256": "58bc4847c2939de939367a035114e77392924b25ca4a4b9b3dea613252d19b45", "bytes": 89178, "notes": "Election-adjacent \u2264T-60 datePublished; population_label=All Adults \u2014 does not fill LV or RV horse-race slot.", "counts_toward_strict_LV_inventory": false, "eligible_strict_PIT_cycle": "UNDECIDED" }, { "row_id": "Gallup_2020-08-24", "cycle": 2020, "publisher": "Gallup", "url": "https://news.gallup.com/poll/317771/democratic-edge-party-affiliation-shrinks.aspx", "release_date": "2020-08-24", "T60": "2020-09-04", "vs_T60": "le_T60", "population_label": "All Adults", "title": "Democratic Edge in Party Affiliation Shrinks", "html_sha256": "ad128f8e3e8b0fe212cfe40e214a3771ba8b0a388348cbb544ca9411e2d2ae86", "bytes": 89719, "notes": "Election-adjacent \u2264T-60 datePublished; population_label=All Adults \u2014 does not fill LV or RV horse-race slot.", "counts_toward_strict_LV_inventory": false, "eligible_strict_PIT_cycle": "UNDECIDED" }, { "row_id": "PollingReport_2004", "cycle": 2004, "publisher": "PollingReport", "url": "https://www.pollingreport.com/wh04gen.htm", "release_date": null, "T60": "2004-09-03", "vs_T60": null, "population_label": "MIXED_FIELD_DATES_NOT_RELEASE_PROOF", "html_sha256": "d4773fab1f271d4912558951373825702b08911f4a79103572dbd0ea12f5483d", "bytes": 162194, "http": 200, "notes": "Field-date archive HTTP200; 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