{
  "title": "H06_E_EXPLORATORY_RUN_RESULT_v0_1",
  "created_at_utc": "2026-09-13T23:19:48Z",
  "freeze_artifact": "H06_E_EXPLORATORY_FREEZE_v0_1",
  "freeze_json_sha256": "c24ae989f20e3c160a8ad08852cda170a92729767f632b1e432d4f798263fad9",
  "hub_job": "77356229-193e-4693-a90c-cae8dcb0bc4a",
  "status_fields": {
    "STATUS": "EXPLORATORY",
    "VINTAGE_STATUS": "UNVERIFIED/INCOMPLETE",
    "CLAIM_STRENGTH": "LOW",
    "CAPITAL_USE": "PROHIBITED",
    "MODEL_CHANGE": "NO",
    "REAL_CAPITAL": "PROHIBITED"
  },
  "sample": {
    "development_N": 39,
    "holdout_N": 69,
    "exclusions_N": 32,
    "exclusions": [
      {
        "unit_key": "2015-03|2015-04",
        "reason": "no_admitted_dd_months"
      },
      {
        "unit_key": "2015-05|2015-06",
        "reason": "no_admitted_dd_months"
      },
      {
        "unit_key": "2015-08|2015-09",
        "reason": "no_admitted_dd_months"
      },
      {
        "unit_key": "2015-11|2015-12",
        "reason": "no_admitted_dd_months"
      },
      {
        "unit_key": "2016-01|2016-02",
        "reason": "no_admitted_dd_months"
      },
      {
        "unit_key": "2016-05|2016-06",
        "reason": "no_admitted_dd_months"
      },
      {
        "unit_key": "2016-07|2016-08",
        "reason": "no_admitted_dd_months"
      },
      {
        "unit_key": "2016-10|2016-11",
        "reason": "no_admitted_dd_months"
      },
      {
        "unit_key": "2017-01|2017-02",
        "reason": "no_admitted_dd_months"
      },
      {
        "unit_key": "2017-04|2017-05",
        "reason": "no_admitted_dd_months"
      },
      {
        "unit_key": "2017-07|2017-08",
        "reason": "no_admitted_dd_months"
      },
      {
        "unit_key": "2017-10|2017-11",
        "reason": "no_admitted_dd_months"
      },
      {
        "unit_key": "2017-12|2018-01",
        "reason": "no_admitted_dd_months"
      },
      {
        "unit_key": "2018-04|2018-05",
        "reason": "no_admitted_dd_months"
      },
      {
        "unit_key": "2018-07|2018-08",
        "reason": "no_admitted_dd_months"
      },
      {
        "unit_key": "2018-09|2018-10",
        "reason": "no_admitted_dd_months"
      },
      {
        "unit_key": "2018-12|2019-01",
        "reason": "no_admitted_dd_months"
      },
      {
        "unit_key": "2019-03|2019-04",
        "reason": "no_admitted_dd_months"
      },
      {
        "unit_key": "2019-06|2019-07",
        "reason": "no_admitted_dd_months"
      },
      {
        "unit_key": "2019-09|2019-10",
        "reason": "no_admitted_dd_months"
      },
      {
        "unit_key": "2019-12|2020-01",
        "reason": "no_admitted_dd_months"
      },
      {
        "unit_key": "2020-03|2020-04",
        "reason": "no_admitted_dd_months"
      },
      {
        "unit_key": "2020-05|2020-06",
        "reason": "no_admitted_dd_months"
      },
      {
        "unit_key": "2020-08|2020-09",
        "reason": "no_admitted_dd_months"
      },
      {
        "unit_key": "2020-11|2020-12",
        "reason": "no_admitted_dd_months"
      },
      {
        "unit_key": "2021-01|2021-02",
        "reason": "no_admitted_dd_months"
      },
      {
        "unit_key": "2021-05|2021-06",
        "reason": "no_admitted_dd_months"
      },
      {
        "unit_key": "2021-08|2021-09",
        "reason": "no_admitted_dd_months"
      },
      {
        "unit_key": "2021-10|2021-11",
        "reason": "no_admitted_dd_months"
      },
      {
        "unit_key": "2022-01|2022-02",
        "reason": "no_admitted_dd_months"
      },
      {
        "unit_key": "2022-05|2022-06",
        "reason": "no_admitted_dd_months"
      },
      {
        "unit_key": "2022-07|2022-08",
        "reason": "no_admitted_dd_months"
      }
    ],
    "development_destination_years": [
      2015,
      2016,
      2017,
      2018,
      2019
    ],
    "holdout_destination_years": [
      2020,
      2021,
      2022,
      2023,
      2024,
      2025,
      2026
    ]
  },
  "metrics_holdout": {
    "model_A_baseline": {
      "RMSE": 51.429457494619335,
      "MAE": 26.36382791034401,
      "directional_accuracy": 0.5072463768115942
    },
    "model_B_baseline_plus_noaa_dd": {
      "RMSE": 52.99475128237118,
      "MAE": 30.35579755456779,
      "directional_accuracy": 0.5362318840579711
    },
    "absolute_improvement_RMSE": -1.5652937877518482,
    "pct_improvement_RMSE": -3.0435743715858035,
    "success_threshold_pct": 5.0,
    "feature_coefficient": 0.11553468830803713,
    "expected_sign": "POSITIVE",
    "feature_sign_matches_expected": true,
    "feature_train_variance": 2307.6512557527944,
    "rank_A": 14,
    "rank_B": 15
  },
  "disposition": "KILL",
  "likely_mechanical_risks_upfront": [
    "STEO Table 9c embeds ZWHDPUS/ZWCDPUS; ELTCTWH/EXTCPUS revisions may partly track STEO weather-table updates rather than independent judgment lag",
    "Near-history retail-sales cells may incorporate Electric Power Monthly actuals (actuals-copy risk, distinct from inventory-copy but still mundane)",
    "NOAA CAG release timing is SCHEDULE_PROXY (month_end+10d); hist values can revise \u2014 VINTAGE_UNVERIFIED",
    "Series code break EXTCPUS\u2192ELTCTWH around Aug2019; alias locked but unit continuity not first-print certified"
  ],
  "plain_english": "H06-E exploratory: NOAA HDD+CDD surprises did not clear the frozen 5% holdout RMSE bar. Holdout RMSE baseline=51.4295, +DD=52.9948, relative improvement=-3.04%. Disposition KILL. Vintage unverified; capital prohibited.",
  "coef_A": [
    -12.577556738109074,
    -0.632138669775437,
    -13.732033531627296,
    1.9866446398279327,
    12.58552644381599,
    -4.944382411175985,
    -4.947679752140181,
    -0.5413649257087833,
    179.00381843797828,
    -13.857506750615377,
    3.817521197217114,
    -2.841507192235219,
    0.08130820367820486,
    26.336756936403063
  ],
  "coef_B": [
    -17.274446095400283,
    7.964272606348411,
    -16.690327485321706,
    0.564998444006208,
    23.198823446432325,
    -5.642160602635233,
    -2.8111515102097933,
    2.1310739821502716,
    183.37767673273356,
    -13.917515543835378,
    8.291591924688944,
    -2.3494616972612006,
    0.09263380754486034,
    30.645285442733137,
    0.11553468830803713
  ]
}