{
  "title": "H04_E_MECHANICAL_CONFOUND_RESULT_v0_1",
  "created_at_utc": "2026-09-13T23:11:14Z",
  "confound_freeze": "H04_E_MECHANICAL_CONFOUND_FREEZE_v0_1",
  "confound_freeze_json_sha256": "bcd6867f5c4fdac9ad26d3ab1daf5b4de0bb311aac0efff3e255f21a238c274d",
  "parent_run_result_json_sha256": "a268ee06fe3536d401e117a5ff83ad49f56b2761a5cae4d75688425669a84abb",
  "hub_job": "77356229-193e-4693-a90c-cae8dcb0bc4a",
  "status_fields": {
    "STATUS": "EXPLORATORY",
    "VINTAGE_STATUS": "UNVERIFIED/INCOMPLETE",
    "CLAIM_STRENGTH": "LOW",
    "CAPITAL_USE": "PROHIBITED",
    "MODEL_CHANGE": "NO",
    "REAL_CAPITAL": "PROHIBITED"
  },
  "sample": {
    "development_N": 59,
    "holdout_N": 81
  },
  "primary_check_id": "C1_NESTED_MECH_RAW_DELTA",
  "metrics_holdout": {
    "A0": {
      "RMSE": 16.50826055660827,
      "MAE": 13.095204705880874,
      "directional_accuracy": 0.48148148148148145
    },
    "A_mech": {
      "RMSE": 10.607395275653587,
      "MAE": 6.800874403240066,
      "directional_accuracy": 0.8518518518518519,
      "mech_coef": 0.004233471442787741,
      "mech_feature_train_variance": 11905931.08348463
    },
    "B_vs_mech": {
      "RMSE": 10.62385540611526,
      "MAE": 6.990180912582605,
      "directional_accuracy": 0.8148148148148148,
      "surprise_coef_given_mech": -0.0023322188197824126,
      "mech_coef": 0.006496579735260031
    },
    "B_original_diagnostic": {
      "RMSE": 10.853469714514954,
      "MAE": 6.802969932906549,
      "directional_accuracy": 0.8641975308641975,
      "surprise_coef": 0.004142484710942034
    },
    "primary_pct_improvement_B_vs_mech_over_A_mech": -0.1551759883922855,
    "diagnostic_pct_A0_to_A_mech": 35.74492455289338,
    "diagnostic_pct_A0_to_B_original": 34.254310578043906,
    "success_threshold_pct": 5.0
  },
  "disposition": "MECHANICAL",
  "prior_disposition": "EXPLORATORY_PROMOTE",
  "claim_framing_after_confound": "DOWNGRADED_MECHANICAL",
  "plain_english": "H04-E mechanical confound C1: incremental holdout RMSE improvement of surprise over A0+raw_mean_delta = -0.1552% (bar 5%). A_mech RMSE=10.6074, B_vs_mech RMSE=10.6239. Diagnostic: raw delta alone vs A0 improves 35.74%. Disposition MECHANICAL. CLAIM_STRENGTH LOW; capital prohibited; not a validated edge.",
  "augmented_unit_table": "h04e_run/unit_table_confound_c1.json"
}