# H04_E_EXPLORATORY_RUN_RESULT_v0_1

**Freeze:** `H04_E_EXPLORATORY_FREEZE_v0_1` sha `575470bdcb5baf8dc7085c10644f0eef27f1efba55cf6d3df8f374ff03f09dd2`  
**Result JSON sha256:** `a268ee06fe3536d401e117a5ff83ad49f56b2761a5cae4d75688425669a84abb`  
**Hub job:** `77356229-193e-4693-a90c-cae8dcb0bc4a`  
**Created:** 2026-09-13T22:07:10Z

## STATUS
EXPLORATORY · VINTAGE UNVERIFIED/INCOMPLETE · CLAIM_STRENGTH LOW · CAPITAL_USE PROHIBITED · MODEL_CHANGE NO

## Sample
| Split | N |
|-------|--:|
| Development | 59 |
| Holdout | 81 |
| Exclusions | 0 |

Development destination years: 2015–2019  
Holdout destination years: 2020–2026

## Metrics (holdout RMSE primary)
| Model | RMSE | MAE | Directional accuracy |
|-------|------|-----|----------------------|
| A baseline | 16.508261 | 13.095205 | 0.4815 |
| B baseline+WCEST | 10.853470 | 6.802970 | 0.8642 |

- Absolute improvement (RMSE): **5.654791**
- % improvement: **34.2543%**
- Success threshold: **5.0%**
- Model B WCEST coefficient: **0.004142** (expected POSITIVE; match=YES)

## Disposition
# **EXPLORATORY_PROMOTE**

H04-E exploratory: WCESTUS1 weekly crude-stock surprises did clear the frozen 5% holdout RMSE bar. Holdout RMSE baseline=16.5083, +stocks=10.8535, relative improvement=34.25%. Disposition EXPLORATORY_PROMOTE. Vintage unverified; capital prohibited.

## Vintage limitations
- WCESTUS1 from current hist XLS (revised) — not first-print
- STEO forecast dates mix PARSED + SCHEDULE_PROXY
- No capital / no validated-edge claim