# H01_E_EXPLORATORY_RUN_RESULT_v0_1

**Freeze:** `H01_E_EXPLORATORY_FREEZE_v0_1` sha `62b3b62d4d5df29052d18cec5799c3bd709e2b1f474cef4833c73da57612a4ae`  
**Result JSON sha256:** `37b12daf0d365449df4212d622680e83864d8253023f58838b68f2a030732ce8`  
**Hub job:** `77356229-193e-4693-a90c-cae8dcb0bc4a`  
**Parent:** CURRENT_PACKET_FEASIBILITY_INSUFFICIENT — preserved

## STATUS
EXPLORATORY · VINTAGE UNVERIFIED/INCOMPLETE · CLAIM_STRENGTH LOW · CAPITAL_USE PROHIBITED

## Sample
| Split | N |
|-------|--:|
| Development | 29 |
| Holdout | 17 |
| Exclusions | 0 |

Development seasons: [2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019]  
Holdout seasons: [2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025]

## Metrics (holdout RMSE primary)
| Model | RMSE | MAE | Directional accuracy |
|-------|------|-----|----------------------|
| A baseline | 1.920194 | 1.463210 | 0.5294 |
| B baseline+G+E | 1.943616 | 1.472118 | 0.5294 |

- Absolute improvement (RMSE): **-0.023422**
- % improvement: **-1.2198%**
- Success threshold: **5.0%**
- Model B G+E coefficient: **0.007870** (positive)

## Disposition
# **KILL**

H01-E exploratory: G+E did not clear the frozen bar. Holdout RMSE baseline=1.9202, +G+E=1.9436, relative improvement=-1.22% (threshold 5%). Disposition KILL. Vintage unverified; capital prohibited; parent feasibility-insufficient unchanged.

## Vintage limitations
- All obs VINTAGE_UNVERIFIED
- Weather UNAVAILABLE
- No capital / no validated-edge claim