# HANDEL ROAD CHERRY — DECISION PACK v0.2

**Version:** v0.2 (supersedes v0.1 for tonight’s disposition)  
**Date:** 2026-09-24 ~5:40 PM PT  
**Hub job:** `bf383775-2919-4a3e-ad4b-40c9e106d5be`  
**Executor:** Grok  
**Idempotency:** `grok-handel-decision-pack-v0_2-20260924`  
**Status:** **HOLD** — evening decision update for James (no private-fact asks)  
**Hard bans:** **NO plant recommendation** · **NO capital ask** · **NO variety pick** · REAL_CAPITAL=NOT_AUTHORIZED · FREEZE=NO · Never `/james`

**Companion JSON:** `HANDEL_DECISION_PACK_v0_2.json`

---

## Plain English (for James)

**Disposition for planting the 13-ac strip toward E Handel Rd: HOLD (do not plant now).**

Tonight’s pack records what changed and what did not. Owner confirmed strip soils as **Kingdon + Tokay** and **waived the dig-first pit gate (U4 CLOSED)**. That removes the “must dig pits before anything else” blocker. It does **not** unlock planting.

**Production PASS count is still 0.** No C2 / C3 / C7 / C9 system earns an unqualified PASS against the accepted chill/frost/water/DEM constraints. Existing planted Chelan + Coral stay context only (nearest C3 framing) — not a variety pick for the unplanted 13.

**Still blocking plant:** water ID membership UNKNOWN; well GPM/quality not quantified (AG well is primary source, not a capacity proof); surface water is OPTIONAL_UPSIDE only; U6 frost pocket is NARROWED by EPQS DEM (~1.8 ft / ~0.55 m strip relief) but **not CLOSED**; capital remains OFF; no single winning variety invents itself.

This is an honest evening answer to “when will we have analysis?” — the analysis is here. The answer is **hold**, not “need more time,” and not go/kill.

---

## Source ledger (reuse — do not invent)

| Pack | Role |
| --- | --- |
| `HANDEL_DECISION_PACK_v0_1` | Prior stranger-audit baseline |
| `OWNER_SITE_FACTS_v0_4` + `HANDEL_OWNER_FACTS_DELTA_v0_2` | Site lock; AG well primary; Chelan+Coral planted |
| `PARCEL_LOCK_v0_1` / `SITE_CONSTRAINTS_v0_5` | APN, strip rule, soils screen |
| `HANDEL_U4_PUBLIC_SOILS_STATUS_v0_1` | Public SSURGO Kingdon+Tokay strip screen |
| `NSJWCD_OPERATIONAL_CONSTRAINTS_v0_4` | Claude-accepted water framing; surface OPTIONAL_UPSIDE; ID UNKNOWN |
| `CHILL_FROST_HEAT_LODI_v0_3` | Claude-accepted chill/frost framing |
| Hub `/docs/handel-strip-13ac-epqs-transect-v0-1.json` | EPQS 1 m DEM strip relief ~1.8 ft |
| `PHASE2_CANDIDATE_SHORTLIST_v0_1_1` | Scoreboard counting rules |
| `CONDITIONAL_COMPARISON_CARDS_v0_1_2` | Conditional cards (assumptions required) |
| **2026-09-24 OWNER (parent-authoritative)** | Soils confirmed Kingdon+Tokay; pits WAIVED → U4 dig-first CLOSED |

---

## 1. Site lock (unchanged geometry)

| Item | Value | Tag |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Address | **8650 E Handel Rd, Lodi, CA** | OWNER_STATED + OFFICIAL |
| APN | **063-060-32** | OFFICIAL |
| Gross parcel | **38.82 ac** | OWNER_STATED / OFFICIAL |
| Decision block | **13.00 ac** unplanted strip toward E Handel Rd | OWNER_STATED |
| Existing planted | **Chelan + Coral** (nearest **C3** framing — context only) | OWNER_STATED |
| Topography | Flat (owner); SSURGO 0–2% | OWNER + MAP_UNIT |
| District boundary | **IN NSJWCD** | OFFICIAL GIS |
| Net plantable after setbacks | **UNKNOWN** | Do not equate 13 unplanted = 13 net |

---

## 2. Owner delta 2026-09-24 — soils + pits

| Gate | Prior (v0.1) | Tonight (v0.2) | Effect |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Strip soils | RESEARCHED approx. Kingdon+Tokay | **CONFIRMED Kingdon + Tokay** | OWNER confirmed |
| **U4 dig-first pits** | OPEN (required before F4 PASS) | **OWNER_WAIVED → U4 CLOSED** | Dig-first gate closed by owner |
| Pit physical results | None on file | Still **none dug** | Waiver ≠ logged horizons |
| F4 for C2/C3/C7/C9 | Blocked on dig-first | Dig-first cleared; **not** unqualified soil PASS for every rootstock class | Mahaleb (C5) still insufficient without pits |

**Explicit:** Closing U4 by owner waiver does **not** invent pit logs, does **not** auto-PASS any production system, and does **not** authorize capital or a variety.

---

## 3. Climate / DEM (accepted framing — U6 NARROWED)

Sources: `CHILL_FROST_HEAT_LODI_v0_3` · Hub strip EPQS transect · Claude accept on NSJWCD/chill/DEM chain.

| Sub-gate | Status | Mark |
| --- | --- | --- |
| F1 Chill | Regional proxy with **known upward bias** for 2026+; TreeChill-before-cultivar screen; site-year CP **UNKNOWN** | CONDITIONAL regional · parcel UNKNOWN |
| F3 Frost | Decision statistic = P(Tmin≤28°F **after** bloom); bloom as distribution; tails emphasized | CONDITIONAL regional |
| DEM strip relief | EPQS 1 m 3DEP · ~**1.8 ft / ~0.55 m** range · N/W-lower hint only | RESEARCHED model — not survey |
| **U6 frost pocket** | **NARROWED** by DEM magnitude restatement (vs NVA) | **NOT CLOSED** — needs project-measured NVA / logger before close |
| Heat | SJ commercial heat risk real (media 2026 share = anecdotal support only) | CONDITIONAL |

**Climate verdict:** Supports commercially real Lodi cherry planning under risk. **No climate PASS** that clears a production system. U6 stays NARROWED.

---

## 4. Water gate (accepted NSJWCD v0.4)

| Item | Status | Label |
| --- | --- | --- |
| NSJWCD boundary | PASS | OFFICIAL |
| Primary irrigation (13-ac) | **AG WELL** | OWNER_STATED (delta v0.2) |
| Well GPM + water quality | **UNKNOWN** | Binding constraint still open |
| **ID membership** (ID3 / ID3A / ID3B / ID4) | **UNKNOWN** | Not invented |
| Surface delivery | **OPTIONAL_UPSIDE** | Not required to prove plant; not a PASS |
| Dry-year planning | Use dry-year all-in path; never average wet/dry | NSJWCD v0.4 |
| GW charge presence | FY2025–26 NSJWCD tax line **$776.40** | Settles presence only — not ID |
| Handel Lateral / ID3B | CONTINGENT_LIABILITY | Inclusion probability UNKNOWN |
| Capital | **OFF / PROHIBITED** | — |

**Water verdict:** Boundary cleared; primary source named (well). **Still FAIL-to-clear for plant** while ID membership UNKNOWN and well capacity/quality unquantified. Surface remains upside, not a crutch.

**No owner asks this cycle.** Residuals stay BLOCKED/UNKNOWN on the public record.

---

## 5. Rescore — live conditional classes C2 / C3 / C7 / C9

Counting rules unchanged from Phase2 v0.1.1: **production PASS** = unqualified PASS for a production orchard system only. C12 process PASS does **not** count.

### Scoreboard tonight

| Bucket | Count |
| --- | ---: |
| **production PASS** | **0** |
| process PASS (C12 deferral only) | **1** |
| CONDITIONAL (live finalists C2/C3/C7/C9 + hypotheses) | **7** |
| CONDITIONAL/INSUFFICIENT | **4** |
| FAIL | **0** |

### Class-by-class (only live plant-relevant classes)

| ID | Bundle | Overall v0.1.1 | Overall v0.2 | What moved | Why not PASS |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| **C2** | Staggered CA commercial mix · Mazzard · freestanding | CONDITIONAL | **CONDITIONAL** | F4 dig-first cleared by U4 waiver + confirmed Kingdon/Tokay | F5 water capacity/ID; F2 rain; F8 packer; F1 rest-break design; U6 frost not closed |
| **C3** | Low-/mod-chill early (Coral-class framing) · freestanding | CONDITIONAL | **CONDITIONAL** | F4 dig-first cleared; existing Chelan+Coral = **context**, not pick | F3 early frost (U6 NARROWED); F2 early rain; F5; F8; chill proxy bias |
| **C7** | Krymsk 5/6 · Spanish bush/KGB · med density · no full trellis | CONDITIONAL | **CONDITIONAL** | Dig-first waived; soils favorable map+owner confirm | Rooting-depth still unlogged; F6 training/crew; F5; F7 training-year cash; capital OFF |
| **C9** | Self-fertile mid/late · freestanding | CONDITIONAL | **CONDITIONAL** | F4 dig-first cleared | F8 mid/late channel; F2; F5; U6 |
| **C12** | Defer plant / close remaining hard gates first | PASS (process) | **PASS (process only)** | U4 removed from “must close first”; U5/U6 residuals remain | **Not** a production PASS |

**Do not invent a single winning variety.** Relative ladder among CONDITIONAL finalists is unchanged: C2 ≥ C3 ≥ C7 ≥ C9 as planning architecture classes only.

**C5 Mahaleb:** stays **CONDITIONAL/INSUFFICIENT** — owner waiver without pits neither clears nor fails Mahaleb wetness/depth criteria.

---

## 6. Residuals (still open — marked, not asked)

| Residual | Status | Blocks |
| --- | --- | --- |
| **U6 frost pocket** | **NARROWED** (DEM ~1.8 ft) — **not CLOSED** | F3 package timing; soft before scion lock |
| **ID membership** | **UNKNOWN** | Surface rate class / optional upside realism |
| **Well GPM + quality** | **UNKNOWN** | F5 binding for AG-well primary |
| **Surface water** | **OPTIONAL_UPSIDE** | Not a plant requirement; not a PASS |
| **Variety / system pick** | **None** | Hard ban |
| **Capital** | **OFF** | Hard ban |
| Packer / labor / 2026 bids | Preferred, not tonight’s hard stop | F8 / F6 / cost |

---

## 7. Disposition

| Question | Answer |
| --- | --- |
| **GO / HOLD / KILL** for planting the 13 ac | **HOLD** |
| Why not GO | production PASS = **0**; water capacity/ID + U6 frost still open; capital OFF; no variety |
| Why not KILL | Soils confirmed favorable; U4 dig-first closed by owner; existing Chelan+Coral prove commercial cherry is real on-parcel; no verified site FAIL for finalist classes |
| production PASS count | **0** |
| process PASS | **1** (C12 deferral — not plant permission) |

### Decision tree (updated)

```
START (planning only; capital OFF)
│
├─ Site lock OK? YES
├─ U4 dig-first pits? OWNER_WAIVED → CLOSED (soils CONFIRMED Kingdon+Tokay)
├─ U5 / water capacity (well GPM+WQ and/or proven useful surface)?
│    UNKNOWN ──► HOLD (tonight)
├─ U6 frost pocket CLOSED?
│    NARROWED only ──► soft residual; not enough alone to GO
├─ production PASS ≥ 1?
│    NO (0) ──► HOLD / NO_PLANT
└─ variety + capital authorized?
     NO ──► cannot GO
```

**NO_PLANT_UNTIL (hard):** production PASS ≥ 1 after remaining F5 (well capacity/quality and/or useful surface path) is known **without inventing owner answers**; capital remains a separate owner gate (currently OFF).

**Preferred before any future GO:** close or explicitly accept U6 frost residual; packer path; labor path; real 2026 bids.

---

## 8. Explicit non-claims (audit)

- No variety, rootstock, density, or trellis recommendation.  
- No capital ask; REAL_CAPITAL NOT_AUTHORIZED.  
- U4 waiver ≠ pit logs; ≠ F4 PASS for every rootstock (esp. C5).  
- ID membership left UNKNOWN — not invented.  
- Surface OPTIONAL_UPSIDE ≠ required delivery proof for GO.  
- DEM relief NARROWED U6 ≠ frost-free.  
- Chelan+Coral planted ≠ strip variety pick.  
- C12 process PASS ≠ permission to plant.  
- Never `/james` for agent traffic.

---

## Artifact paths + hashes

Computed after write; see companion `.sha256` files and JSON `artifact_sha256_*` fields.

- MD: `/workspace/handel-road-cherry/HANDEL_DECISION_PACK_v0_2.md`  
- JSON: `/workspace/handel-road-cherry/HANDEL_DECISION_PACK_v0_2.json`  
- Hub docs (after publish): `/docs/handel-decision-pack-v0-2` · `/docs/handel-decision-pack-v0-2.json`