{ "title": "H01_E_EXPLORATORY_FREEZE_v0_1", "artifact": "H01_E_EXPLORATORY_FREEZE_v0_1", "created_at_utc": "2026-09-13T21:50:54Z", "hub_job": "77356229-193e-4693-a90c-cae8dcb0bc4a", "authorization": { "james": "AUTHORIZED H01-E EXPLORATORY RUN (chat)", "parent_packet_status_preserved": "CURRENT_PACKET_FEASIBILITY_INSUFFICIENT", "parent_reopen": false, "parent_overwrite": false, "note": "Exploratory track only. 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"https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/tm70mv177/sn00cr57p/ff366z98p/crop1024.txt", "destination_txt_url": "https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/tm70mv177/bz60fp33t/fj237w71q/crop1124.txt", "vintage_status": "VINTAGE_UNVERIFIED", "parent_eligibility": "EXCLUDED_UNKNOWN_CONTENT_VINTAGE", "exploratory_inclusion": true, "target_values_opened_at_freeze": false }, { "unit_key": "2025|2025-08-12|2025-09-12", "harvest_season_year": 2025, "origin_issue_date_calendar": "2025-08-12", "destination_issue_date_calendar": "2025-09-12", "origin_month": 8, "destination_month": 9, "gap_pair_flag": false, "missing_intervening_months": [], "origin_txt_sha256": "b9e7c8e815ee60b7c71b1a89ed5a84f249252b642485c2534404d92453b0453a", "destination_txt_sha256": "ef745e9fd0c3d690fc26533f595171c703ece99e8731252432b550b7fe7a42f8", "origin_txt_url": "https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/tm70mv177/6m313n48h/w0894b04t/crop0825.txt", "destination_txt_url": "https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/tm70mv177/sx61gm45w/ws85cg70g/crop0925.txt", "vintage_status": "VINTAGE_UNVERIFIED", "parent_eligibility": "EXCLUDED_UNKNOWN_CONTENT_VINTAGE", "exploratory_inclusion": true, "target_values_opened_at_freeze": false }, { "unit_key": "2025|2025-09-12|2025-11-14", "harvest_season_year": 2025, "origin_issue_date_calendar": "2025-09-12", "destination_issue_date_calendar": "2025-11-14", "origin_month": 9, "destination_month": 11, "gap_pair_flag": true, "missing_intervening_months": [ 10 ], "origin_txt_sha256": "ef745e9fd0c3d690fc26533f595171c703ece99e8731252432b550b7fe7a42f8", "destination_txt_sha256": "f639d9a47b1baac780fced6a94d8ad3338078d67f554d4f1480cbfd40272c29e", "origin_txt_url": "https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/tm70mv177/sx61gm45w/ws85cg70g/crop0925.txt", "destination_txt_url": "https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/795644/crop1125.txt", "vintage_status": "VINTAGE_UNVERIFIED", "parent_eligibility": "EXCLUDED_UNKNOWN_CONTENT_VINTAGE", "exploratory_inclusion": true, "target_values_opened_at_freeze": false } ], "exclusions_already_applied": [ "SPECIAL_REPORT / NOTICE_RESCHEDULE non-ordinary", "Editions without literal corn grain yield table header", "Pre-2010 / non-scaffold seasons", "January annual slot", "WASDE / acreage / production primary paths" ], "drop_at_run_if": "Indicated-yield line absent in opened first-published package \u2192 drop unit (no impute)" }, "2_GE_predictor": { "name": "US_corn_Good_plus_Excellent_pct", "definition": "U.S. corn Crop Progress condition Good% + Excellent% (percent of acreage), national aggregate as published in Crop Progress package condition table", "source_card": "AG_NASS_CROP_PROGRESS", "transform": "GEX_surprise = observed_GEX - seasonal_norm_GEX for same crop and survey-week-of-year position", "aggregation_to_unit": "Mean of admitted prior-calendar-day Jul\u2013Sep Progress GEX_surprise values with package availability \u2264 destination T0 under Astra CALENDAR_DATE_ONLY (PASS_PRIOR_CALENDAR_DAY only; same-day EXCLUDED; later EXCLUDED)", "single_feature_name": "ge_surprise_mean_jul_sep_admitted", "phenology_progress": "PARKED \u2014 not in primary feature" }, "3_predictor_window": { "calendar_months": [ "Jul", "Aug", "Sep" ], "months_numeric": [ 7, 8, 9 ], "admission": "Only Progress packages with timing_vs_origin=PASS_PRIOR_CALENDAR_DAY relative to destination CP noon ET T0", "presence_inventory": "RCL_H01_A_CROP_PROGRESS_GE_PRESENCE_JUL_SEP_v0_1 (211 PRESENT / 1 MISSING DELAY_NOTICE 2018-09-10; companion 2018-09-11 PRESENT)" }, "4_normalization": { "rule": "past_training_only", "detail": "Seasonal norms for GEX by survey-week-of-year computed ONLY from development-split seasons (harvest_season_year \u2264 2019). Holdout seasons never enter norms. No final-revised norms. No destination peek." }, "5_target": { "name": "corn_indicated_yield_revision", "formula": "indicated_yield_bu_per_acre(destination_first_published) - indicated_yield_bu_per_acre(origin_first_published)", "units": "bushels_per_acre", "pairing": "Adjacent ordinary corn-header Aug\u2013Nov CP editions per revision-horizon v0.1 (consecutive in ordered list; gap pairs flagged)", "anchors": "First-published ESMIS dated package txt bytes per inventory txt_sha256/txt_url (not Quick Stats final)", "exact_slot_horizon": "RCL_H01_A_EXACT_REQUIRED_SLOT_REVIEW_v0_1 + revision-horizon v0.1", "values_at_freeze": "CLOSED \u2014 not read" }, "6_baseline": { "model_A_name": "ordinary_combined_no_weather", "components": [ { "id": "persistence", "spec": "Predict revision = 0 (no-change / last indicated yield persistence)", "implementation": "As OLS/linear feature: const term absorbs; explicit feature persistence_zero_revision = 0 is omitted; intercept-only path via other features + intercept" }, { "id": "seasonality", "spec": "Calendar-position revision norm from past/training seasons only", "features": [ "origin_month (categorical / one-hot for {8,9,10})", "destination_month (categorical / one-hot for {9,10,11})", "slot_label among {AugSep, SepOct, OctNov, SepNov_gap}" ] }, { "id": "prior_revision_dynamics", "spec": "Prior adjacent revision within same season available at T0 (origin\u2190previous), else 0 with missing flag", "features": [ "prior_revision_same_season (bu/acre; 0 if first unit of season)", "prior_revision_missing_flag (1 if first unit of season)" ] }, { "id": "weather", "spec": "UNAVAILABLE", "note": "No corn-belt public weather anomaly panel already in workspace for T0-safe use. Per instructions: freeze baseline WITHOUT weather; do not delay. Status=UNAVAILABLE." } ], "estimator": "OLS linear regression (sklearn LinearRegression / numpy lstsq) fit on development units only; apply to holdout", "not_intentionally_weak": true }, "7_chronological_split": { "rule": "by harvest_season_year chronological", "development_seasons": [ 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019 ], "holdout_seasons": [ 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 ], "development_unit_keys": [ "2010|2010-08-12|2010-09-10", "2010|2010-09-10|2010-10-08", "2010|2010-10-08|2010-11-09", "2011|2011-08-11|2011-09-12", "2011|2011-09-12|2011-10-12", "2011|2011-10-12|2011-11-09", "2012|2012-08-10|2012-09-12", "2012|2012-09-12|2012-10-11", "2012|2012-10-11|2012-11-09", "2013|2013-08-12|2013-09-12", "2013|2013-09-12|2013-11-08", "2014|2014-08-12|2014-09-11", "2014|2014-09-11|2014-10-10", "2014|2014-10-10|2014-11-10", "2015|2015-08-12|2015-09-11", "2015|2015-09-11|2015-10-09", "2015|2015-10-09|2015-11-10", "2016|2016-08-12|2016-09-12", "2016|2016-09-12|2016-10-12", "2016|2016-10-12|2016-11-09", "2017|2017-08-10|2017-09-12", "2017|2017-09-12|2017-10-12", "2017|2017-10-12|2017-11-09", "2018|2018-08-10|2018-09-12", "2018|2018-09-12|2018-10-11", "2018|2018-10-11|2018-11-08", "2019|2019-08-12|2019-09-12", "2019|2019-09-12|2019-10-10", "2019|2019-10-10|2019-11-08" ], "holdout_unit_keys": [ "2020|2020-08-12|2020-09-11", "2020|2020-09-11|2020-10-09", "2020|2020-10-09|2020-11-10", "2021|2021-08-12|2021-09-10", "2021|2021-09-10|2021-10-12", "2021|2021-10-12|2021-11-09", "2022|2022-08-12|2022-09-12", "2022|2022-09-12|2022-10-12", "2022|2022-10-12|2022-11-09", "2023|2023-08-11|2023-09-12", "2023|2023-09-12|2023-10-12", "2023|2023-10-12|2023-11-09", "2024|2024-08-12|2024-09-12", "2024|2024-09-12|2024-10-11", "2024|2024-10-11|2024-11-08", "2025|2025-08-12|2025-09-12", "2025|2025-09-12|2025-11-14" ], "n_development_units_planned": 29, "n_holdout_units_planned": 17, "note": "Actual N may drop if yield line absent when packages opened; report exclusions." }, "8_evaluation_metric": { "primary": "RMSE", "definition": "sqrt(mean((y_hat - y)^2)) on holdout units", "secondary_reported": [ "MAE (report only; not decision metric)", "directional_accuracy = mean(sign(y_hat)==sign(y)) treating sign(0)=0; zeros counted incorrect unless both zero" ] }, "9_success_threshold": { "rule": "relative_holdout_RMSE_improvement_pct >= 5.0", "formula": "100 * (RMSE_A - RMSE_B) / RMSE_A", "explicit_number_pct": 5.0, "disposition_mapping": { "KILL": "relative improvement < 1.0% OR negative OR non-finite / N too small (<8 holdout units after drops)", "HOLD": "1.0% <= relative improvement < 5.0%", "EXPLORATORY_PROMOTE": "relative improvement >= 5.0% (clears threshold) \u2014 exploratory promote for stronger validation/prospective ONLY; NOT validated edge; NOT capital" } }, "10_trial_budget": { "n_primary_specifications": 1, "model_A": "frozen baseline (ordinary_combined_no_weather)", "model_B": "IDENTICAL baseline + ONE frozen feature ge_surprise_mean_jul_sep_admitted", "forbidden": [ "alternate specs", "intentionally weak baseline", "rescue after result", "feature engineering after loss", "weather acquisition delay" ] }, "coefficient_sign_reporting": { "frozen": true, "report": "OLS coefficient on ge_surprise_mean_jul_sep_admitted in Model B (development fit); expected sign positive per candidate \u00a77" } }, "rules_hard": [ "FREEZE posted BEFORE any indicated-yield / target revision values are read", "Parent H01 remains CURRENT_PACKET_FEASIBILITY_INSUFFICIENT \u2014 do not reopen/overwrite", "Never POST /james", "MODEL_CHANGE=NO", "REAL_CAPITAL PROHIBITED", "NO rescue after result", "Preserve parent closure + all artifacts + code + inputs + result", "Post result on Hub; ask Codex for post-run arithmetic/implementation verify only" ] }