{
  "title": "H05_E_EXPLORATORY_RUN_RESULT_v0_1",
  "created_at_utc": "2026-09-13T23:09:06Z",
  "freeze_artifact": "H05_E_EXPLORATORY_FREEZE_v0_1",
  "freeze_json_sha256": "2f3fca7925519cf5a743488a89975b195f25c9df311d9ff5e648ac25c15b4292",
  "hub_job": "77356229-193e-4693-a90c-cae8dcb0bc4a",
  "status_fields": {
    "STATUS": "EXPLORATORY",
    "VINTAGE_STATUS": "UNVERIFIED/INCOMPLETE",
    "CLAIM_STRENGTH": "LOW",
    "CAPITAL_USE": "PROHIBITED",
    "MODEL_CHANGE": "NO",
    "REAL_CAPITAL": "PROHIBITED"
  },
  "sample": {
    "development_N": 59,
    "holdout_N": 81,
    "exclusions_N": 0,
    "exclusions": [],
    "development_destination_years": [
      2015,
      2016,
      2017,
      2018,
      2019
    ],
    "holdout_destination_years": [
      2020,
      2021,
      2022,
      2023,
      2024,
      2025,
      2026
    ]
  },
  "metrics_holdout": {
    "model_A_baseline": {
      "RMSE": 110.53701684856048,
      "MAE": 78.86052252723482,
      "directional_accuracy": 0.48148148148148145
    },
    "model_B_baseline_plus_nw2_l48_wg": {
      "RMSE": 79.04695340204732,
      "MAE": 65.57468093584143,
      "directional_accuracy": 0.6172839506172839
    },
    "absolute_improvement_RMSE": 31.49006344651316,
    "pct_improvement_RMSE": 28.48825157789054,
    "success_threshold_pct": 5.0,
    "feature_coefficient": 3.23796821790824,
    "expected_sign": "POSITIVE",
    "feature_sign_matches_expected": true,
    "feature_train_variance": 546.8078879811835,
    "rank_A": 14,
    "rank_B": 15
  },
  "disposition": "EXPLORATORY_PROMOTE",
  "plain_english": "H05-E exploratory: NW2 L48 weekly working-gas surprises did clear the frozen 5% holdout RMSE bar. Holdout RMSE baseline=110.5370, +NW2=79.0470, relative improvement=28.49%. Disposition EXPLORATORY_PROMOTE. Vintage unverified; capital prohibited.",
  "coef_A": [
    -16.948436546314607,
    35.54221885868084,
    13.908688114314197,
    48.54358632153401,
    -3.4190491871294886,
    32.529009537535956,
    22.783531353877574,
    -16.785127449226923,
    -35.09941880467219,
    8.076057740665416,
    34.95395995643886,
    -21.95329969108047,
    0.09830328558318678,
    2.7527484320005025
  ],
  "coef_B": [
    -27.4271532185163,
    44.93341329331527,
    51.41916168045678,
    71.67858256795647,
    -5.171746566566566,
    42.12397857815204,
    33.60284657111993,
    -6.027905590545506,
    -25.5556219723855,
    6.171709404878371,
    45.445697401021654,
    -5.953292580568297,
    -0.044716494554401486,
    -44.48393014168762,
    3.23796821790824
  ],
  "coverage_caveat": "Physical NW2 is Lower-48; STEO NGWGPUS is US total (incl. small AK)."
}