# H06_E_EXPLORATORY_RUN_RESULT_v0_1

**Freeze:** `H06_E_EXPLORATORY_FREEZE_v0_1` sha `c24ae989f20e3c160a8ad08852cda170a92729767f632b1e432d4f798263fad9`  
**Result JSON sha256:** `d6dc75e7234c2d79eefe0823b112d5bd0532221e6b8f9d315b506934c59b5747`  
**Hub job:** `77356229-193e-4693-a90c-cae8dcb0bc4a`  
**Created:** 2026-09-13T23:19:48Z

## STATUS
EXPLORATORY · VINTAGE UNVERIFIED/INCOMPLETE · CLAIM_STRENGTH LOW · CAPITAL_USE PROHIBITED · MODEL_CHANGE NO

## Sample
| Split | N |
|-------|--:|
| Development | 39 |
| Holdout | 69 |
| Exclusions | 32 |

Development destination years: 2015–2019  
Holdout destination years: 2020–2026

## Metrics (holdout RMSE primary)
| Model | RMSE | MAE | Directional accuracy |
|-------|------|-----|----------------------|
| A baseline | 51.429457 | 26.363828 | 0.5072 |
| B baseline+NOAA HDD+CDD | 52.994751 | 30.355798 | 0.5362 |

- Absolute improvement (RMSE): **-1.565294**
- % improvement: **-3.0436%**
- Success threshold: **5.0%**
- Model B DD coefficient: **0.115535** (expected POSITIVE; match=YES)

## Disposition
# **KILL**

H06-E exploratory: NOAA HDD+CDD surprises did not clear the frozen 5% holdout RMSE bar. Holdout RMSE baseline=51.4295, +DD=52.9948, relative improvement=-3.04%. Disposition KILL. Vintage unverified; capital prohibited.

## Mechanical risks (upfront — especially if PROMOTE)
1. STEO embeds ZWHDPUS/ZWCDPUS — sales revision may track STEO weather-table update
2. Near-history sales cells may absorb Electric Power Monthly actuals
3. NOAA timing SCHEDULE_PROXY; CAG hist can revise
4. EXTCPUS→ELTCTWH alias ~Aug2019

## Vintage limitations
- NOAA CAG from live hist CSV — not first-print
- STEO forecast dates mix PARSED + SCHEDULE_PROXY
- No capital / no validated-edge claim