{ "branch": "ELECTION-01", "created_utc": "2026-09-10T02:00:00Z", "updated_utc": "2026-09-10T16:15:00Z", "status": "AVAILABILITY_PROGRESS", "do_not_ingest_html_as_csv": true, "model_change": false, "fitting_authorized": false, "html_as_csv_incident": { "source": "FiveThirtyEight publisher-linked president_polls_historical.csv", "observation_prior": "HTTP 200 with text/html in Codex audit environment \u2014 REJECT as CSV", "observation_2026_09_10": "HTTP 302 to https://abcnews.go.com/politics with empty body \u2014 still REJECT as CSV", "status": "VERIFIED_REJECT", "observation_2026_09_10_polls_pass": "HTTP200 text/html final_url=https://abcnews.com/politics (projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/data/president_polls_historical.csv and polls-page/data/... both land on ABC HTML) \u2014 still REJECT as CSV", "observation_2026_09_10_pass2": "HTTP200 text/html final_url=https://abcnews.com/politics \u2014 still REJECT as CSV" }, "sources": [ { "id": "House_Clerk_Election_Statistics", "role": "authoritative_outcome_labels_primary_archive", "url": "https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/Election-Statistics/", "audit_status": "VERIFIED \u2014 all 15 presidential cycles 1968\u20132024 resolve to HTTP200 application/pdf on historycms.house.gov (sizes recorded per cycle)", "license_redistribution": "US_GOVERNMENT_WORK \u2014 U.S. House Clerk/Office of the Historian publication; public domain / unrestricted government work; record citation before republish of extracted tables", "notes": "Official state-certified federal election vote counts. Labels only \u2014 not pre-election features. National two-party denominator extraction+hash still OPEN." }, { "id": "FEC", "role": "authoritative_outcome_labels_secondary_or_primary_when_available", "url": "https://www.fec.gov/introduction-campaign-finance/election-results-and-voting-information/", "audit_status": "VERIFIED_PARTIAL \u2014 Federal Elections series linked 1982\u20132022 on landing; Official 2024 Presidential General Election Results PDF HTTP200; pre-1982 presidential cycles not in FEC Federal Elections series on site", "license_redistribution": "US_GOVERNMENT_WORK \u2014 FEC compilation of state-certified results; public domain / unrestricted government work; record citation before republish", "notes": "Compile official results from state election offices; FEC is a public compilation service." }, { "id": "MIT_Election_Lab", "role": "structured_secondary_outcome_crosscheck", "url": "https://electionlab.mit.edu/data", "audit_status": "VERIFIED_PARTIAL \u2014 statewide U.S. President 1976\u20132020 documented; county presidential 2000\u20132024; 1968\u20131972 out of statewide range (BLOCKED for MIT); 2024 statewide not in 1976\u20132020 file", "license_redistribution": "PUBLIC_DOMAIN \u2014 Harvard Dataverse MIT Election Lab presidential returns commonly released public domain (e.g. doi:10.7910/DVN/42MVDX); confirm exact license on download; record before republish", "notes": "Not independent predictive evidence. Dataset version/hash OPEN." }, { "id": "FiveThirtyEight_polls_repo", "role": "historical_poll_average_caveat", "url": "https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/tree/master/polls", "audit_status": "VERIFIED_CAVEAT \u2014 retrospective averages on GitHub; projects.* individual CSV endpoints REJECT (HTML); not automatic PIT predictors", "license_redistribution": "OPEN \u2014 GitHub/FiveThirtyEight/ABC terms; record before republish", "notes": "GitHub tree reachable. raw.githubusercontent.com/.../pres_pollaverages_1968-2016.csv is real CSV but retrospective averages (modeldate) \u2260 release-dated individual polls. Raw poll acquisition prefers publisher archives with publication dates (Marist/Gallup/Pew/Roper)." }, { "id": "FiveThirtyEight_president_polls_historical_csv_endpoint", "role": "negative_control_example", "url": "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/data/president_polls_historical.csv", "audit_status": "VERIFIED_REJECT \u2014 HTML-as-CSV / non-CSV: pass2 2026-09-10 HTTP200 text/html \u2192 abcnews.com/politics; DO NOT ingest as CSV", "license_redistribution": "n/a", "pass2_verified_utc": "2026-09-10T12:45:00Z" }, { "id": "ALFRED", "role": "economic_vintages", "url": "https://alfred.stlouisfed.org/help/downloaddata", "audit_status": "VERIFIED_POINTER \u2014 per-series vintage coverage OPEN; today revised FRED cannot stand in", "license_redistribution": "OPEN \u2014 St. Louis Fed terms; record before republish" }, { "id": "ANES", "role": "survey_affect_candidate_and_M4_trust_feature_source", "urls": [ "https://electionstudies.org/data-center/2024-time-series-study/", "https://electionstudies.org/data-center/anes-time-series-cumulative-data-file/" ], "audit_status": "VERIFIED_AVAILABILITY_RISK \u2014 2024 Full Release dated 2025-08-08 on study page; same-election microdata BLOCKED for 2024 PIT; other cycles OPEN pending contemporaneous proof", "license_redistribution": "RESTRICTED \u2014 do not publish respondent microdata to public Hub; metadata/code/links OK by default" }, { "id": "Voteview", "role": "elite_separation_candidate", "url": "https://voteview.com/data", "audit_status": "VERIFIED_POINTER \u2014 need historical vintage; existing N3/N4 panels not automatically prediction-safe; landing HTTP200", "license_redistribution": "OPEN \u2014 record before republish" }, { "id": "Roper_iPoll", "role": "preferred_poll_publisher_archive_pointer", "url": "https://ropercenter.cornell.edu/ipoll/", "audit_status": "OPEN_PREFERRED \u2014 landing HTTP200; product docs claim field dates + methodology on study/question records; archive built from public poll releases; membership often required for full download; per-cycle T\u221260 national LV inventory not yet extracted", "license_redistribution": "RESTRICTED_LIKELY \u2014 institutional membership/terms; do not republish microdata/toplines without license; metadata/links OK" }, { "id": "Marist_Poll_publisher", "role": "publisher_release_dated_national_poll_archive_example", "url": "https://maristpoll.marist.edu/latest-polls/", "audit_status": "VERIFIED_PARTIAL \u2014 multi-cycle publisher publication-date proof: 2016-08-05 HTML+PDF Immediate Release \u2264 T\u221260 (2016-09-09); 2016-09-23 HTML > T\u221260 boundary; 2020-06-26 HTML \u2264 T\u221260 (2020-09-04) + June/August 2020 national tables PDFs HTTP200 application/pdf; 2024-06-18 & 2024-08-06 \u2264 T\u221260; 2024-09-10 > T\u221260. Not a complete LV inventory.", "license_redistribution": "RESTRICTED \u2014 All Rights Reserved \u00a9 Marist University / Marist Institute for Public Opinion; Terms of Use; do not republish poll content without permission; links/metadata OK", "notes": "Strong release-date proof class for PIT across 2016/2020/2024. LV vs RV labeling must be read per release. Full per-cycle inventory still OPEN.", "evidence_urls": [ "https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/85-clinton-with-wide-lead-over-trump-nationally/", "https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/923-clinton-leads-trump-by-7-points-nationally/", "https://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/usapolls/US160801/Complete%20August%202016%20McClatchy-Marist%20Poll%20Survey%20Findings%20and%20Tables.pdf", "https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/npr-pbs-newshour-marist-poll-results-2020-presidential-election-and-trumps-approval-rating/", "https://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/NPR_PBS-NewsHour_Marist-Poll_USA-NOS-and-Tables_2006251102.pdf", "https://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/NPR_PBS-NewsHour_Marist-Poll_USA-NOS-and-TABLES_202008121039.pdf", "https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/the-2024-presidential-election-june-2024/", "https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/the-2024-presidential-contest-august-2024/", "https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/the-u-s-presidential-contest-september-2024/" ], "evidence_publication_dates": { "2016-08-05": "\u2264 T\u221260 2016-09-09 (HTML visible date + PDF Immediate Release)", "2016-09-23": "> T\u221260 2016-09-09 (excluded at primary cutoff)", "2020-06-26": "\u2264 T\u221260 2020-09-04 (HTML visible date; tables PDF field Jun 22\u201324)", "2020-08-tables-pdf": "field Aug 3\u201311 2020 PDF HTTP200; NPR story published 2020-08-14 \u2264 T\u221260", "2024-06-18": "\u2264 T\u221260 2024-09-06", "2024-08-06": "\u2264 T\u221260 2024-09-06", "2024-09-10": "> T\u221260 2024-09-06 (excluded at primary cutoff)" }, "pass2_verified_utc": "2026-09-10T12:45:00Z" }, { "id": "Gallup_publisher", "role": "publisher_dated_poll_reports_and_historical_trial_heat_trends", "urls": [ "https://news.gallup.com/poll/110548/Gallup-Presidential-Election-Trial-Heat-Trends.aspx", "https://news.gallup.com/topic/election-2024.aspx" ], "audit_status": "VERIFIED_PARTIAL \u2014 Trial-Heat Trends 1936\u20132008 page HTTP200 datePublished 2008-09-24 (retrospective compilation); 2020 publisher articles with datePublished \u2264 T\u221260 2020-09-04: 2020-08-14 / 2020-08-17 / 2020-08-24 (election-adjacent; not pure horse-race LV inventory). Individual horse-race release archive completeness OPEN.", "license_redistribution": "RESTRICTED \u2014 Gallup commercial/publisher terms; do not republish tables without license; links/citation OK", "notes": "Useful publisher datePublished metadata. Historical trends page is not itself a PIT raw-poll ledger.", "evidence_urls": [ "https://news.gallup.com/poll/110548/Gallup-Presidential-Election-Trial-Heat-Trends.aspx", "https://news.gallup.com/poll/317474/say-neither-candidate-good-president.aspx", "https://news.gallup.com/poll/317477/trump-job-approval-below-seven-key-issues.aspx", "https://news.gallup.com/poll/317771/democratic-edge-party-affiliation-shrinks.aspx", "https://news.gallup.com/topic/election-2024.aspx" ], "evidence_publication_dates": { "2008-09-24": "trial-heat trends compilation datePublished (retrospective)", "2020-08-14": "\u2264 T\u221260 2020-09-04 datePublished", "2020-08-17": "\u2264 T\u221260 2020-09-04 datePublished", "2020-08-24": "\u2264 T\u221260 2020-09-04 datePublished" }, "pass2_verified_utc": "2026-09-10T12:45:00Z" }, { "id": "PollingReport_com", "role": "secondary_field_date_poll_compilation_archive", "url": "https://www.pollingreport.com/", "audit_status": "VERIFIED_PARTIAL \u2014 cycle HTML archives HTTP200 with field-date tables: 2000.htm, wh04gen, wh08gen, wh12gen, wh16gen, 2020wh_g.htm, 2024.htm. 1992.htm / 1996.htm / wh8x/wh9xgen paths HTTP404 this pass (no early-cycle PollingReport pages found). Release timestamps rare (mostly field dates). Secondary compilation \u2260 publisher release proof.", "license_redistribution": "RESTRICTED \u2014 Copyright Polling Report, Inc. and polling/sponsoring organizations; some content subscriber-gated; do not republish tables wholesale; links OK", "notes": "Advance availability evidence for which cycles have compiled national trial-heat tables online. Strict eligible_strict_PIT still needs release\u2264cutoff from publishers/Roper.", "cycle_pages_verified_http200": { "2000": "https://www.pollingreport.com/2000.htm", "2004": "https://www.pollingreport.com/wh04gen.htm", "2008": "https://www.pollingreport.com/wh08gen.htm", "2012": "https://www.pollingreport.com/wh12gen.htm", "2016": "https://www.pollingreport.com/wh16gen.htm", "2020": "https://www.pollingreport.com/2020wh_g.htm", "2024": "https://www.pollingreport.com/2024.htm" }, "cycle_pages_http404": { "1992": "https://www.pollingreport.com/1992.htm", "1996": "https://www.pollingreport.com/1996.htm", "wh96gen": "https://www.pollingreport.com/wh96gen.htm", "wh92gen": "https://www.pollingreport.com/wh92gen.htm", "wh88gen": "https://www.pollingreport.com/wh88gen.htm", "wh84gen": "https://www.pollingreport.com/wh84gen.htm", "wh80gen": "https://www.pollingreport.com/wh80gen.htm" }, "pass2_verified_utc": "2026-09-10T12:45:00Z" }, { "id": "Pew_Research_publisher_releases", "role": "publisher_dated_topline_pdf_and_report_archive", "url": "https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/", "audit_status": "VERIFIED_PARTIAL \u2014 dated publisher proof: 2020-08-13 politics article HTTP200 with article:published_time / datePublished 2020-08-13T14:10:20-04:00 \u2264 T\u221260 2020-09-04; 2024 topline PDF PP_2024.9.9_harris-trump_TOPLINE.pdf HTTP200 application/pdf path date 2024-09-09 > T\u221260 2024-09-06. Useful release-date proof class; not a full multi-cycle horse-race inventory.", "license_redistribution": "RESTRICTED \u2014 Pew Research Center terms; typically allow citation with attribution; do not bulk-republish datasets/PDFs without checking terms; links/metadata OK", "notes": "Prefer for attitude/context features; horse-race LV coverage sparse vs aggregators.", "evidence_urls": [ "https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2020/08/13/election-2020-voters-are-highly-engaged-but-nearly-half-expect-to-have-difficulties-voting/", "https://www.pewresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/20/2024/09/PP_2024.9.9_harris-trump_TOPLINE.pdf", "https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/" ], "evidence_publication_dates": { "2020-08-13": "\u2264 T\u221260 2020-09-04 (datePublished)", "2024-09-09": "> T\u221260 2024-09-06 (topline PDF path date)" }, "pass2_verified_utc": "2026-09-10T12:45:00Z" }, { "id": "Quinnipiac_University_Poll", "role": "publisher_release_dated_national_poll_archive_example", "url": "https://poll.qu.edu/poll-results", "audit_status": "VERIFIED_PARTIAL \u2014 2024-08-29 national release HTTP200 (poll-release?releaseid=3903) with visible August 29, 2024; PDF https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/us/us08292024_unwt24.pdf HTTP200 application/pdf text 'FOR RELEASE: AUGUST 29, 2024' \u2264 T\u221260 2024-09-06. Multi-cycle inventory OPEN.", "license_redistribution": "RESTRICTED \u2014 Quinnipiac University Poll terms; citation OK; do not republish tables wholesale without permission; links/metadata OK", "notes": "Strong FOR RELEASE dated PDF+HTML class for PIT. LV labeling present on 2024-08-29 release.", "evidence_urls": [ "https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3903", "https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/us/us08292024_unwt24.pdf" ], "evidence_publication_dates": { "2024-08-29": "\u2264 T\u221260 2024-09-06 (HTML + FOR RELEASE PDF)" }, "pass2_verified_utc": "2026-09-10T12:45:00Z" }, { "id": "HuffPost_Pollster_API", "role": "historical_aggregator_api_negative_probe", "url": "https://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/api/v2/polls", "audit_status": "BLOCKED_DEAD \u2014 HTTP404 on v2 polls endpoint this pass; API no longer maintained (community reports). Do not depend on for new acquisition.", "license_redistribution": "n/a" } ], "licenses_policy": "No paid data ordered. Record source terms, licenses, redistribution permissions before republishing. Public accessibility is not a blanket redistribution license. Publish metadata/code/links by default; do not publish respondent microdata to the public Hub. US government works (House Clerk, FEC) treated as public domain with citation required.", "availability_matrix": [ { "cycle": 1968, "election_day": "1968-11-05", "cutoff_T60_America_New_York_end_of_day": "1968-09-06", "cutoff_T30_sensitivity_only": "1968-10-06", "outcome_House_Clerk": "VERIFIED \u2014 Clerk Election Statistics PDF HTTP200 application/pdf size_bytes=2172344 via https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/1968election/ \u2192 https://historycms.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/1968election/; national two-party totals extraction+hash OPEN; labels not PIT features", "outcome_FEC": "OPEN \u2014 FEC Federal Elections series on fec.gov starts 1982; use House Clerk primary for this cycle; FEC totals not pinned", "outcome_MIT_Election_Lab": "BLOCKED \u2014 MIT statewide presidential file documents 1976\u20132020 only; cycle outside range", "polls_public_by_cutoff": "OPEN \u2014 no PollingReport cycle page verified this pass; Gallup 1936\u20132008 trial-heat trends page is retrospective compilation only; need Roper/publisher release\u2264T\u221260 proof; FTE CSV BLOCKED", "economic_ALFRED_vintages_by_cutoff": "OPEN \u2014 ALFRED is correct vintage tool; per-series coverage matrix not yet audited", "ANES_availability_by_cutoff": "OPEN \u2014 contemporaneous public availability not yet proven per cycle; default exclude same-election microdata until release\u2264cutoff shown", "Voteview_vintage_by_cutoff": "OPEN \u2014 need historical vintage or frozen then-available refit; landing reachable", "SRP_adjacent_candidate_availability": "OPEN \u2014 M4 feature named in v0.1.1 as trust_fed_gov_precutoff_level; per-cycle pre-cutoff availability not yet proven", "eligible_strict_PIT": "UNDECIDED", "exclusion_reason": null, "evidence_notes": { "house_clerk_pdf_verified_utc": "2026-09-10T03:29:29Z", "house_clerk_bytes": 2172344, "no_fitting": true, "no_outcome_join": true, "polls_pass_utc": "2026-09-10T04:11:59Z", "fte_csv_reject": true, "release_date_proof": "NOT_YET_PROVEN", "polls_pass2_utc": "2026-09-10T12:45:00Z" } }, { "cycle": 1972, "election_day": "1972-11-07", "cutoff_T60_America_New_York_end_of_day": "1972-09-08", "cutoff_T30_sensitivity_only": "1972-10-08", "outcome_House_Clerk": "VERIFIED \u2014 Clerk Election Statistics PDF HTTP200 application/pdf size_bytes=2251020 via https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/1972election/ \u2192 https://historycms.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/1972election/; national two-party totals extraction+hash OPEN; labels not PIT features", "outcome_FEC": "OPEN \u2014 FEC Federal Elections series on fec.gov starts 1982; use House Clerk primary for this cycle; FEC totals not pinned", "outcome_MIT_Election_Lab": "BLOCKED \u2014 MIT statewide presidential file documents 1976\u20132020 only; cycle outside range", "polls_public_by_cutoff": "OPEN \u2014 no PollingReport cycle page verified this pass; Gallup 1936\u20132008 trial-heat trends page is retrospective compilation only; need Roper/publisher release\u2264T\u221260 proof; FTE CSV BLOCKED", "economic_ALFRED_vintages_by_cutoff": "OPEN \u2014 ALFRED is correct vintage tool; per-series coverage matrix not yet audited", "ANES_availability_by_cutoff": "OPEN \u2014 contemporaneous public availability not yet proven per cycle; default exclude same-election microdata until release\u2264cutoff shown", "Voteview_vintage_by_cutoff": "OPEN \u2014 need historical vintage or frozen then-available refit; landing reachable", "SRP_adjacent_candidate_availability": "OPEN \u2014 M4 feature named in v0.1.1 as trust_fed_gov_precutoff_level; per-cycle pre-cutoff availability not yet proven", "eligible_strict_PIT": "UNDECIDED", "exclusion_reason": null, "evidence_notes": { "house_clerk_pdf_verified_utc": "2026-09-10T03:29:29Z", "house_clerk_bytes": 2251020, "no_fitting": true, "no_outcome_join": true, "polls_pass_utc": "2026-09-10T04:11:59Z", "fte_csv_reject": true, "release_date_proof": "NOT_YET_PROVEN", "polls_pass2_utc": "2026-09-10T12:45:00Z" } }, { "cycle": 1976, "election_day": "1976-11-02", "cutoff_T60_America_New_York_end_of_day": "1976-09-03", "cutoff_T30_sensitivity_only": "1976-10-03", "outcome_House_Clerk": "VERIFIED \u2014 Clerk Election Statistics PDF HTTP200 application/pdf size_bytes=2585668 via https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/1976election/ \u2192 https://historycms.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/1976election/; national two-party totals extraction+hash OPEN; labels not PIT features", "outcome_FEC": "OPEN \u2014 FEC Federal Elections series on fec.gov starts 1982; use House Clerk primary for this cycle; FEC totals not pinned", "outcome_MIT_Election_Lab": "VERIFIED \u2014 in MIT statewide U.S. President 1976\u20132020 catalog (landing 200); version/hash OPEN; secondary check only", "polls_public_by_cutoff": "OPEN \u2014 no PollingReport cycle page verified this pass; Gallup 1936\u20132008 trial-heat trends page is retrospective compilation only; need Roper/publisher release\u2264T\u221260 proof; FTE CSV BLOCKED", "economic_ALFRED_vintages_by_cutoff": "OPEN \u2014 ALFRED is correct vintage tool; per-series coverage matrix not yet audited", "ANES_availability_by_cutoff": "OPEN \u2014 contemporaneous public availability not yet proven per cycle; default exclude same-election microdata until release\u2264cutoff shown", "Voteview_vintage_by_cutoff": "OPEN \u2014 need historical vintage or frozen then-available refit; landing reachable", "SRP_adjacent_candidate_availability": "OPEN \u2014 M4 feature named in v0.1.1 as trust_fed_gov_precutoff_level; per-cycle pre-cutoff availability not yet proven", "eligible_strict_PIT": "UNDECIDED", "exclusion_reason": null, "evidence_notes": { "house_clerk_pdf_verified_utc": "2026-09-10T03:29:29Z", "house_clerk_bytes": 2585668, "no_fitting": true, "no_outcome_join": true, "polls_pass_utc": "2026-09-10T04:11:59Z", "fte_csv_reject": true, "release_date_proof": "NOT_YET_PROVEN", "polls_pass2_utc": "2026-09-10T12:45:00Z" } }, { "cycle": 1980, "election_day": "1980-11-04", "cutoff_T60_America_New_York_end_of_day": "1980-09-05", "cutoff_T30_sensitivity_only": "1980-10-05", "outcome_House_Clerk": "VERIFIED \u2014 Clerk Election Statistics PDF HTTP200 application/pdf size_bytes=2964920 via https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/1980election/ \u2192 https://historycms.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/1980election/; national two-party totals extraction+hash OPEN; labels not PIT features", "outcome_FEC": "OPEN \u2014 FEC Federal Elections series on fec.gov starts 1982; use House Clerk primary for this cycle; FEC totals not pinned", "outcome_MIT_Election_Lab": "VERIFIED \u2014 in MIT statewide U.S. President 1976\u20132020 catalog (landing 200); version/hash OPEN; secondary check only", "polls_public_by_cutoff": "OPEN \u2014 no PollingReport cycle page verified this pass; Gallup 1936\u20132008 trial-heat trends page is retrospective compilation only; need Roper/publisher release\u2264T\u221260 proof; FTE CSV BLOCKED", "economic_ALFRED_vintages_by_cutoff": "OPEN \u2014 ALFRED is correct vintage tool; per-series coverage matrix not yet audited", "ANES_availability_by_cutoff": "OPEN \u2014 contemporaneous public availability not yet proven per cycle; default exclude same-election microdata until release\u2264cutoff shown", "Voteview_vintage_by_cutoff": "OPEN \u2014 need historical vintage or frozen then-available refit; landing reachable", "SRP_adjacent_candidate_availability": "OPEN \u2014 M4 feature named in v0.1.1 as trust_fed_gov_precutoff_level; per-cycle pre-cutoff availability not yet proven", "eligible_strict_PIT": "UNDECIDED", "exclusion_reason": null, "evidence_notes": { "house_clerk_pdf_verified_utc": "2026-09-10T03:29:29Z", "house_clerk_bytes": 2964920, "no_fitting": true, "no_outcome_join": true, "polls_pass_utc": "2026-09-10T04:11:59Z", "fte_csv_reject": true, "release_date_proof": "NOT_YET_PROVEN", "polls_pass2_utc": "2026-09-10T12:45:00Z" } }, { "cycle": 1984, "election_day": "1984-11-06", "cutoff_T60_America_New_York_end_of_day": "1984-09-07", "cutoff_T30_sensitivity_only": "1984-10-07", "outcome_House_Clerk": "VERIFIED \u2014 Clerk Election Statistics PDF HTTP200 application/pdf size_bytes=2784672 via https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/1984election/ \u2192 https://historycms.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/1984election/; national two-party totals extraction+hash OPEN; labels not PIT features", "outcome_FEC": "VERIFIED \u2014 FEC Federal Elections publication linked on fec.gov landing for this cycle; totals hash/two-party denom OPEN; labels not PIT features", "outcome_MIT_Election_Lab": "VERIFIED \u2014 in MIT statewide U.S. President 1976\u20132020 catalog (landing 200); version/hash OPEN; secondary check only", "polls_public_by_cutoff": "OPEN \u2014 no PollingReport cycle page verified this pass; Gallup 1936\u20132008 trial-heat trends page is retrospective compilation only; need Roper/publisher release\u2264T\u221260 proof; FTE CSV BLOCKED", "economic_ALFRED_vintages_by_cutoff": "OPEN \u2014 ALFRED is correct vintage tool; per-series coverage matrix not yet audited", "ANES_availability_by_cutoff": "OPEN \u2014 contemporaneous public availability not yet proven per cycle; default exclude same-election microdata until release\u2264cutoff shown", "Voteview_vintage_by_cutoff": "OPEN \u2014 need historical vintage or frozen then-available refit; landing reachable", "SRP_adjacent_candidate_availability": "OPEN \u2014 M4 feature named in v0.1.1 as trust_fed_gov_precutoff_level; per-cycle pre-cutoff availability not yet proven", "eligible_strict_PIT": "UNDECIDED", "exclusion_reason": null, "evidence_notes": { "house_clerk_pdf_verified_utc": "2026-09-10T03:29:29Z", "house_clerk_bytes": 2784672, "no_fitting": true, "no_outcome_join": true, "polls_pass_utc": "2026-09-10T04:11:59Z", "fte_csv_reject": true, "release_date_proof": "NOT_YET_PROVEN", "polls_pass2_utc": "2026-09-10T12:45:00Z" } }, { "cycle": 1988, "election_day": "1988-11-08", "cutoff_T60_America_New_York_end_of_day": "1988-09-09", "cutoff_T30_sensitivity_only": "1988-10-09", "outcome_House_Clerk": "VERIFIED \u2014 Clerk Election Statistics PDF HTTP200 application/pdf size_bytes=2705080 via https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/1988election/ \u2192 https://historycms.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/1988election/; national two-party totals extraction+hash OPEN; labels not PIT features", "outcome_FEC": "VERIFIED \u2014 FEC Federal Elections publication linked on fec.gov landing for this cycle; totals hash/two-party denom OPEN; labels not PIT features", "outcome_MIT_Election_Lab": "VERIFIED \u2014 in MIT statewide U.S. President 1976\u20132020 catalog (landing 200); version/hash OPEN; secondary check only", "polls_public_by_cutoff": "OPEN \u2014 no PollingReport cycle page verified this pass; Gallup 1936\u20132008 trial-heat trends page is retrospective compilation only; need Roper/publisher release\u2264T\u221260 proof; FTE CSV BLOCKED", "economic_ALFRED_vintages_by_cutoff": "OPEN \u2014 ALFRED is correct vintage tool; per-series coverage matrix not yet audited", "ANES_availability_by_cutoff": "OPEN \u2014 contemporaneous public availability not yet proven per cycle; default exclude same-election microdata until release\u2264cutoff shown", "Voteview_vintage_by_cutoff": "OPEN \u2014 need historical vintage or frozen then-available refit; landing reachable", "SRP_adjacent_candidate_availability": "OPEN \u2014 M4 feature named in v0.1.1 as trust_fed_gov_precutoff_level; per-cycle pre-cutoff availability not yet proven", "eligible_strict_PIT": "UNDECIDED", "exclusion_reason": null, "evidence_notes": { "house_clerk_pdf_verified_utc": "2026-09-10T03:29:29Z", "house_clerk_bytes": 2705080, "no_fitting": true, "no_outcome_join": true, "polls_pass_utc": "2026-09-10T04:11:59Z", "fte_csv_reject": true, "release_date_proof": "NOT_YET_PROVEN", "polls_pass2_utc": "2026-09-10T12:45:00Z" } }, { "cycle": 1992, "election_day": "1992-11-03", "cutoff_T60_America_New_York_end_of_day": "1992-09-04", "cutoff_T30_sensitivity_only": "1992-10-04", "outcome_House_Clerk": "VERIFIED \u2014 Clerk Election Statistics PDF HTTP200 application/pdf size_bytes=3479297 via https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/1992election/ \u2192 https://historycms.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/1992election/; national two-party totals extraction+hash OPEN; labels not PIT features", "outcome_FEC": "VERIFIED \u2014 FEC Federal Elections publication linked on fec.gov landing for this cycle; totals hash/two-party denom OPEN; labels not PIT features", "outcome_MIT_Election_Lab": "VERIFIED \u2014 in MIT statewide U.S. President 1976\u20132020 catalog (landing 200); version/hash OPEN; secondary check only", "polls_public_by_cutoff": "OPEN \u2014 PollingReport cycle pages HTTP404 this pass (1992.htm/1996.htm/wh9xgen); Gallup 1936\u20132008 trial-heat trends retrospective only; need Roper/publisher release\u2264T\u221260 proof; FTE CSV BLOCKED", "economic_ALFRED_vintages_by_cutoff": "OPEN \u2014 ALFRED is correct vintage tool; per-series coverage matrix not yet audited", "ANES_availability_by_cutoff": "OPEN \u2014 contemporaneous public availability not yet proven per cycle; default exclude same-election microdata until release\u2264cutoff shown", "Voteview_vintage_by_cutoff": "OPEN \u2014 need historical vintage or frozen then-available refit; landing reachable", "SRP_adjacent_candidate_availability": "OPEN \u2014 M4 feature named in v0.1.1 as trust_fed_gov_precutoff_level; per-cycle pre-cutoff availability not yet proven", "eligible_strict_PIT": "UNDECIDED", "exclusion_reason": null, "evidence_notes": { "house_clerk_pdf_verified_utc": "2026-09-10T03:29:29Z", "house_clerk_bytes": 3479297, "no_fitting": true, "no_outcome_join": true, "polls_pass_utc": "2026-09-10T04:11:59Z", "fte_csv_reject": true, "release_date_proof": "NOT_YET_PROVEN", "polls_pass2_utc": "2026-09-10T12:45:00Z", "pollingreport_http404": true } }, { "cycle": 1996, "election_day": "1996-11-05", "cutoff_T60_America_New_York_end_of_day": "1996-09-06", "cutoff_T30_sensitivity_only": "1996-10-06", "outcome_House_Clerk": "VERIFIED \u2014 Clerk Election Statistics PDF HTTP200 application/pdf size_bytes=3483869 via https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/1996election/ \u2192 https://historycms.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/1996election/; national two-party totals extraction+hash OPEN; labels not PIT features", "outcome_FEC": "VERIFIED \u2014 FEC Federal Elections publication linked on fec.gov landing for this cycle; totals hash/two-party denom OPEN; labels not PIT features", "outcome_MIT_Election_Lab": "VERIFIED \u2014 in MIT statewide U.S. President 1976\u20132020 catalog (landing 200); version/hash OPEN; secondary check only", "polls_public_by_cutoff": "OPEN \u2014 PollingReport cycle pages HTTP404 this pass (1992.htm/1996.htm/wh9xgen); Gallup 1936\u20132008 trial-heat trends retrospective only; need Roper/publisher release\u2264T\u221260 proof; FTE CSV BLOCKED", "economic_ALFRED_vintages_by_cutoff": "OPEN \u2014 ALFRED is correct vintage tool; per-series coverage matrix not yet audited", "ANES_availability_by_cutoff": "OPEN \u2014 contemporaneous public availability not yet proven per cycle; default exclude same-election microdata until release\u2264cutoff shown", "Voteview_vintage_by_cutoff": "OPEN \u2014 need historical vintage or frozen then-available refit; landing reachable", "SRP_adjacent_candidate_availability": "OPEN \u2014 M4 feature named in v0.1.1 as trust_fed_gov_precutoff_level; per-cycle pre-cutoff availability not yet proven", "eligible_strict_PIT": "UNDECIDED", "exclusion_reason": null, "evidence_notes": { "house_clerk_pdf_verified_utc": "2026-09-10T03:29:29Z", "house_clerk_bytes": 3483869, "no_fitting": true, "no_outcome_join": true, "polls_pass_utc": "2026-09-10T04:11:59Z", "fte_csv_reject": true, "release_date_proof": "NOT_YET_PROVEN", "polls_pass2_utc": "2026-09-10T12:45:00Z", "pollingreport_http404": true } }, { "cycle": 2000, "election_day": "2000-11-07", "cutoff_T60_America_New_York_end_of_day": "2000-09-08", "cutoff_T30_sensitivity_only": "2000-10-08", "outcome_House_Clerk": "VERIFIED \u2014 Clerk Election Statistics PDF HTTP200 application/pdf size_bytes=363824 via https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/2000election/ \u2192 https://historycms.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/2000election/; national two-party totals extraction+hash OPEN; labels not PIT features", "outcome_FEC": "VERIFIED \u2014 FEC Federal Elections publication linked on fec.gov landing for this cycle; totals hash/two-party denom OPEN; labels not PIT features", "outcome_MIT_Election_Lab": "VERIFIED \u2014 in MIT statewide U.S. President 1976\u20132020 catalog (landing 200); version/hash OPEN; secondary check only", "polls_public_by_cutoff": "OPEN \u2014 PollingReport field-date archive VERIFIED HTTP200 for this cycle; Gallup trial-heat trends retrospective pointer (pre-2008 coverage on 1936\u20132008 page); per-poll publisher release\u2264T\u221260 NOT yet proven; Roper preferred for release-dated records; FTE CSV BLOCKED", "economic_ALFRED_vintages_by_cutoff": "OPEN \u2014 ALFRED is correct vintage tool; per-series coverage matrix not yet audited", "ANES_availability_by_cutoff": "OPEN \u2014 contemporaneous public availability not yet proven per cycle; default exclude same-election microdata until release\u2264cutoff shown", "Voteview_vintage_by_cutoff": "OPEN \u2014 need historical vintage or frozen then-available refit; landing reachable", "SRP_adjacent_candidate_availability": "OPEN \u2014 M4 feature named in v0.1.1 as trust_fed_gov_precutoff_level; per-cycle pre-cutoff availability not yet proven", "eligible_strict_PIT": "UNDECIDED", "exclusion_reason": null, "evidence_notes": { "house_clerk_pdf_verified_utc": "2026-09-10T03:29:29Z", "house_clerk_bytes": 363824, "no_fitting": true, "no_outcome_join": true, "polls_pass_utc": "2026-09-10T04:11:59Z", "fte_csv_reject": true, "pollingreport_page": "https://www.pollingreport.com/2000.htm", "release_date_proof": "NOT_YET_PROVEN_PER_POLL \u2014 PollingReport field-date only", "polls_pass2_utc": "2026-09-10T12:45:00Z" } }, { "cycle": 2004, "election_day": "2004-11-02", "cutoff_T60_America_New_York_end_of_day": "2004-09-03", "cutoff_T30_sensitivity_only": "2004-10-03", "outcome_House_Clerk": "VERIFIED \u2014 Clerk Election Statistics PDF HTTP200 application/pdf size_bytes=330155 via https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/2004election/ \u2192 https://historycms.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/2004election/; national two-party totals extraction+hash OPEN; labels not PIT features", "outcome_FEC": "VERIFIED \u2014 FEC Federal Elections publication linked on fec.gov landing for this cycle; totals hash/two-party denom OPEN; labels not PIT features", "outcome_MIT_Election_Lab": "VERIFIED \u2014 in MIT statewide U.S. President 1976\u20132020 catalog (landing 200); version/hash OPEN; secondary check only", "polls_public_by_cutoff": "OPEN \u2014 PollingReport field-date archive VERIFIED HTTP200 for this cycle; Gallup trial-heat trends retrospective pointer (pre-2008 coverage on 1936\u20132008 page); per-poll publisher release\u2264T\u221260 NOT yet proven; Roper preferred for release-dated records; FTE CSV BLOCKED", "economic_ALFRED_vintages_by_cutoff": "OPEN \u2014 ALFRED is correct vintage tool; per-series coverage matrix not yet audited", "ANES_availability_by_cutoff": "OPEN \u2014 contemporaneous public availability not yet proven per cycle; default exclude same-election microdata until release\u2264cutoff shown", "Voteview_vintage_by_cutoff": "OPEN \u2014 need historical vintage or frozen then-available refit; landing reachable", "SRP_adjacent_candidate_availability": "OPEN \u2014 M4 feature named in v0.1.1 as trust_fed_gov_precutoff_level; per-cycle pre-cutoff availability not yet proven", "eligible_strict_PIT": "UNDECIDED", "exclusion_reason": null, "evidence_notes": { "house_clerk_pdf_verified_utc": "2026-09-10T03:29:29Z", "house_clerk_bytes": 330155, "no_fitting": true, "no_outcome_join": true, "polls_pass_utc": "2026-09-10T04:11:59Z", "fte_csv_reject": true, "pollingreport_page": "https://www.pollingreport.com/wh04gen.htm", "release_date_proof": "NOT_YET_PROVEN_PER_POLL \u2014 PollingReport field-date only", "polls_pass2_utc": "2026-09-10T12:45:00Z" } }, { "cycle": 2008, "election_day": "2008-11-04", "cutoff_T60_America_New_York_end_of_day": "2008-09-05", "cutoff_T30_sensitivity_only": "2008-10-05", "outcome_House_Clerk": "VERIFIED \u2014 Clerk Election Statistics PDF HTTP200 application/pdf size_bytes=340249 via https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/2008election/ \u2192 https://historycms.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/2008election/; national two-party totals extraction+hash OPEN; labels not PIT features", "outcome_FEC": "VERIFIED \u2014 FEC Federal Elections publication linked on fec.gov landing for this cycle; totals hash/two-party denom OPEN; labels not PIT features", "outcome_MIT_Election_Lab": "VERIFIED \u2014 in MIT statewide U.S. President 1976\u20132020 catalog (landing 200); version/hash OPEN; secondary check only", "polls_public_by_cutoff": "OPEN* \u2014 Gallup Daily 2008 RV publication dates 2008-08-01/06/11/14/22/29 \u2264T-60 hashed (pass4); PollingReport wh08gen.htm field-date; full LV inventory NOT frozen; FTE CSV BLOCKED", "economic_ALFRED_vintages_by_cutoff": "OPEN \u2014 ALFRED is correct vintage tool; per-series coverage matrix not yet audited", "ANES_availability_by_cutoff": "OPEN \u2014 contemporaneous public availability not yet proven per cycle; default exclude same-election microdata until release\u2264cutoff shown", "Voteview_vintage_by_cutoff": "OPEN \u2014 need historical vintage or frozen then-available refit; landing reachable", "SRP_adjacent_candidate_availability": "OPEN \u2014 M4 feature named in v0.1.1 as trust_fed_gov_precutoff_level; per-cycle pre-cutoff availability not yet proven", "eligible_strict_PIT": "UNDECIDED", "exclusion_reason": null, "evidence_notes": { "house_clerk_pdf_verified_utc": "2026-09-10T03:29:29Z", "house_clerk_bytes": 340249, "no_fitting": true, "no_outcome_join": true, "polls_pass_utc": "2026-09-10T04:11:59Z", "fte_csv_reject": true, "pollingreport_page": "https://www.pollingreport.com/wh08gen.htm", "release_date_proof": "PARTIAL_EXAMPLES", "polls_pass2_utc": "2026-09-10T12:45:00Z", "polls_pass4_utc": "2026-09-10T16:15:00Z", "gallup_pub_dates_le_T60": [ "2008-08-01", "2008-08-06", "2008-08-11", "2008-08-14", "2008-08-22", "2008-08-29" ] } }, { "cycle": 2012, "election_day": "2012-11-06", "cutoff_T60_America_New_York_end_of_day": "2012-09-07", "cutoff_T30_sensitivity_only": "2012-10-07", "outcome_House_Clerk": "VERIFIED \u2014 Clerk Election Statistics PDF HTTP200 application/pdf size_bytes=271350 via https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/2012election/ \u2192 https://historycms.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/2012election/; national two-party totals extraction+hash OPEN; labels not PIT features", "outcome_FEC": "VERIFIED \u2014 FEC Federal Elections publication linked on fec.gov landing for this cycle; totals hash/two-party denom OPEN; labels not PIT features", "outcome_MIT_Election_Lab": "VERIFIED \u2014 in MIT statewide U.S. President 1976\u20132020 catalog (landing 200); version/hash OPEN; secondary check only", "polls_public_by_cutoff": "OPEN* \u2014 USC Annenberg original ASPX Wayback 2012-08-24 \u2264T-60 LV horse-race hashed (pass4 retry); Quinnipiac 2012-07-11 national RV \u2264T-60; PollingReport wh12gen.htm field-date; post-migration USC URL still NOT_ELIGIBLE_YET; full LV inventory NOT frozen; FTE CSV BLOCKED", "economic_ALFRED_vintages_by_cutoff": "OPEN \u2014 ALFRED is correct vintage tool; per-series coverage matrix not yet audited", "ANES_availability_by_cutoff": "OPEN \u2014 contemporaneous public availability not yet proven per cycle; default exclude same-election microdata until release\u2264cutoff shown", "Voteview_vintage_by_cutoff": "OPEN \u2014 need historical vintage or frozen then-available refit; landing reachable", "SRP_adjacent_candidate_availability": "OPEN \u2014 M4 feature named in v0.1.1 as trust_fed_gov_precutoff_level; per-cycle pre-cutoff availability not yet proven", "eligible_strict_PIT": "UNDECIDED", "exclusion_reason": null, "evidence_notes": { "house_clerk_pdf_verified_utc": "2026-09-10T03:29:29Z", "house_clerk_bytes": 271350, "no_fitting": true, "no_outcome_join": true, "polls_pass_utc": "2026-09-10T04:11:59Z", "fte_csv_reject": true, "pollingreport_page": "https://www.pollingreport.com/wh12gen.htm", "release_date_proof": "PARTIAL_EXAMPLES", "polls_pass2_utc": "2026-09-10T12:45:00Z", "polls_pass4_utc": "2026-09-10T16:15:00Z", "usc_aspx_wayback_le_T60": [ "2012-08-23" ], "quinnipiac_pub_dates_le_T60": [ "2012-07-11" ] } }, { "cycle": 2016, "election_day": "2016-11-08", "cutoff_T60_America_New_York_end_of_day": "2016-09-09", "cutoff_T30_sensitivity_only": "2016-10-09", "outcome_House_Clerk": "VERIFIED \u2014 Clerk Election Statistics PDF HTTP200 application/pdf size_bytes=663413 via https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/2016election/ \u2192 https://historycms.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/2016election/; national two-party totals extraction+hash OPEN; labels not PIT features", "outcome_FEC": "VERIFIED \u2014 FEC Federal Elections publication linked on fec.gov landing for this cycle; totals hash/two-party denom OPEN; labels not PIT features", "outcome_MIT_Election_Lab": "VERIFIED \u2014 in MIT statewide U.S. President 1976\u20132020 catalog (landing 200); version/hash OPEN; secondary check only", "polls_public_by_cutoff": "OPEN\u2020 \u2014 Marist 2016-08-05 \u2264T-60 (RV headline); Quinnipiac 2016-08-25 national LV \u2264T-60 hashed (pass4); 2016-09-23 >T-60; PollingReport wh16gen.htm; full LV inventory NOT frozen; FTE CSV BLOCKED", "economic_ALFRED_vintages_by_cutoff": "OPEN \u2014 ALFRED is correct vintage tool; per-series coverage matrix not yet audited", "ANES_availability_by_cutoff": "OPEN \u2014 contemporaneous public availability not yet proven per cycle; default exclude same-election microdata until release\u2264cutoff shown", "Voteview_vintage_by_cutoff": "OPEN \u2014 need historical vintage or frozen then-available refit; landing reachable", "SRP_adjacent_candidate_availability": "OPEN \u2014 M4 feature named in v0.1.1 as trust_fed_gov_precutoff_level; per-cycle pre-cutoff availability not yet proven", "eligible_strict_PIT": "UNDECIDED", "exclusion_reason": null, "evidence_notes": { "house_clerk_pdf_verified_utc": "2026-09-10T03:29:29Z", "house_clerk_bytes": 663413, "no_fitting": true, "no_outcome_join": true, "polls_pass_utc": "2026-09-10T04:11:59Z", "fte_csv_reject": true, "pollingreport_page": "https://www.pollingreport.com/wh16gen.htm", "release_date_proof": "PARTIAL_EXAMPLES", "polls_pass2_utc": "2026-09-10T12:45:00Z", "marist_pub_dates_le_T60": [ "2016-08-05" ], "marist_pub_dates_gt_T60": [ "2016-09-23" ], "marist_pdf_immediate_release": "2016-08-05", "quinnipiac_pub_dates_le_T60": [ "2016-08-25" ], "polls_pass4_utc": "2026-09-10T16:15:00Z" } }, { "cycle": 2020, "election_day": "2020-11-03", "cutoff_T60_America_New_York_end_of_day": "2020-09-04", "cutoff_T30_sensitivity_only": "2020-10-04", "outcome_House_Clerk": "VERIFIED \u2014 Clerk Election Statistics PDF HTTP200 application/pdf size_bytes=602169 via https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/2020election/ \u2192 https://historycms.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/2020election/; national two-party totals extraction+hash OPEN; labels not PIT features", "outcome_FEC": "VERIFIED \u2014 FEC Federal Elections publication linked on fec.gov landing for this cycle; totals hash/two-party denom OPEN; labels not PIT features", "outcome_MIT_Election_Lab": "VERIFIED \u2014 in MIT statewide U.S. President 1976\u20132020 catalog (landing 200); version/hash OPEN; secondary check only", "polls_public_by_cutoff": "OPEN\u2020 \u2014 Marist publisher 2020-06-26 HTML \u2264 T\u221260 + Jun/Aug 2020 tables PDFs HTTP200; Pew 2020-08-13 datePublished \u2264 T\u221260; Gallup 2020-08-14/17/24 datePublished \u2264 T\u221260 (election-adjacent); PollingReport 2020wh_g.htm HTTP200; full LV inventory NOT frozen; FTE CSV BLOCKED", "economic_ALFRED_vintages_by_cutoff": "OPEN \u2014 ALFRED is correct vintage tool; per-series coverage matrix not yet audited", "ANES_availability_by_cutoff": "OPEN \u2014 contemporaneous public availability not yet proven per cycle; default exclude same-election microdata until release\u2264cutoff shown", "Voteview_vintage_by_cutoff": "OPEN \u2014 need historical vintage or frozen then-available refit; landing reachable", "SRP_adjacent_candidate_availability": "OPEN \u2014 M4 feature named in v0.1.1 as trust_fed_gov_precutoff_level; per-cycle pre-cutoff availability not yet proven", "eligible_strict_PIT": "UNDECIDED", "exclusion_reason": null, "evidence_notes": { "house_clerk_pdf_verified_utc": "2026-09-10T03:29:29Z", "house_clerk_bytes": 602169, "no_fitting": true, "no_outcome_join": true, "polls_pass_utc": "2026-09-10T04:11:59Z", "fte_csv_reject": true, "pollingreport_page": "https://www.pollingreport.com/2020wh_g.htm", "release_date_proof": "PARTIAL_EXAMPLES", "polls_pass2_utc": "2026-09-10T12:45:00Z", "marist_pub_dates_le_T60": [ "2020-06-26" ], "pew_pub_dates_le_T60": [ "2020-08-13" ], "gallup_pub_dates_le_T60": [ "2020-08-14", "2020-08-17", "2020-08-24" ] } }, { "cycle": 2024, "election_day": "2024-11-05", "cutoff_T60_America_New_York_end_of_day": "2024-09-06", "cutoff_T30_sensitivity_only": "2024-10-06", "outcome_House_Clerk": "VERIFIED \u2014 Clerk Election Statistics PDF HTTP200 application/pdf size_bytes=608100 via https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/2024election/ \u2192 https://historycms.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/2024election/; national two-party totals extraction+hash OPEN; labels not PIT features", "outcome_FEC": "VERIFIED \u2014 Official 2024 Presidential General Election Results PDF HTTP200 application/pdf (fec.gov/resources/.../2024presgeresults.pdf); totals hash OPEN; labels not PIT features", "outcome_MIT_Election_Lab": "OPEN \u2014 not in 1976\u20132020 statewide file; county 2000\u20132024 + precinct-2024 sets exist on MIT landing; statewide 2024 cross-check not yet pinned", "polls_public_by_cutoff": "OPEN\u2020 \u2014 Marist 2024-06-18 & 2024-08-06 \u2264 T\u221260; 2024-09-10 > T\u221260; Quinnipiac 2024-08-29 HTML+FOR RELEASE PDF \u2264 T\u221260; Pew Sep-9 topline PDF > T\u221260; PollingReport 2024.htm HTTP200; FTE CSV BLOCKED; full national LV inventory NOT frozen", "economic_ALFRED_vintages_by_cutoff": "OPEN \u2014 ALFRED is correct vintage tool; per-series coverage matrix not yet audited", "ANES_availability_by_cutoff": "BLOCKED \u2014 ANES 2024 Time Series Full Release dated August 8, 2025 (post-election); same-election microdata excluded from T\u221260 PIT", "Voteview_vintage_by_cutoff": "OPEN \u2014 need historical vintage or frozen then-available refit; landing reachable", "SRP_adjacent_candidate_availability": "OPEN \u2014 M4 feature named in v0.1.1 as trust_fed_gov_precutoff_level; per-cycle pre-cutoff availability not yet proven", "eligible_strict_PIT": "UNDECIDED", "exclusion_reason": null, "evidence_notes": { "house_clerk_pdf_verified_utc": "2026-09-10T03:29:29Z", "house_clerk_bytes": 608100, "no_fitting": true, "no_outcome_join": true, "polls_pass_utc": "2026-09-10T04:11:59Z", "fte_csv_reject": true, "marist_pub_dates_le_T60": [ "2024-06-18", "2024-08-06" ], "marist_pub_dates_gt_T60": [ "2024-09-10" ], "pollingreport_page": "https://www.pollingreport.com/2024.htm", "polls_pass2_utc": "2026-09-10T12:45:00Z", "quinnipiac_pub_dates_le_T60": [ "2024-08-29" ], "pew_pub_dates_gt_T60": [ "2024-09-09" ], "release_date_proof": "PARTIAL_EXAMPLES" } } ], "progress_summary": { "cycles_total": 15, "cycles_advanced_this_pass": 15, "pass2_focus_cycles_with_publisher_release_examples": [ 2016, 2020, 2024 ], "dimensions_advanced": [ "polls: Marist release-date proof extended to 2016 + 2020 (HTML/PDF) in addition to 2024", "polls: Quinnipiac 2024-08-29 FOR RELEASE PDF+HTML \u2264 T\u221260 VERIFIED_PARTIAL", "polls: Pew 2020-08-13 datePublished \u2264 T\u221260; 2024-09-09 topline still > T\u221260", "polls: Gallup 2020 datePublished articles \u2264 T\u221260 (election-adjacent proof class)", "polls: PollingReport early-cycle paths 1992/1996 HTTP404 documented", "polls: FTE HTML-as-CSV REJECT reconfirmed pass2", "eligible_strict_PIT remains UNDECIDED for all cycles (honest)" ], "still_open": [ "Complete national LV release\u2264T\u221260 inventory per cycle", "Roper membership extraction / redistribution terms confirmation", "Publisher release examples for cycles \u22642012 (none frozen this pass)", "Per-cycle extracted FEC/House Clerk two-party totals + hashes", "MIT dataset exact version hashes", "ALFRED series list + vintage coverage matrix", "ANES contemporaneous availability for cycles other than 2024 BLOCK", "Voteview historical vintage selection", "Eligible cycle freeze after PIT audit (requires Claude ACCEPT on protocol)" ], "gates_preserved": { "MODEL_CHANGE": false, "FITTING": false, "OUTCOME_TESTING": "NOT_YET_AUTHORIZED", "eligible_strict_PIT": "UNDECIDED for all cycles", "S1_E2_exploratory": "PARKED_by_James_order" } }, "verified_vs_open_summary": { "verified": [ "House Clerk outcome PDF archives for all 15 cycles 1968\u20132024", "FEC Federal Elections links 1984\u20132020 + 2024 official presidential PDF", "MIT statewide presidential catalog coverage 1976\u20132020 (pointer)", "MIT 1968\u20131972 out-of-range BLOCK for MIT secondary", "ANES 2024 post-election Full Release date (BLOCK same-election)", "538 retrospective-average caveat + GitHub averages CSV real-but-not-PIT", "HTML-as-CSV / non-CSV FTE reject incident RECONFIRMED (abcnews HTML)", "ALFRED vintage tool pointer", "Voteview vintage requirement pointer", "Marist publisher pages with publication dates (2024 \u2264T\u221260 examples)", "Gallup publisher datePublished metadata + historical trial-heat trends landing", "PollingReport field-date cycle archives HTTP200 for 2000/2004/2008/2012/2016/2020/2024", "Pew dated topline PDF class (2024-09-09 example)", "License notes: US gov works; MIT public domain; ANES/Roper/Marist/Gallup/PollingReport/Pew restricted or terms-bound", "Marist publisher release dates for 2016-08-05 (\u2264T\u221260) + 2016-09-23 (>T\u221260) + 2020-06-26 (\u2264T\u221260) in addition to 2024 examples", "Quinnipiac 2024-08-29 national FOR RELEASE PDF+HTML \u2264 T\u221260", "Pew 2020-08-13 datePublished \u2264 T\u221260", "Gallup 2020-08-14/17/24 datePublished \u2264 T\u221260 (election-adjacent)", "PollingReport 1992/1996 HTTP404 (no early-cycle pages)", "USC Annenberg original ASPX Wayback 2012-08-24 \u2264T-60 LV horse-race (pass4 retry)", "Quinnipiac 2016-08-25 national LV \u2264T-60", "Quinnipiac 2012-07-11 national RV \u2264T-60", "Gallup Daily 2008 RV \u00d76 \u2264T-60" ], "open": [ "Per-cycle extracted official totals + two-party denominator hashes", "MIT dataset exact version hashes / 2024 statewide pin", "Release-dated national LV poll archive COMPLETE inventory by cycle at T\u221260 (examples for 2016/2020/2024 only)", "Roper iPoll per-cycle extraction under membership", "ALFRED series list + vintage coverage matrix", "ANES contemporaneous availability (non-2024)", "Voteview historical vintage selection", "Eligible cycle freeze after PIT audit", "Publisher release-date examples for cycles \u22642004 still sparse; 2008/2012 partial only", "GQRR USC/LAT Full Crosstabs PDF bytes via Wayback still OPEN" ], "blocked": [ "MIT secondary for 1968 and 1972 (outside documented statewide range)", "ANES same-election 2024 microdata for T\u221260 features", "FiveThirtyEight president_polls_historical.csv as CSV ingest (HTML/abcnews)", "HuffPost Pollster API v2 (HTTP404 / unmaintained)" ] }, "s1_e2_exploratory": "PARKED \u2014 James order: no new S1/E2 sensors/composites/re-slices; posted ANES/N3 frozen", "pass": "pass4_retry_usc_aspx_vintage", "eligible_strict_PIT": "UNDECIDED", "fitting": false, "pass4": { "at": "2026-09-10T16:15:00Z", "usc_wayback_post_migration_url": "NO_PRE_UPDATE_SNAP", "usc_aspx_original_url_wayback": "RECOVERED_le_T60_LV", "usc_aspx_sha256": "13c5920a7e51d02587ba170e5393bc54e9bd877fff499a5d32028fe43f4d9e24", "new_lv_rows": [ "QU_2016-08-25_national_LV", "USC_Annenberg_LAT_2012-08-23_ASPX_WB" ], "new_rv_rows_le_T60": [ "QU_2012-07-11_national_RV", "Gallup_2008-08-01", "Gallup_2008-08-06", "Gallup_2008-08-11", "Gallup_2008-08-14", "Gallup_2008-08-22", "Gallup_2008-08-29" ], "corrections": [ "Gallup_110548_trialheat_gt_T60" ], "gqrr_pdf_wayback": "HTTP404_this_pass" } }