{
  "title": "H04_E_EXPLORATORY_RUN_RESULT_v0_1",
  "created_at_utc": "2026-09-13T22:07:10Z",
  "freeze_artifact": "H04_E_EXPLORATORY_FREEZE_v0_1",
  "freeze_json_sha256": "575470bdcb5baf8dc7085c10644f0eef27f1efba55cf6d3df8f374ff03f09dd2",
  "hub_job": "77356229-193e-4693-a90c-cae8dcb0bc4a",
  "status_fields": {
    "STATUS": "EXPLORATORY",
    "VINTAGE_STATUS": "UNVERIFIED/INCOMPLETE",
    "CLAIM_STRENGTH": "LOW",
    "CAPITAL_USE": "PROHIBITED",
    "MODEL_CHANGE": "NO",
    "REAL_CAPITAL": "PROHIBITED"
  },
  "sample": {
    "development_N": 59,
    "holdout_N": 81,
    "exclusions_N": 0,
    "exclusions": [],
    "development_destination_years": [
      2015,
      2016,
      2017,
      2018,
      2019
    ],
    "holdout_destination_years": [
      2020,
      2021,
      2022,
      2023,
      2024,
      2025,
      2026
    ]
  },
  "metrics_holdout": {
    "model_A_baseline": {
      "RMSE": 16.50826055660827,
      "MAE": 13.095204705880874,
      "directional_accuracy": 0.48148148148148145
    },
    "model_B_baseline_plus_wcest": {
      "RMSE": 10.853469714514954,
      "MAE": 6.802969932906549,
      "directional_accuracy": 0.8641975308641975
    },
    "absolute_improvement_RMSE": 5.654790842093316,
    "pct_improvement_RMSE": 34.254310578043906,
    "success_threshold_pct": 5.0,
    "feature_coefficient": 0.004142484710942034,
    "expected_sign": "POSITIVE",
    "feature_sign_matches_expected": true,
    "feature_train_variance": 5406010.840861663,
    "rank_A": 14,
    "rank_B": 15
  },
  "disposition": "EXPLORATORY_PROMOTE",
  "plain_english": "H04-E exploratory: WCESTUS1 weekly crude-stock surprises did clear the frozen 5% holdout RMSE bar. Holdout RMSE baseline=16.5083, +stocks=10.8535, relative improvement=34.25%. Disposition EXPLORATORY_PROMOTE. Vintage unverified; capital prohibited.",
  "coef_A": [
    1.4256336550223212,
    -1.970251190815499,
    -1.4048244720295326,
    6.493148013171165,
    -8.487984199032317,
    3.1189745392007477,
    -7.44196633996232,
    -2.6491129988403435,
    -3.9328577295152,
    1.6796969554124566,
    -15.894684519656439,
    8.92939390877458,
    0.4164506554401238,
    24.75129081700724
  ],
  "coef_B": [
    3.7739392187240326,
    -2.300278805703897,
    -0.4361680667102254,
    4.905631273351411,
    -6.746461631170523,
    0.15642300009139543,
    -8.108134251766433,
    -6.0242715848973285,
    -6.63865709128259,
    -5.307505610411778,
    -16.2065787882644,
    1.706374668596611,
    0.05336706294281993,
    12.304955342623938,
    0.004142484710942034
  ]
}