# HANDEL ROAD CHERRY — DECISION PACK v0.3

**Version:** v0.3 (supersedes v0.2 for water OWNER_ASSERTED rescore)  
**Date:** 2026-09-24 ~5:45 PM PT  
**Hub job:** `bf383775-2919-4a3e-ad4b-40c9e106d5be`  
**Executor:** Grok  
**Idempotency:** `grok-handel-decision-pack-v0_3-20260924`  
**Status:** **HOLD** — water adequacy OWNER_ASSERTED; production PASS still 0 (no private-fact asks)  
**Hard bans:** **NO plant recommendation** · **NO capital ask** · **NO variety pick** · REAL_CAPITAL=NOT_AUTHORIZED · FREEZE=NO · Never `/james`

**Companion JSON:** `HANDEL_DECISION_PACK_v0_3.json`

---

## Plain English (for James)

**Disposition for planting the 13-ac strip toward E Handel Rd: HOLD (do not plant now).**

Tonight’s pack records the water update and an honest rescore. You said **“All water is good, we have great access.”** That is treated as **OWNER_ASSERTED** water adequacy. For plant-decision purposes the **water gate is CLOSED**. Water is **no longer a plant decision blocker**. Paper may still label ID membership / surface / well GPM-WQ as unlabeled unknowns — those labels are **not gates** unless you reopen them.

Earlier tonight: soils **CONFIRMED Kingdon + Tokay**; pits **OWNER_WAIVED** → **U4 dig-first CLOSED**. That still stands.

**Production PASS count is still 0.** Closing water does **not** auto-mint an unqualified production PASS. Live classes **C2 / C3 / C7 / C9** remain **CONDITIONAL** because other production criteria (frost U6 residual, rain/packer/design/training paths, capital OFF, no variety) are still unmet under Phase2 counting rules. Existing Chelan + Coral stay context only (nearest C3 framing) — not a variety pick for the unplanted 13.

**Still keeps this at HOLD (not GO):** U6 frost pocket **NARROWED** not CLOSED (James did not waive frost); capital **OFF**; no single winning variety; production PASS = 0. Not KILL — soils confirmed favorable, U4 closed, water asserted adequate, existing commercial cherry on-parcel.

---

## Source ledger (reuse — do not invent)

| Pack | Role |
| --- | --- |
| `HANDEL_DECISION_PACK_v0_2` | Prior evening HOLD; U4 waived; soils confirmed |
| `HANDEL_DECISION_PACK_v0_1` | Stranger-audit baseline |
| `OWNER_SITE_FACTS_v0_4` + `HANDEL_OWNER_FACTS_DELTA_v0_2` | Site lock; AG well primary; Chelan+Coral planted |
| `PARCEL_LOCK_v0_1` / `SITE_CONSTRAINTS_v0_5` | APN, strip rule, soils screen |
| `HANDEL_U4_PUBLIC_SOILS_STATUS_v0_1` | Public SSURGO Kingdon+Tokay strip screen |
| `NSJWCD_OPERATIONAL_CONSTRAINTS_v0_4` | Prior water framing; surface OPTIONAL_UPSIDE; paper ID UNKNOWN |
| `CHILL_FROST_HEAT_LODI_v0_3` | Claude-accepted chill/frost framing |
| Hub `/docs/handel-strip-13ac-epqs-transect-v0-1.json` | EPQS 1 m DEM strip relief ~1.8 ft |
| `PHASE2_CANDIDATE_SHORTLIST_v0_1_1` | Scoreboard counting rules |
| `CONDITIONAL_COMPARISON_CARDS_v0_1_2` | Conditional cards (assumptions required) |
| **2026-09-24 OWNER (parent-authoritative)** | Soils Kingdon+Tokay; pits WAIVED → U4 CLOSED; water “all good / great access” → OWNER_ASSERTED |

---

## 1. Site lock (unchanged geometry)

| Item | Value | Tag |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Address | **8650 E Handel Rd, Lodi, CA** | OWNER_STATED + OFFICIAL |
| APN | **063-060-32** | OFFICIAL |
| Gross parcel | **38.82 ac** | OWNER_STATED / OFFICIAL |
| Decision block | **13.00 ac** unplanted strip toward E Handel Rd | OWNER_STATED |
| Existing planted | **Chelan + Coral** (nearest **C3** framing — context only) | OWNER_STATED |
| Topography | Flat (owner); SSURGO 0–2% | OWNER + MAP_UNIT |
| District boundary | **IN NSJWCD** | OFFICIAL GIS |
| Net plantable after setbacks | **UNKNOWN** | Do not equate 13 unplanted = 13 net |

---

## 2. Owner deltas 2026-09-24

### 2a. Soils + pits (unchanged from v0.2)

| Gate | Prior (v0.1) | v0.2 / v0.3 | Effect |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Strip soils | RESEARCHED approx. Kingdon+Tokay | **CONFIRMED Kingdon + Tokay** | OWNER confirmed |
| **U4 dig-first pits** | OPEN | **OWNER_WAIVED → U4 CLOSED** | Dig-first gate closed by owner |
| Pit physical results | None on file | Still **none dug** | Waiver ≠ logged horizons |

### 2b. Water — OWNER_ASSERTED (new in v0.3)

| Gate | Prior (v0.2) | Tonight (v0.3) | Effect |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Water adequacy for plant decision | Open / FAIL-to-clear (ID UNKNOWN; well GPM/WQ UNKNOWN) | **OWNER_ASSERTED** (“All water is good, we have great access”) | **Water gate CLOSED** for decision purposes |
| Plant decision blocker? | Yes (F5 / U5) | **No** — water is **not** a plant decision blocker | Unless owner reopens |
| Paper labels: ID membership | UNKNOWN | Still **UNKNOWN** (unlabeled) | **Non-gating** |
| Paper labels: surface delivery | OPTIONAL_UPSIDE | Still OPTIONAL_UPSIDE / unlabeled detail | **Non-gating** |
| Paper labels: well GPM + WQ | UNKNOWN | Still unlabeled UNKNOWN on paper | **Non-gating** (adequacy asserted) |
| Primary irrigation (13-ac) | AG WELL | AG WELL (unchanged) | OWNER_STATED |

**Explicit:** OWNER_ASSERTED water adequacy closes the **decision gate**. It does **not** invent metered GPM, lab WQ, ID membership, or contracted CFS. Those paper UNKNOWNs may remain on the record as non-gates. Closing water does **not** auto-PASS any production system and does **not** authorize capital or a variety.

---

## 3. Climate / DEM (accepted framing — U6 NARROWED)

Sources: `CHILL_FROST_HEAT_LODI_v0_3` · Hub strip EPQS transect · Claude accept on NSJWCD/chill/DEM chain.

| Sub-gate | Status | Mark |
| --- | --- | --- |
| F1 Chill | Regional proxy with **known upward bias** for 2026+; TreeChill-before-cultivar screen; site-year CP **UNKNOWN** | CONDITIONAL regional · parcel UNKNOWN |
| F3 Frost | Decision statistic = P(Tmin≤28°F **after** bloom); bloom as distribution; tails emphasized | CONDITIONAL regional |
| DEM strip relief | EPQS 1 m 3DEP · ~**1.8 ft / ~0.55 m** range · N/W-lower hint only | RESEARCHED model — not survey |
| **U6 frost pocket** | **NARROWED** by DEM magnitude restatement (vs NVA) | **NOT CLOSED** — needs project-measured NVA / logger before close; **James did NOT waive frost** |
| Heat | SJ commercial heat risk real (media 2026 share = anecdotal support only) | CONDITIONAL |

**Climate verdict:** Supports commercially real Lodi cherry planning under risk. **No climate PASS** that clears a production system. U6 stays NARROWED.

---

## 4. Water gate (v0.3 — OWNER_ASSERTED / CLOSED for decision)

| Item | Status | Label |
| --- | --- | --- |
| **Decision gate (water adequacy)** | **CLOSED** | **OWNER_ASSERTED** 2026-09-24 |
| Plant decision blocker | **No** | Unless owner reopens |
| NSJWCD boundary | PASS | OFFICIAL |
| Primary irrigation (13-ac) | **AG WELL** | OWNER_STATED |
| Well GPM + water quality (paper) | Unlabeled **UNKNOWN** | **Non-gating** under OWNER_ASSERTED |
| **ID membership** (paper) | Unlabeled **UNKNOWN** | **Non-gating** |
| Surface delivery (paper) | **OPTIONAL_UPSIDE** / unlabeled detail | **Non-gating** |
| Dry-year planning habit | Prefer dry-year all-in path; never average wet/dry | Methodology habit — not a reopen |
| GW charge presence | FY2025–26 NSJWCD tax line **$776.40** | Settles presence only — not ID |
| Handel Lateral / ID3B | Paper CONTINGENT_LIABILITY | Non-gating unless reopened |
| Capital | **OFF / PROHIBITED** | — |

**Water verdict:** Adequacy **OWNER_ASSERTED** → decision gate **CLOSED**. Paper UNKNOWNs retained as labels only. **No owner asks this cycle.**

---

## 5. Rescore — live conditional classes C2 / C3 / C7 / C9

Counting rules unchanged from Phase2 v0.1.1: **production PASS** = unqualified PASS for a production orchard system only. C12 process PASS does **not** count.

**Honesty rule for v0.3:** Removing F5/water as a missing piece does **not** mint PASS. Upgrade to PASS only if remaining production criteria are actually met. They are not.

### Scoreboard tonight

| Bucket | Count |
| --- | ---: |
| **production PASS** | **0** |
| process PASS (C12 deferral only) | **1** |
| CONDITIONAL (live finalists C2/C3/C7/C9 + hypotheses) | **7** |
| CONDITIONAL/INSUFFICIENT | **4** |
| FAIL | **0** |

### Class-by-class (only live plant-relevant classes)

| ID | Bundle | Overall v0.2 | Overall v0.3 | What moved | Why not PASS |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| **C2** | Staggered CA commercial mix · Mazzard · freestanding | CONDITIONAL | **CONDITIONAL** | F5/water removed as decision blocker (OWNER_ASSERTED) | F2 rain; F8 packer; F1 rest-break design; U6 frost not closed |
| **C3** | Low-/mod-chill early (Coral-class framing) · freestanding | CONDITIONAL | **CONDITIONAL** | F5/water non-gating; Chelan+Coral = **context**, not pick | F3 early frost (U6 NARROWED); F2 early rain; F8; chill proxy bias |
| **C7** | Krymsk 5/6 · Spanish bush/KGB · med density · no full trellis | CONDITIONAL | **CONDITIONAL** | F5/water non-gating; soils map+owner confirm | Rooting-depth still unlogged (waiver ≠ logs); F6 training/crew; F7 training-year cash; capital OFF |
| **C9** | Self-fertile mid/late · freestanding | CONDITIONAL | **CONDITIONAL** | F5/water non-gating | F8 mid/late channel; F2; U6 |
| **C12** | Defer plant / close remaining hard gates first | PASS (process) | **PASS (process only)** | Water + U4 removed from “must close first” hard list; U6 residual remains | **Not** a production PASS |

**Do not invent a single winning variety.** Relative ladder among CONDITIONAL finalists unchanged: C2 ≥ C3 ≥ C7 ≥ C9 as planning architecture classes only.

**C5 Mahaleb:** stays **CONDITIONAL/INSUFFICIENT** — owner pit waiver without logs neither clears nor fails Mahaleb wetness/depth criteria.

---

## 6. Residuals (still open — marked, not asked)

| Residual | Status | Blocks / note |
| --- | --- | --- |
| **U6 frost pocket** | **NARROWED** (DEM ~1.8 ft) — **not CLOSED**; James did **not** waive | Soft residual before any future GO; not alone enough to GO |
| **ID membership** (paper) | Unlabeled **UNKNOWN** | **Non-gating** under water OWNER_ASSERTED |
| **Well GPM + quality** (paper) | Unlabeled **UNKNOWN** | **Non-gating** under water OWNER_ASSERTED |
| **Surface water** (paper) | **OPTIONAL_UPSIDE** | **Non-gating** |
| **Variety / system pick** | **None** | Hard ban |
| **Capital** | **OFF** | Hard ban |
| Packer / labor / 2026 bids | Preferred, not tonight’s hard stop | F8 / F6 / cost |

---

## 7. Disposition

| Question | Answer |
| --- | --- |
| **GO / HOLD / KILL** for planting the 13 ac | **HOLD** |
| Why not GO | production PASS = **0**; U6 frost NARROWED not closed; capital OFF; no variety; other CONDITIONAL production criteria unmet (closing water alone does not mint PASS) |
| Why not KILL | Soils confirmed favorable; U4 dig-first closed; water adequacy OWNER_ASSERTED; existing Chelan+Coral prove commercial cherry is real on-parcel; no verified site FAIL for finalist classes |
| production PASS count | **0** |
| process PASS | **1** (C12 deferral — not plant permission) |
| Water plant-decision blocker | **No** (OWNER_ASSERTED / gate CLOSED) |

### Decision tree (updated)

```
START (planning only; capital OFF)
│
├─ Site lock OK? YES
├─ U4 dig-first pits? OWNER_WAIVED → CLOSED (soils CONFIRMED Kingdon+Tokay)
├─ Water adequacy gate?
│    OWNER_ASSERTED → CLOSED for decision (paper ID/GPM/WQ UNKNOWNs non-gating)
├─ U6 frost pocket CLOSED?
│    NARROWED only ──► residual; James did not waive; not enough alone to GO
├─ production PASS ≥ 1?
│    NO (0) ──► HOLD / NO_PLANT
└─ variety + capital authorized?
     NO ──► cannot GO
```

**NO_PLANT_UNTIL (hard):** production PASS ≥ 1 under Phase2 rules **without** treating closed water as automatic PASS; capital remains a separate owner gate (currently OFF).

**Preferred before any future GO:** close or explicitly accept U6 frost residual (field NVA); packer path; labor path; real 2026 bids; owner capital gate.

---

## 8. Explicit non-claims (audit)

- No variety, rootstock, density, or trellis recommendation.  
- No capital ask; REAL_CAPITAL NOT_AUTHORIZED.  
- U4 waiver ≠ pit logs; ≠ F4 PASS for every rootstock (esp. C5).  
- Water OWNER_ASSERTED ≠ invented GPM / WQ / ID / CFS; paper UNKNOWNs may remain **non-gating**.  
- Closing water ≠ automatic production PASS for C2/C3/C7/C9.  
- DEM relief NARROWED U6 ≠ frost-free; James did not waive frost.  
- Chelan+Coral planted ≠ strip variety pick.  
- C12 process PASS ≠ permission to plant.  
- No new private-fact asks to James.  
- Never `/james` for agent traffic.

---

## Artifact paths + hashes

Computed after write; see companion `.sha256` files and JSON `artifact_sha256_*` fields.

- MD: `/workspace/handel-road-cherry/HANDEL_DECISION_PACK_v0_3.md`  
- JSON: `/workspace/handel-road-cherry/HANDEL_DECISION_PACK_v0_3.json`  
- Hub docs (after publish): `/docs/handel-decision-pack-v0-3` · `/docs/handel-decision-pack-v0-3.json`