{
  "title": "H07_E_EXPLORATORY_RUN_RESULT_v0_1",
  "created_at_utc": "2026-09-13T23:25:14Z",
  "freeze_artifact": "H07_E_EXPLORATORY_FREEZE_v0_1",
  "freeze_json_sha256": "175d4c1a414e3dae9e6df355e18c6f3687511c3a275ea2f1baadaa8adfc22ec5",
  "hub_job": "77356229-193e-4693-a90c-cae8dcb0bc4a",
  "status_fields": {
    "STATUS": "EXPLORATORY",
    "VINTAGE_STATUS": "UNVERIFIED/INCOMPLETE",
    "CLAIM_STRENGTH": "LOW",
    "CAPITAL_USE": "PROHIBITED",
    "MODEL_CHANGE": "NO",
    "REAL_CAPITAL": "PROHIBITED"
  },
  "sample": {
    "development_N": 59,
    "holdout_N": 81,
    "exclusions_N": 0,
    "exclusions": [],
    "development_destination_years": [
      2015,
      2016,
      2017,
      2018,
      2019
    ],
    "holdout_destination_years": [
      2020,
      2021,
      2022,
      2023,
      2024,
      2025,
      2026
    ]
  },
  "metrics_holdout": {
    "model_A_baseline": {
      "RMSE": 0.39766940163069575,
      "MAE": 0.1318333137371815,
      "directional_accuracy": 0.6172839506172839
    },
    "model_B_baseline_plus_wps_ps": {
      "RMSE": 0.4009188351515297,
      "MAE": 0.14039568455680557,
      "directional_accuracy": 0.4567901234567901
    },
    "absolute_improvement_RMSE": -0.0032494335208339553,
    "pct_improvement_RMSE": -0.8171193226104964,
    "success_threshold_pct": 5.0,
    "feature_coefficient": -2.7526806742148698e-05,
    "expected_sign": "POSITIVE",
    "feature_sign_matches_expected": false,
    "feature_train_variance": 59717.80537047858,
    "rank_A": 14,
    "rank_B": 15
  },
  "disposition": "KILL",
  "likely_mechanical_risks_upfront": [
    "STEO near-history consumption cells may absorb Weekly Petroleum Status Report / Petroleum Supply Monthly product-supplied actuals (same concept family)",
    "Weekly hist xls is live revised history \u2014 not first-print WPS",
    "WPS release timing locked as SCHEDULE_PROXY (week_end Friday + 5d \u2248 Wednesday)",
    "Combined gas+distillate may mix seasonal regimes; STEO MGTCPUSX/DFTCPUS units kb/d match WPS",
    "COVID 2020 demand shock may dominate holdout \u2014 still run once under freeze"
  ],
  "plain_english": "H07-E exploratory: EIA weekly gas+distillate product-supplied surprises did not clear the frozen 5% holdout RMSE bar. Holdout RMSE baseline=0.3977, +WPS=0.4009, relative improvement=-0.82%. Disposition KILL. Vintage unverified; capital prohibited.",
  "coef_A": [
    0.006776095007362788,
    -0.0006611738153927552,
    0.00219521581331112,
    -0.019084835834495887,
    0.03925691462421054,
    -0.02976723841380774,
    -0.0008076496292417183,
    -0.003817492611008881,
    -0.0039997970826739036,
    -0.009984327951537447,
    -0.04939702102088959,
    0.009497041890420825,
    0.14038033105734346,
    -0.08078731082067406
  ],
  "coef_B": [
    0.005845290752099483,
    -0.00048403978135796565,
    0.00409038487847267,
    -0.01936458557663201,
    0.03958830096359662,
    -0.029136689498591255,
    0.00031018741241545646,
    -0.001245041802313818,
    -0.0030144822392771504,
    -0.009587537897561678,
    -0.04835535110472694,
    0.010779649698368771,
    0.14987350264605373,
    -0.07600633057608944,
    -2.7526806742148698e-05
  ]
}