{
  "title": "H05_E_PROSPECTIVE_PROTOCOL_SKETCH_v0_1",
  "created_at_utc": "2026-09-13T23:16:46Z",
  "hub_job": "77356229-193e-4693-a90c-cae8dcb0bc4a",
  "outcomes": "NONE (design only)",
  "status_fields": {
    "STATUS": "DESIGN_ONLY",
    "CLAIM_STRENGTH": "LOW",
    "CAPITAL_USE": "PROHIBITED",
    "MODEL_CHANGE": "NO",
    "REAL_CAPITAL": "PROHIBITED"
  },
  "context": {
    "parent_disposition_before_confound": "EXPLORATORY_PROMOTE",
    "confound_c1_disposition": "MECHANICAL",
    "note": "Surprise added nothing (negative incremental) once raw weekly \u0394 working-gas was in the baseline; raw \u0394 alone \u224830.58% vs A0 vs original surprise lift \u224828.49%. Prospective work must beat a mechanical NW2/WNGSR null, not A0."
  },
  "release_recipe": {
    "eia_weekly_nw2": [
      "series_id NW2_EPG0_SWO_R48_BCF",
      "week_ending_date, stocks_bcf, delta_bcf",
      "retrieval_timestamp_utc, source_url, file/response sha256",
      "release_proxy = week_ending + 6d (H05-E lock) or official WNGSR timestamp if first-print exists",
      "vintage note (hist XLS = revised / UNVERIFIED)"
    ],
    "eia_steo_ngwgpus": [
      "issue_id, filename, file_sha256, retrieval_timestamp_utc",
      "forecast_date_calendar + source (PARSED | SCHEDULE_PROXY)",
      "full NGWGPUS month map (bcf)"
    ],
    "pair_prediction_before_dest_opened": {
      "unit_key": "origin|destination issue ids",
      "prediction_timestamp_utc": "when prediction logged",
      "sources_hashes": "weekly snapshot + origin STEO sha256; destination marked unavailable",
      "features": [
        "nw2_l48_wg_mean_raw_delta_bcf",
        "n_weeks",
        "optional latest level"
      ],
      "frozen_model_id_sha256": "predeclared freeze only",
      "prediction": "yhat and/or mechanical_null_yhat",
      "future_target": "expected dest issue, month M, CLOSED_UNTIL_DEST_RELEASE",
      "guards": "CAPITAL PROHIBITED; not validated edge"
    },
    "cadence": [
      "Weekly WNGSR/NW2 \u2192 append hashed snapshot",
      "New STEO \u2192 first close prior scored unit (if any), then write next prediction BEFORE reading dest NGWGPUS[M]",
      "Never backfill after destination known"
    ]
  },
  "scoring_future_not_run_here": "RMSE/MAE vs realized revision; primary incremental test = beat mechanical-null baseline.",
  "what_this_is_not": [
    "Not trading authority",
    "Not MODEL_CHANGE",
    "Not an incremental-edge claim",
    "Not vintage certification"
  ]
}