# ELECTION-01 coverage / release ledger (availability progress)

**STATUS:** AVAILABILITY_PROGRESS — pass4 (+retry): USC original ASPX Wayback ≤T-60 LV recovered; QU 2016-08-25 LV; QU 2012-07-11 RV; Gallup 2008 Daily RV ×6; eligible_strict_PIT UNDECIDED; no fitting.
**UPDATED:** 2026-09-10T16:15:00Z
**DO NOT** ingest HTML-as-CSV / non-CSV redirects as poll data.  
**FITTING:** not authorized. **MODEL_CHANGE:** NO.  
**S1/E2 exploratory:** PARKED (James) — posted ANES/N3 frozen; no new sensors/composites/re-slices.

## Verified vs open vs blocked

### Verified

- **House Clerk Election Statistics** PDFs: all 15 presidential cycles 1968–2024 HTTP200 `application/pdf`.
- **FEC** Federal Elections links for presidential cycles 1984–2020; Official 2024 Presidential General Election Results PDF HTTP200.
- **MIT Election Lab** statewide presidential catalog documents **1976–2020**.
- **FiveThirtyEight** retrospective-average caveat; `president_polls_historical.csv` **REJECT** (HTML → abcnews; pass2 reconfirm).
- **ALFRED** correct tool for economic vintages (pointer).
- **ANES 2024** Full Release dated **2025-08-08** (post-election) — availability risk confirmed.
- **Marist Poll publisher** publication dates: **2016-08-05** ≤ T−60 (+ PDF Immediate Release); **2016-09-23** > T−60; **2020-06-26** ≤ T−60 (+ Jun/Aug tables PDFs); **2024-06-18** / **2024-08-06** ≤ T−60; **2024-09-10** > T−60.
- **Quinnipiac** national **2016-08-25** LV (n=1498; FOR RELEASE Aug 25; field Aug 18–24) ≤ T−60 — HTML+PDF hashed (pass4).
- **Quinnipiac** national **2012-07-11** RV ≤ T−60 — legacy HTML hashed (pass4).
- **Gallup Daily 2008** RV publication dates **2008-08-01/06/11/14/22/29** ≤ T−60 hashed (pass4); **110548 trial-heat** corrected to datePublished **2008-09-24** > T−60.
- **USC Annenberg/LAT 2012**: post-migration URL Wayback earliest **2016-11-28** (NOT_ELIGIBLE_YET for that URL); **original ASPX** `…/News/120823LATimesPoll.aspx` Wayback **20120824** ≤ T−60 **LV** horse-race hashed (pass4 retry; RV frame n=1009).
- **Quinnipiac** national **2024-08-29** HTML + `FOR RELEASE: AUGUST 29, 2024` PDF ≤ T−60.
- **Pew** **2020-08-13** `datePublished` ≤ T−60; **2024-09-09** topline PDF > T−60.
- **Gallup** Trial-Heat Trends 1936–2008 + **2020-08-14/17/24** `datePublished` ≤ T−60 (election-adjacent).
- **PollingReport.com** field-date cycle HTML archives HTTP200 for **2000 / 2004 / 2008 / 2012 / 2016 / 2020 / 2024**; **1992/1996 HTTP404**.

### Open

- Per-cycle extracted official totals + two-party denominator hashes.
- MIT exact dataset version/hashes; 2024 statewide secondary pin.
- **Complete** release-dated national LV poll inventory by cycle at T−60 (examples for 2016/2020/2024 only).
- Publisher release-date examples for cycles **≤2012** — **partial:** Gallup 2008 Daily RV ×6; Quinnipiac 2012-07-11 RV; USC 2012 ASPX Wayback LV ≤T−60 (post-migration URL still NOT_ELIGIBLE_YET).
- Roper iPoll membership extraction + redistribution confirmation.
- ALFRED series list + vintage coverage matrix.
- ANES contemporaneous availability for cycles other than the 2024 BLOCK.
- Voteview vintage selection per cutoff.
- Eligible-cycle freeze after PIT audit (requires Claude ACCEPT on protocol).

### Blocked

- MIT secondary for **1968** and **1972** (outside documented statewide 1976–2020 range).
- ANES **2024** same-election microdata for T−60 / M4 features.
- FiveThirtyEight historical CSV endpoint as CSV ingest (HTML/abcnews).
- HuffPost Pollster API v2 (HTTP404 / unmaintained).

## Licenses

| Source | License note |
|--------|----------------|
| House Clerk / FEC | US government work — public domain; cite before republishing extracts |
| MIT Election Lab | Public domain on Dataverse (confirm on download) |
| ANES | RESTRICTED — no respondent microdata on public Hub |
| Roper iPoll | Often restricted/subscription — metadata/links OK |
| Marist Poll | All Rights Reserved © Marist University — Terms of Use; links/metadata OK |
| Quinnipiac | University poll terms — citation OK; no wholesale republish |
| Gallup | Commercial/publisher terms — no wholesale republish without license |
| PollingReport.com | © Polling Report, Inc. + sponsoring orgs; some subscriber content |
| Pew Research | Publisher terms; citation OK; check before bulk republish |
| ALFRED / Voteview / 538 repo | Record publisher terms before republish |

No paid data ordered. Public accessibility ≠ redistribution license.

## Availability matrix

Timezone for cutoffs: `America/New_York` end-of-day (proposal / v0.1.1). Primary = T−60; T−30 = sensitivity only.

| Cycle | Election day | T−60 cutoff | FEC | House Clerk | MIT | Polls PIT | ALFRED | ANES | Voteview | Eligible |
|------:|-------------:|------------:|:---:|:-----------:|:---:|:---------:|:----:|:----:|:--------:|:--------:|
| 1968 | 1968-11-05 | 1968-09-06 | OPEN | VERIFIED | BLOCKED | OPEN | OPEN | OPEN | OPEN | UNDECIDED |
| 1972 | 1972-11-07 | 1972-09-08 | OPEN | VERIFIED | BLOCKED | OPEN | OPEN | OPEN | OPEN | UNDECIDED |
| 1976 | 1976-11-02 | 1976-09-03 | OPEN | VERIFIED | VERIFIED | OPEN | OPEN | OPEN | OPEN | UNDECIDED |
| 1980 | 1980-11-04 | 1980-09-05 | OPEN | VERIFIED | VERIFIED | OPEN | OPEN | OPEN | OPEN | UNDECIDED |
| 1984 | 1984-11-06 | 1984-09-07 | VERIFIED | VERIFIED | VERIFIED | OPEN | OPEN | OPEN | OPEN | UNDECIDED |
| 1988 | 1988-11-08 | 1988-09-09 | VERIFIED | VERIFIED | VERIFIED | OPEN | OPEN | OPEN | OPEN | UNDECIDED |
| 1992 | 1992-11-03 | 1992-09-04 | VERIFIED | VERIFIED | VERIFIED | OPEN‡ | OPEN | OPEN | OPEN | UNDECIDED |
| 1996 | 1996-11-05 | 1996-09-06 | VERIFIED | VERIFIED | VERIFIED | OPEN‡ | OPEN | OPEN | OPEN | UNDECIDED |
| 2000 | 2000-11-07 | 2000-09-08 | VERIFIED | VERIFIED | VERIFIED | OPEN* | OPEN | OPEN | OPEN | UNDECIDED |
| 2004 | 2004-11-02 | 2004-09-03 | VERIFIED | VERIFIED | VERIFIED | OPEN* | OPEN | OPEN | OPEN | UNDECIDED |
| 2008 | 2008-11-04 | 2008-09-05 | VERIFIED | VERIFIED | VERIFIED | OPEN* | OPEN | OPEN | OPEN | UNDECIDED |
| 2012 | 2012-11-06 | 2012-09-07 | VERIFIED | VERIFIED | VERIFIED | OPEN* | OPEN | OPEN | OPEN | UNDECIDED |
| 2016 | 2016-11-08 | 2016-09-09 | VERIFIED | VERIFIED | VERIFIED | OPEN† | OPEN | OPEN | OPEN | UNDECIDED |
| 2020 | 2020-11-03 | 2020-09-04 | VERIFIED | VERIFIED | VERIFIED | OPEN† | OPEN | OPEN | OPEN | UNDECIDED |
| 2024 | 2024-11-05 | 2024-09-06 | VERIFIED | VERIFIED | OPEN | OPEN† | OPEN | BLOCKED | OPEN | UNDECIDED |

\* PollingReport field-date archive HTTP200; per-poll **release≤T−60** still unproven (strict PIT).  
† Publisher **publication dates** proven for examples ≤ T−60 (Marist/Quinnipiac/Pew/Gallup as applicable); full LV inventory not frozen; FTE CSV rejected.  
‡ PollingReport cycle pages HTTP404 this pass; need Roper/publisher archives.

Full machine-readable ledger: `coverage_release_ledger.json`.

## Poll archive probes (pass4)

| Source | Verdict |
|--------|---------|
| Wayback CDX USC Annenberg post-migration URL | **PARTIAL** — 16×200; earliest 20161128; **0 pre-2015-07-10** |
| USC original ASPX `120823LATimesPoll.aspx` WB 20120824 | **VERIFIED_PARTIAL** national **LV** horse-race ≤ T−60 (RV frame); pass4 retry |
| LAT print story WB 20120824 | **VERIFIED_PARTIAL** corroborating release 2012-08-23 |
| GQRR ID=2780 WB HTML 20120826 | **PARTIAL** — landing+crosstab links; PDF id_ **404** this pass |
| Quinnipiac 2016-08-25 legacy+PDF | **VERIFIED_PARTIAL** national **LV** ≤ T−60 (n=1498) |
| Quinnipiac 2012-07-11 legacy | **VERIFIED_PARTIAL** national **RV** ≤ T−60 |
| Gallup Daily Aug 2008 (6 URLs) | **VERIFIED_PARTIAL** **RV** ≤ T−60 |
| Gallup 110548 trial-heat | **CORRECTED** datePublished 2008-09-24 **gt** T−60 |
| Pew live | **BLOCKED_THIS_PASS** HTTP403 (prior hashes retained) |
| archive.today / LAT live | **BLOCKED/404** this pass |

## Poll archive probes (pass2)

| Source | Verdict |
|--------|---------|
| FTE `projects.*.president_polls_historical.csv` | **REJECT** — HTTP200 `text/html` → abcnews.com/politics |
| FTE GitHub `pres_pollaverages_1968-2016.csv` | Real CSV; **retrospective averages** ≠ PIT raw polls |
| Marist publisher presidential pages/PDFs | **VERIFIED_PARTIAL** release-date class (2016 / 2020 / 2024) |
| Quinnipiac 2024-08-29 HTML+PDF | **VERIFIED_PARTIAL** FOR RELEASE ≤ T−60 |
| Gallup trial-heat + 2020 articles | **VERIFIED_PARTIAL** (`datePublished`) |
| PollingReport cycle pages | **VERIFIED_PARTIAL** field-date (7 cycles); 1992/1996 **404** |
| Pew dated pages/PDFs | **VERIFIED_PARTIAL** (2020-08-13 ≤ T−60; 2024-09-09 > T−60) |
| Roper iPoll | **OPEN_PREFERRED** (landing OK; membership) |
| HuffPost Pollster API v2 | **BLOCKED_DEAD** (HTTP404) |

## Source table (summary)

See JSON `sources[]` for URLs, audit_status, license_redistribution.

Integrity contract sha256: `145046ff15faa3f6d71e07c817f1d68b4a8addcd7bafea6dbb98a44a0ba4227b`  
Protocol fields v0.1.0 sha256: `5833965da9b9790ebb657029ba69cb248ab51d2ea359ecc518451b504a5e584f`  
Protocol fields v0.1.1 sha256: `492a32342c47a582a763baeed0fa7aacc36f311b77cb83f78df4d3df93f4f2ec`

## Non-claims

No model fitting. No election-margin predictive accuracy. No outcome-driven feature shopping. No Exp002 / S1 / E2 exploratory in this pass. Gates preserved. `eligible_strict_PIT` remains **UNDECIDED** until real per-cycle release≤cutoff inventories exist.