# H05_E_EXPLORATORY_RUN_RESULT_v0_1

**Freeze:** `H05_E_EXPLORATORY_FREEZE_v0_1` sha `2f3fca7925519cf5a743488a89975b195f25c9df311d9ff5e648ac25c15b4292`  
**Result JSON sha256:** `27e7af66549e57661fc7bad4a7af06f67a2c74a1a804f165c25bbb0bbbd8597d`  
**Hub job:** `77356229-193e-4693-a90c-cae8dcb0bc4a`  
**Created:** 2026-09-13T23:09:06Z

## STATUS
EXPLORATORY · VINTAGE UNVERIFIED/INCOMPLETE · CLAIM_STRENGTH LOW · CAPITAL_USE PROHIBITED · MODEL_CHANGE NO

## Sample
| Split | N |
|-------|--:|
| Development | 59 |
| Holdout | 81 |
| Exclusions | 0 |

Development destination years: 2015–2019  
Holdout destination years: 2020–2026

## Metrics (holdout RMSE primary)
| Model | RMSE | MAE | Directional accuracy |
|-------|------|-----|----------------------|
| A baseline | 110.537017 | 78.860523 | 0.4815 |
| B baseline+NW2 L48 WG | 79.046953 | 65.574681 | 0.6173 |

- Absolute improvement (RMSE): **31.490063**
- % improvement: **28.4883%**
- Success threshold: **5.0%**
- Model B NW2 coefficient: **3.237968** (expected POSITIVE; match=YES)

## Disposition
# **EXPLORATORY_PROMOTE**

H05-E exploratory: NW2 L48 weekly working-gas surprises did clear the frozen 5% holdout RMSE bar. Holdout RMSE baseline=110.5370, +NW2=79.0470, relative improvement=28.49%. Disposition EXPLORATORY_PROMOTE. Vintage unverified; capital prohibited.

## Vintage limitations
- NW2 from current hist XLS (revised) — not first-print
- STEO forecast dates mix PARSED + SCHEDULE_PROXY
- Coverage: L48 physical vs US-total NGWGPUS (AK small)
- No capital / no validated-edge claim