{
  "title": "H05_E_MECHANICAL_CONFOUND_RESULT_v0_1",
  "created_at_utc": "2026-09-13T23:16:32Z",
  "confound_freeze": "H05_E_MECHANICAL_CONFOUND_FREEZE_v0_1",
  "confound_freeze_json_sha256": "4a9d2e501d375a5d9c0a9296da12bc9f571dba9b3fa3f850307fbbd36864da2a",
  "parent_run_result_json_sha256": "27e7af66549e57661fc7bad4a7af06f67a2c74a1a804f165c25bbb0bbbd8597d",
  "hub_job": "77356229-193e-4693-a90c-cae8dcb0bc4a",
  "status_fields": {
    "STATUS": "EXPLORATORY",
    "VINTAGE_STATUS": "UNVERIFIED/INCOMPLETE",
    "CLAIM_STRENGTH": "LOW",
    "CAPITAL_USE": "PROHIBITED",
    "MODEL_CHANGE": "NO",
    "REAL_CAPITAL": "PROHIBITED"
  },
  "sample": {
    "development_N": 59,
    "holdout_N": 81
  },
  "primary_check_id": "C1_NESTED_MECH_RAW_DELTA",
  "metrics_holdout": {
    "A0": {
      "RMSE": 110.53701684856048,
      "MAE": 78.86052252723482,
      "directional_accuracy": 0.48148148148148145
    },
    "A_mech": {
      "RMSE": 76.73511561197498,
      "MAE": 64.07103081830549,
      "directional_accuracy": 0.691358024691358,
      "mech_coef": 3.2931360785369646,
      "mech_feature_train_variance": 8155.5525280091915
    },
    "B_vs_mech": {
      "RMSE": 79.31387259501078,
      "MAE": 65.65456766360478,
      "directional_accuracy": 0.6172839506172839,
      "surprise_coef_given_mech": 3.4297572072650313,
      "mech_coef": -0.20132417593586482
    },
    "B_original_diagnostic": {
      "RMSE": 79.04695340204732,
      "MAE": 65.57468093584143,
      "directional_accuracy": 0.6172839506172839,
      "surprise_coef": 3.23796821790824
    },
    "primary_pct_improvement_B_vs_mech_over_A_mech": -3.36059568356651,
    "diagnostic_pct_A0_to_A_mech": 30.579711847023408,
    "diagnostic_pct_A0_to_B_original": 28.48825157789054,
    "success_threshold_pct": 5.0
  },
  "disposition": "MECHANICAL",
  "prior_disposition": "EXPLORATORY_PROMOTE",
  "claim_framing_after_confound": "DOWNGRADED_MECHANICAL",
  "plain_english": "H05-E mechanical confound C1: incremental holdout RMSE improvement of surprise over A0+raw_mean_delta = -3.3606% (bar 5%). A_mech RMSE=76.7351, B_vs_mech RMSE=79.3139. Diagnostic: raw delta alone vs A0 improves 30.58%. Disposition MECHANICAL. CLAIM_STRENGTH LOW; capital prohibited; not a validated edge.",
  "augmented_unit_table": "h05e_run/unit_table_confound_c1.json"
}