{
  "title": "H01_E_EXPLORATORY_RUN_RESULT_v0_1",
  "artifact": "H01_E_EXPLORATORY_RUN_RESULT_v0_1",
  "freeze_sha256": "62b3b62d4d5df29052d18cec5799c3bd709e2b1f474cef4833c73da57612a4ae",
  "hub_job": "77356229-193e-4693-a90c-cae8dcb0bc4a",
  "status_fields": {
    "STATUS": "EXPLORATORY",
    "VINTAGE_STATUS": "UNVERIFIED/INCOMPLETE",
    "CLAIM_STRENGTH": "LOW",
    "CAPITAL_USE": "PROHIBITED",
    "MODEL_CHANGE": "NO",
    "REAL_CAPITAL": "PROHIBITED",
    "PARENT_PACKET": "CURRENT_PACKET_FEASIBILITY_INSUFFICIENT_PRESERVED"
  },
  "sample": {
    "development_N": 29,
    "holdout_N": 17,
    "excluded_N": 0,
    "exclusions": [],
    "development_seasons": [
      2010,
      2011,
      2012,
      2013,
      2014,
      2015,
      2016,
      2017,
      2018,
      2019
    ],
    "holdout_seasons": [
      2020,
      2021,
      2022,
      2023,
      2024,
      2025
    ],
    "vintage_limitations": [
      "All observations VINTAGE_UNVERIFIED \u2014 content-vintage gate 0 PASS in parent ledger v0.2",
      "ESMIS packages used as best reconstructed first-published anchors; not independently archive-validated contemporaneous prints",
      "Weather UNAVAILABLE (frozen without it)",
      "Parent H01 remains CURRENT_PACKET_FEASIBILITY_INSUFFICIENT"
    ]
  },
  "metrics": {
    "primary_metric": "RMSE",
    "baseline_RMSE": 1.920193705434554,
    "baseline_plus_GE_RMSE": 1.9436158056420798,
    "absolute_improvement_RMSE": -0.023422100207525887,
    "pct_improvement_RMSE": -1.2197779912118447,
    "baseline_MAE": 1.4632101404004927,
    "baseline_plus_GE_MAE": 1.4721182982917669,
    "baseline_directional_accuracy": 0.5294117647058824,
    "baseline_plus_GE_directional_accuracy": 0.5294117647058824
  },
  "model_B_ge_coefficient": 0.007869879445229044,
  "model_B_ge_coefficient_sign": "positive",
  "model_A_coefficients": {
    "intercept": 1.506585514483587,
    "om_8": -0.4466463786208963,
    "om_9": 3.2855763559506697,
    "dm_9": -0.44664637862089807,
    "dm_10": -2.5479944488348307,
    "slot_AugSep": -0.44664637862089723,
    "slot_SepOct": -2.5479944488348263,
    "slot_OctNov": -1.332344462846183,
    "prior_revision": 0.342042366184151,
    "prior_revision_missing": -0.44664637862089757
  },
  "model_B_coefficients": {
    "intercept": 1.5110924814319235,
    "om_8": -0.44812878525063665,
    "om_9": 3.300554476397756,
    "dm_9": -0.44812878525063554,
    "dm_10": -2.5598903072440726,
    "slot_AugSep": -0.4481287852506393,
    "slot_SepOct": -2.559890307244073,
    "slot_OctNov": -1.3413332097151973,
    "prior_revision": 0.33678785125569444,
    "prior_revision_missing": -0.44812878525063754,
    "ge_surprise_mean_jul_sep_admitted": 0.007869879445229044
  },
  "success_threshold_pct": 5.0,
  "disposition": "KILL",
  "plain_english_verdict": "H01-E exploratory: G+E did not clear the frozen bar. Holdout RMSE baseline=1.9202, +G+E=1.9436, relative improvement=-1.22% (threshold 5%). Disposition KILL. Vintage unverified; capital prohibited; parent feasibility-insufficient unchanged.",
  "holdout_predictions": [
    {
      "unit_key": "2020|2020-08-12|2020-09-11",
      "y": -3.3000000000000114,
      "yhat_A": -0.2800000000000022,
      "yhat_B": -0.23805962382741352,
      "ge_surprise_mean": 5.51
    },
    {
      "unit_key": "2020|2020-09-11|2020-10-09",
      "y": -0.09999999999999432,
      "yhat_A": -1.4325668356431027,
      "yhat_B": -1.386843297337464,
      "ge_surprise_mean": 4.153846153846153
    },
    {
      "unit_key": "2020|2020-10-09|2020-11-10",
      "y": -2.5999999999999943,
      "yhat_A": 0.14003681501899085,
      "yhat_B": 0.16877075505595626,
      "ge_surprise_mean": 4.153846153846153
    },
    {
      "unit_key": "2021|2021-08-12|2021-09-10",
      "y": 1.700000000000017,
      "yhat_A": -0.2800000000000022,
      "yhat_B": -0.2864987318127983,
      "ge_surprise_mean": -0.6450000000000002
    },
    {
      "unit_key": "2021|2021-09-10|2021-10-12",
      "y": 0.19999999999998863,
      "yhat_A": 0.27764499527766207,
      "yhat_B": 0.25850328089229824,
      "ge_surprise_mean": -0.7500000000000006
    },
    {
      "unit_key": "2021|2021-10-12|2021-11-09",
      "y": 0.5,
      "yhat_A": 0.2426495248742303,
      "yhat_B": 0.2312144323839395,
      "ge_surprise_mean": -0.7500000000000006
    },
    {
      "unit_key": "2022|2022-08-12|2022-09-12",
      "y": -2.9000000000000057,
      "yhat_A": -0.2800000000000022,
      "yhat_B": -0.3124693339820542,
      "ge_surprise_mean": -3.9450000000000003
    },
    {
      "unit_key": "2022|2022-09-12|2022-10-12",
      "y": -0.5999999999999943,
      "yhat_A": -1.2957498891694403,
      "yhat_B": -1.32220035266482,
      "ge_surprise_mean": -4.750000000000001
    },
    {
      "unit_key": "2022|2022-10-12|2022-11-09",
      "y": 0.4000000000000057,
      "yhat_A": -0.03098436807308466,
      "yhat_B": -0.06969536640152649,
      "ge_surprise_mean": -4.750000000000001
    },
    {
      "unit_key": "2023|2023-08-11|2023-09-12",
      "y": -1.299999999999983,
      "yhat_A": -0.2800000000000022,
      "yhat_B": -0.339480906568838,
      "ge_surprise_mean": -7.377272727272726
    },
    {
      "unit_key": "2023|2023-09-12|2023-10-12",
      "y": -0.8000000000000114,
      "yhat_A": -0.7484821032747909,
      "yhat_B": -0.8045279276236256,
      "ge_surprise_mean": -7.4423076923076925
    },
    {
      "unit_key": "2023|2023-10-12|2023-11-09",
      "y": 1.9000000000000057,
      "yhat_A": -0.09939284130992071,
      "yhat_B": -0.15824107362059547,
      "ge_surprise_mean": -7.4423076923076925
    },
    {
      "unit_key": "2024|2024-08-12|2024-09-12",
      "y": 0.5,
      "yhat_A": -0.2800000000000022,
      "yhat_B": -0.2514813454994587,
      "ge_surprise_mean": 3.8045454545454542
    },
    {
      "unit_key": "2024|2024-09-12|2024-10-11",
      "y": 0.20000000000001705,
      "yhat_A": -0.13280584414332494,
      "yhat_B": -0.11008714954948817,
      "ge_surprise_mean": 3.7678571428571423
    },
    {
      "unit_key": "2024|2024-10-11|2024-11-08",
      "y": -0.700000000000017,
      "yhat_A": 0.24264952487424002,
      "yhat_B": 0.2667694234490017,
      "ge_surprise_mean": 3.7678571428571423
    },
    {
      "unit_key": "2025|2025-08-12|2025-09-12",
      "y": -2.1000000000000227,
      "yhat_A": -0.2800000000000022,
      "yhat_B": -0.20736709399102027,
      "ge_surprise_mean": 9.41
    },
    {
      "unit_key": "2025|2025-09-12|2025-11-14",
      "y": -0.6999999999999886,
      "yhat_A": 4.0738729014475314,
      "yhat_B": 4.17098375780619,
      "ge_surprise_mean": 8.461538461538462
    }
  ]
}