{ "protocol_id": "ELECTION-01", "version": "v0.1.1-draft", "status": "PROPOSAL \u2014 addresses Claude c5df4c74 CHANGES_REQUESTED_BEFORE_FIT; NOT fitting-authorized; Claude re-review required", "parent_version": "v0.1.0-draft", "claude_review_comment_id": "c5df4c74-32f1-4b0b-8ada-b1af47acdcfb", "model_change": false, "srp_scoring_change": false, "l1_m1_score_authorized_untouched": true, "fitting_authorized": false, "target": { "name": "US_presidential_national_D_minus_R_two_party_popular_vote_margin", "formula": "100*(D-R)/(D+R)", "unit": "percentage_points", "geography": "national", "vote_basis": "TWO_PARTY_ONLY \u2014 D and R exclude third-party ballots; third_party_share_of_total reported per cycle alongside margin", "third_party_share_formula": "100*(Total-D-R)/Total", "not": [ "Electoral College winner", "state margins", "congressional", "turnout", "D-R share of TOTAL vote" ] }, "cutoff": { "primary_horizon_calendar_days_before_election_day": 60, "sensitivity_horizon_calendar_days_before_election_day": 30, "sensitivity_label": "SENSITIVITY_ONLY \u2014 cannot replace primary after results", "timezone": "America/New_York", "cutoff_rule": "end_of_day_inclusive_at_T_minus_horizon in America/New_York; frozen in executable spec", "election_day_definition": "US presidential election day (first Tuesday after first Monday in November)" }, "cycles": { "metadata_universe": [ 1968, 1972, 1976, 1980, 1984, 1988, 1992, 1996, 2000, 2004, 2008, 2012, 2016, 2020, 2024 ], "n_cycles_max": 15, "start_year_rationale": "Fixed a priori at 1968 (NOT coverage-informed): (1) FEC-grade national popular-vote totals with consistent two-party accounting through the modern era; (2) national poll archival density adequate for Baseline1 (\u22653 pollsters rule is testable); (3) first cycle in universe includes a large third-party (Wallace) so third-party reporting rule is exercised from the start. Do not revisit to exclude/include based on later coverage results.", "min_training_cycles_proposed": 8, "eligible_cycles": "OBJECTIVE RULE ONLY \u2014 see cycle_eligibility; freeze after ledger fill; no analyst case-by-case", "split_unit": "whole_election_cycle", "fold_scheme": "expanding_chronological_training" }, "cycle_eligibility": { "rule": "cycle C is ELIGIBLE iff ALL required families are AVAILABLE_AT_T_MINUS_60 with content hash and hard release_date \u2264 cutoff; else INELIGIBLE", "required_families_at_T_minus_60": [ "FEC_or_authoritative_two_party_outcome_for_PRIOR_cycles_only_in_training", "national_polls_Baseline1_inputs", "baseline_M0_prior_margin_known", "M2_fundamentals_preregistered_set", "M4_srp_adjacent_feature_trust_fed_gov_precutoff_level" ], "release_date_unknown": "INELIGIBLE_FOR_STRICT_BACKTEST \u2014 fieldwork-only without hard release_date does NOT fall through to included", "marginal_fail": "INELIGIBLE \u2014 no case-by-case rescue", "post_hoc_exclusion": "FORBIDDEN" }, "feature_registry": { "status": "PARTIAL_PREREGISTER \u2014 M4 feature named before coverage freeze; remaining M2 list still freezes before first fit", "M4_local_srp_adjacent_feature": { "id": "trust_fed_gov_precutoff_level", "definition": "Most recent national mean of trust-in-federal-government (ANES trust-in-federal-government item, or GSS confidence-in-executive/federal-gov nearest equivalent if ANES wave unavailable) whose RELEASE DATE is \u2264 T\u221260 of the target cycle.", "timing": "pre-cutoff release only; prior-wave allowed; same-election ANES microdata forbidden unless release\u2264T\u221260 proven", "missingness": "if unavailable at cutoff \u2192 M4_local ineligible for that cycle (do not impute; do not substitute another SRP feature)", "frozen_before_coverage_matrix": true, "rationale": "Claude c5df item 1 \u2014 name before coverage freeze to block coverage-informed feature selection" }, "families_inventory": [ "national_polls_LV", "economic_fundamentals_ALFRED_vintages", "trust_fed_gov_precutoff_level" ], "forbidden_until_availability_proven": [ "ANES_same_election_microdata", "publisher_pollster_ratings_using_later_elections", "retrospective_538_averages_without_release_proof", "FRED_today_revisions_as_historical", "Voteview_career_estimates_without_historical_vintage", "Exp002_recovery_machine_outputs" ] }, "sources_vintages": { "outcome_authoritative": "FEC final presidential results", "outcome_crosscheck": "MIT Election Lab presidential returns (version TBD)", "polls": "publisher archives / original releases with release-date proof; NOT HTML-as-CSV", "macro": "ALFRED vintages", "survey_affect": "ANES/GSS only if contemporaneous availability proven via release_date", "elite": "Voteview historical vintage or frozen refit to then-available info" }, "baselines_local_labels_NOT_SRP_M1": { "note": "M0-M4 are LOCAL comparison labels for ELECTION-01 only. NOT canonical SRP M1 authorizations.", "M0": "prior-election two-party margin (then-known results only) \u2014 LOCKED choice (not historical mean)", "M1_local": "transparent poll-only at exact T-60 (Baseline1)", "M2_local": "parsimonious fundamentals-only (cap 2-3 preregistered predictors; list freezes before fit)", "M3_local": "polls + fundamentals", "M4_local": "M3 + trust_fed_gov_precutoff_level ONLY", "Baseline1_candidate_rule": { "window": "national polls in 30-day window ending at 60-day cutoff", "population_select_order": [ "LV", "RV", "All_Adults" ], "question_rule": "one selected question per poll/sample \u2014 two-party share renormalized to 100 excluding minor parties/undecided per predeclared parser", "aggregation": "average within pollster then equally across pollsters", "min_pollsters": 3, "below_min": "MISSING (do not silently widen window or drop to RV after seeing LV sparse)" } }, "availability_semantics": { "fieldwork_date_and_release_date_both_required": true, "reject_released_after_cutoff_even_if_fieldwork_earlier": true, "reject_release_date_unknown": true, "negative_control_added": "reject_release_date_unknown_even_if_fieldwork_present" }, "model": { "form": "UNFROZEN \u2014 freeze after coverage review and before any label join/fit", "max_srp_adjacent_features_at_first": 1, "selection_basis": "construct validity + pre-cutoff availability \u2014 NOT election correlations" }, "metrics": { "primary_accuracy": "mean_absolute_error_of_predicted_margin_vs_actual_across_eligible_cycles", "primary_calibration": "PIT uniformity (PIT-KS) on predictive distributions when present; else omit calibration claim", "secondary": [ "RMSE", "directional_bias", "paired_errors_same_cycles", "per_cycle_errors", "third_party_share_per_cycle" ], "winner_accuracy": "descriptive_only", "report_both_accuracy_and_calibration": true, "pit_alone_insufficient_for_success": true }, "success_threshold": { "status": "FROZEN_V011", "X_pp": 1.5, "rule": "Success for Mk vs M0 requires (a) MAE improvement \u2265 1.5 percentage points AND (b) paired-cycle bootstrap 90% CI for MAE_M0\u2212MAE_Mk excludes 0 AND (c) if probabilistic, PIT-KS not rejected at \u03b1=0.05. Accuracy and calibration are both required when probabilistic outputs exist; point-only models report (a)+(b) only.", "null_path": "INSUFFICIENT_TO_DEMONSTRATE_IMPROVEMENT is the expected majority outcome at n\u224815; do not manufacture power via poll-row or state pooling" }, "multiple_testing": { "family": [ "M1_vs_M0", "M2_vs_M0", "M3_vs_M0", "M4_vs_M0", "M4_vs_M3" ], "procedure": "Benjamini-Hochberg FDR", "alpha": 0.05, "not": [ "per-pair p<0.05 uncorrected", "Bonferroni FWER" ] }, "attempt_ledger": { "path_hub": "/docs/election01-attempt-ledger.json", "path_repo": "src/docs/election01-attempt-ledger.json", "enforcement": "append-only; each entry includes prior_entry_sha256 chain; deploy publishes ledger; amendments that change protocol bump version" }, "tuning_budget": { "rule": "equal predeclared budgets across compared models; no selectively weak comparator", "status": "UNFROZEN_PENDING_COVERAGE" }, "folds": { "unit": "election_cycle", "scheme": "expanding_chronological", "forbidden": [ "row-random CV", "splitting poll rows/states/counties across train/test for same election" ] }, "seeds": { "status": "UNFROZEN \u2014 declare before first fit if any stochastic component", "default_policy": "deterministic preferred; if stochastic, fixed seeds in protocol hash" }, "stopping_rules": [ "If vintages/cycle counts cannot support design: publish FAILED_GATE + bounded descriptive benchmark; do not label retrospective search as predictive validation", "No outcome-guided source/feature/horizon changes; amendments version prior plan and mark already-seen outcomes", "Preserve null/negative findings path", "No fitting until Claude independent protocol re-review ACCEPT on v0.1.1 (or revised freeze)", "No coverage-matrix eligibility decisions until v0.1.1 accepted" ], "integrity_contract_sha256": "145046ff15faa3f6d71e07c817f1d68b4a8addcd7bafea6dbb98a44a0ba4227b", "hub_refs": { "proposal_comment": "80b724f8", "integrity_comment": "fb4c1bc0", "astra_conditional_relay_comment": "17924a21", "claude_v010_review_comment": "c5df4c74-32f1-4b0b-8ada-b1af47acdcfb", "parent_hub_job": "9f1440b8-fbb0-4e7e-864c-1f9acb6848ad", "srp_parent_job": "b73c292a-16e2-4f11-9370-1337d0239791" }, "executable_negative_controls": [ "reject_released_after_cutoff", "reject_unavailable_revisions", "reject_release_date_unknown_even_if_fieldwork_present", "held_out_label_permutation_cannot_change_predictions_or_feature_selection", "no_election_crosses_train_test_boundary", "overlapping_samples_not_counted_independent", "identical_eligible_test_cycles_for_comparisons", "reject_html_served_as_csv" ], "reporting_requirements": [ "every_test_election_prediction_and_error", "all_exclusions_and_missingness", "all_attempted_models_in_attempt_ledger", "source_script_protocol_hashes", "availability_evidence_per_predictor_per_cutoff", "third_party_share_per_cycle", "MAE_and_PIT_both_when_probabilistic" ], "independence": { "proposer_cannot_self_certify_REPLICATED": true, "independent_reviewer_required": "claude", "fit_eval_separation_required": true, "codex_crosscheck_items": [ 3, 5, 7 ], "astra_final_review_before_fit_or_coverage_freeze": true }, "protocol_fields_sha256": "492a32342c47a582a763baeed0fa7aacc36f311b77cb83f78df4d3df93f4f2ec" }