# NSJWCD Operational Constraints Pack — v0.4

**Site:** 8650 E Handel Rd, Lodi, CA · APN **063-060-32** · 38.82 ac gross / 13 ac road-depth plant strip  
**District boundary:** NSJWCD WITHIN (**OFFICIAL** GIS — prior `PARCEL_LOCK_v0_1.md` / `OWNER_SITE_FACTS_v0_2.md`)  
**Date:** 2026-09-22 ~10:30 PM PT  
**Prior:** `NSJWCD_OPERATIONAL_CONSTRAINTS_v0_3.md` retained  
**Scope:** Public-source deliveries, assessments, rates, drought/availability rules. **No variety / rootstock / system recommendation. No plant. No capital ask.**  
**Method tags:** **OFFICIAL** · **OWNER_STATED** · **ASSUMPTION** · **UNKNOWN** · **RESEARCHED** (derived from public docs / website, not district letter for this APN)  
**v0.4 reason:** Claude verification `adb34b21` narrow item (b) — **retire the illustrative $1,941 GW line explicitly** so no downstream reader averages a modelled vineyard-code figure against the billed NSJWCD charge ($776.40). Charge presence remains settled; ID membership still **UNKNOWN**. No new research.

**Responds to:** Claude Hub comment `adb34b21` (verification of Grok `952c7467` / pack v0.3) on job `bf383775`.  
**Does NOT discharge:** Codex provenance audit still owed on `a4541e9f`.

---



## CHANGED vs v0.3 (identifiable)

| # | Claude item (`adb34b21`) | Change |
| --- | --- | --- |
| R1 | Retire $1,941 illustrative GW line | **RETIRED:** The vineyard-code construction `2 af/ac × 38.82 ac × $25 ≈ $1,941/yr` is **removed from planning tables**. It must **not** be averaged with, contrasted as a live option against, or carried beside the billed NSJWCD line. Historical mention only: it was a misapplied Assessor vineyard-code model; the FY2025–26 secured bill reports NSJWCD **$776.40** (charge **presence** only). |

## CHANGED vs v0.2.1 (identifiable, retained from v0.3)

| # | Claude item | Change |
| --- | --- | --- |
| C1 | Wrong planning default on rate | **CHANGED:** Planning default = **non-ID $100/af** (CY2026); ID3 $60/af **ONLY IF** membership proven on tax bill / district letter. |
| C2 | Vineyard GW math misapplied | **CHANGED:** Dropped single 2 af/ac vineyard point estimate as planning figure. Carry **two-sided sub-area range** (planted vs unplanted) + tax-bill line settles **charge presence** only. |
| C3 | Drought asymmetry buried | **CHANGED:** Surface promoted to **OPTIONAL_UPSIDE**; well GPM + WQ named as binding constraint (both still **UNKNOWN**). |
| C4 | Rate N=2 not a distribution | **CHANGED:** Cost planning uses **dry-year all-in** as planning number; wet-year rate = favorable tail. Never average of two points. |
| C5 | Handel Lateral as opportunity | **CHANGED:** Carried as **CONTINGENT LIABILITY**; inclusion-probability = **UNKNOWN**. |
| C6 | Website 50% GW discount tag | **CHANGED:** Tag downgraded **OFFICIAL → RESEARCHED** (website; confirm on bill). |

---

## 0. Bottom line (screening)

| Gate | Status | Label |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Inside NSJWCD / NSJWCD_GSA boundary | Cleared (prior) | **OFFICIAL** |
| Surface delivery to *this* APN today | **Not proven** — treat as **OPTIONAL_UPSIDE** only | **UNKNOWN** (needs turnout/contract); **not** load-bearing for establishment |
| Improvement District membership (ID3 / ID3A / ID3B / ID4) for 063-060-32 | **Not proven** | **UNKNOWN** (tax bill extract has **no** named ID line) |
| Groundwater **assessment charge presence** on FY2025–26 tax bill | **Present:** NSJWCD line **$776.40** | **OFFICIAL** bill extract — settles *charge presence*, **not** ID membership |
| Groundwater charge amount / AF basis / discount | Roll line seen; AF basis & ID discount unproven | Charge presence **OFFICIAL** extract; mechanism details **UNKNOWN** pending clearer bill fields / owner PDF |
| Dry-year surface reliability | Explicitly **not guaranteed**; Permit 10477 often **zero in dry years** | **OFFICIAL** |
| Binding constraint on 13-ac strip (establishment) | **Well GPM + water quality** | Both **UNKNOWN** (U5) — surface cannot substitute in dry years |
| Handel Lateral / ID3B | **CONTINGENT LIABILITY** if included; formation threshold ≥200 ac | **OFFICIAL** project docs; this-APN inclusion-probability **UNKNOWN** |

**Hard rule retained:** boundary membership ≠ delivery eligibility (`PARCEL_LOCK` / site facts).

**CHANGED (C3) — headline drought asymmetry:** Permit 10477 typically ~20k af wet / **ZERO dry**, plus CY2025 fact of **no Permit 10477 irrigation water**, is the dominant operational finding. **ZERO in dry years** means surface delivery **cannot** be load-bearing in a cherry **ESTABLISHMENT** plan (missed irrigation in years 1–3 is not recoverable by buying water late). Surface = **OPTIONAL_UPSIDE**. Well GPM + WQ = actual binding constraint on the 13 ac (both still **UNKNOWN**).

---

## 1. Institutional frame (OFFICIAL)

| Item | Fact | Source |
| --- | --- | --- |
| District | North San Joaquin Water Conservation District (founded 1948); ~150k ac east of Lodi both sides of Mokelumne | nsjwcd.com About |
| Mission | Groundwater management via conjunctive use (surface + GW) | About |
| Water right | Permit **10477** — up to **20,000 afa** Mokelumne when available | Surface Water Rules §II.5 (adopted 2020-01-27) |
| Typical availability | **~20,000 afa** in above-normal/wet years; **zero in dry years**; intermediate 3–20k “rare” | Same |
| GSA | NSJWCD GSA · Eastern San Joaquin subbasin 5-022.01 | Prior GIS + GW charge materials |
| Office | 498 E Kettleman Ln, Lodi 95240 · (209) 368-2101 · PO Box E, Victor 95253 | Surface Water Rules |

Parcel: **WITHIN** IrrigationDistricts `DISTRICT=NSJWCD` (**OFFICIAL** GIS). See `sources/water/district_intersect_raw.json`.

---

## 2. Delivery systems relevant to Handel corridor

### 2.1 South System (primary corridor context) — OFFICIAL

- Largest NSJWCD surface distribution system: south-bank Mokelumne pump station → ~7+ miles pipeline to Pixley Slough; east-side ditch to Bear Creek; associated laterals.
- Built 1960s–70s; modernizing since 2017 (new pump station, pipeline segments, SCADA).
- Uses: irrigation deliveries + direct recharge + DREAM project conveyance (w/ EBMUD & SJ County).
- Landowners wanting South System surface water formed **Improvement District #3 (ID3)** and pay acreage assessments for capital share.
- Sources: nsjwcd.com/south-system; Nov 2018 South System Engineer’s Report; Facilities Map Nov 2023 (`sources/water/nsjwcd_facilities_map_2023.pdf`).

**Handel Road geography:** 2018 proposed ID3 map (`map-of-id-3.pdf`) shows South System mainline crossing the Handel Road corridor with proposed ID3 parcels in that belt. That is **corridor / map context**, **not** proof that APN **063-060-32** is (or was) an ID3 member. Membership for this APN = **UNKNOWN** until tax bill / district confirmation. **Tax extract FY2025–26 shows no named ID3/ID3A/ID3B assessment line** (see §5.2).

### 2.2 Handel Lateral / proposed ID3B — CONTINGENT LIABILITY (CHANGED C5)

| Element | Detail | Label |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Concept | Lateral pipeline **east and west** off South System mainline for irrigation + recharge | OFFICIAL (Mar 2024 board packet staff memo) |
| Cost (2024 estimate) | ~**$1.7M**; **$1M** USDA appropriation; ~$350k landowner ID assessments; ~$350k GW charge | OFFICIAL |
| Formation | Proposed **ID3B**; voluntary (not forced); need **≥200 ac** to form; **cap 1,000 ac** | OFFICIAL |
| Proposed capital assessments (2024 staff memo terms) | **ID3:** $50/ac × 10 yr = **$500/ac**. **ID3B:** memo states `$35/acre for ten years ($300/acre)` **and** separately `1000 acres × $350/acre = $350,000`. **$35×10 = $350**, not $300 — **SOURCE_INCONSISTENT** (`BP_2024-03.txt`). | **OFFICIAL** proposed / dated — may change |
| Design status (Jan 2025) | Handel Lateral **90% plans** complete; landowner discussions ongoing | OFFICIAL (Jan 2025 packet) |
| Neighbor context | Closed-session: **8400 E Handel Rd, APN 063-060-39** — **adjacent corridor**, **not** this APN | OFFICIAL |
| **063-060-32 inclusion** | — | **UNKNOWN** |
| **Inclusion-probability** | — | **UNKNOWN** |
| **Planning treatment (CHANGED C5)** | Carry as **CONTINGENT LIABILITY** (potential assessment if included), **not** an opportunity / infrastructure-upside line | **ASSUMPTION** framing on OFFICIAL project docs |

Illustrative exposed capital **if** *this entire* 38.82 ac were included in both ID3+ID3B at 2024 memo figures (**ASSUMPTION** liability sketch, not an offer):
- Memo parentheticals ($500 + $300 = $800/ac): 38.82 × $800 ≈ **$31,056** over 10 years.
- Consistent $35×10 arithmetic ($500 + $350 = $850/ac): 38.82 × $850 ≈ **$32,997** over 10 years.
Which figure the District intended = **UNKNOWN**. Actual acres assessed, schedule, strip split, and whether this APN is included = **UNKNOWN**. Do **not** book as upside.

### 2.3 North System / ID4 — OFFICIAL (less relevant south-of-river)

- North-bank pump + Acampo Road pipeline; ID4 formation in progress 2026.
- Handel Road plant strip is **south-of-Mokelumne / South System corridor** — treat North System as district-wide context, not primary delivery hypothesis (**ASSUMPTION** geography).

### 2.4 Pixley Lateral / ID3A — OFFICIAL

- Pressurized delivery out of Pixley Slough; **add-on** surface rate on top of ID3 rate (see §4). Relevant only if taking water via that path — **UNKNOWN** for this APN.

---

## 2b. Peer verification attach (retained from v0.2.1)

Codex independently verified ID3B SOURCE_INCONSISTENT + Res 2026-07 minutes/date distinction (`7b6a323d`). No parcel charge-roll / private-bill / delivery entitlement verified by that peer pass. Parcel applicability and delivery gates remain **UNKNOWN**.

---

## 3. Eligibility rules to take surface water — OFFICIAL (Surface Water Rules, Jan 27, 2020)

A landowner is eligible to receive water from District Facilities when **all** of:

1. Turnout + measurement device installed per **Encroachment Permit**;
2. District inspected/approved Landowner Facilities;
3. **Contract** to receive water from District facilities;
4. Current on all required payments.

| Rule | Implication for orchard planning |
| --- | --- |
| No guarantee on **quantity or timing** | Cannot bank on peak ET weeks in dry years without well backup |
| No guarantee on **quality** | Lab still required for well/surface as crop gate |
| Class 1 priority to **ID1 + ID3** | Non-ID lands are Class 2 / first-come if surplus |
| Class 1: first **3,000 af** → ID3; next **4,000 af** → ID1; remainder pro-rata; then Class 2 | Drought years may never leave Class 1 |
| Applications ideally before **May 1** | Ops friction for cherry peak demand |
| Landowner pays for private turnout/meter/facilities | Capex beyond district rates |

---

## 4. Surface water rates — OFFICIAL + planning rule (CHANGED C1, C4)

### 4.1 CY2026 — Resolution **2026-01** (adopted May 18, 2026)

| Customer class | Rate |
| --- | --- |
| ID#1 Tracy Lake | **$3.10 / af** |
| ID#3 South System | **$60.00 / af** |
| ID#3A Pixley Lateral | **$60 ID3 + $60 Pixley add-on = $120 / af** when using Pixley facilities |
| ID#4 North System | **$60.00 / af** |
| North or South System **not** in ID3 or ID4 | **$100.00 / af** |

Recital: District **has water available under Permit 10477** for the **2026** irrigation season (wet-year artifact — **CHANGED C4**: favorable tail, not planning default).

### 4.2 CY2025 — Resolution **2025-04** (drought / purchased-water year)

| Customer class | Rate |
| --- | --- |
| ID3 | **$40 / af** |
| ID3A | **$40 + $60 = $100 / af** (base path) |
| Not in ID3 | **$80 / af** |
| Tracy Lake | **$3.10 / af** |
| **Purchased water surcharge** | **+$36.57 / af** on top (WID purchase) |

Board narrative: **No Permit 10477 irrigation water in 2025**; WID purchase substituted. Example ID3A irrigator all-in: **$134.57 / af**.

### 4.3 Planning default (CHANGED C1 + C4)

**CHANGED C1:** With ID3/ID3A/ID3B membership for APN 063-060-32 still **UNKNOWN**, the **only defensible planning default** is the **non-ID branch**:
- CY2026 non-ID: **$100 / af**
- CY2025 non-ID base: **$80 / af** (+ purchased-water surcharge when applicable)

ID3 **$60 / af** is admissible in cost lines **ONLY IF** ID3 membership is proven on the tax bill / district letter. Any downstream cost line that quietly picks $60 is an unsupported best case.

**CHANGED C4:** CY2025 ID3A all-in **$134.57/af** vs CY2026 ID3 **$60/af** is a >2× single-year swing — **N=2, not a distribution**. Cost planning uses the **DRY-year all-in as the planning number** and the wet-year rate as the **favorable tail** — never the reverse, and **never an average of two points**. The 2026 recital (“Permit 10477 available”) is a wet-year artifact.

### 4.4 Prop 218 ceiling context

- South System @ 3,000 af: up to **$104.41 / af**
- South System @ 6,000 af: up to **$81.60 / af**
- Non-ID $100 is near the high end of published ceilings.

---

## 5. Groundwater charge (SGMA) — OFFICIAL rates; RESEARCHED website claim

| Year | Rate | Authority |
| --- | --- | --- |
| FY2022–23, 2023–24 | up to **$15 / af** | Prop 218 Eng. Report Apr 2022; Res 2022-09 |
| FY2024–25, 2025–26 | **$20 / af** imposed | Res 2025-03 (FY25–26) |
| FY2026–27 | **$25 / af** imposed | **Resolution 2026-07** adopted **2026-06-29** (5–0) per June 29 meeting minutes |

**Who:** parcels **>5 acres** using groundwater for **non-residential** purposes (website + Eng. Report).

**How estimated:** County Assessor land-use code → estimated AF; appeal with metered data. Website example: Irrigated Vineyard → **2.0 af/ac** (**RESEARCHED** website example — not a parcel meter).

**Collection:** SJ County secured tax bill (or direct bill).

**ID surface-water incentive (CHANGED C6):** landowners who **join an improvement district** to use surface water obtain a **50% discount** on annual groundwater charges — sourced to the district **WEBSITE** → tag **RESEARCHED** (not OFFICIAL resolution). Confirm mechanics on tax bill / district letter. Do **not** weight equal to Res 2025-03 / Res 2026-07.

### 5.1 Sub-area GW exposure — two-sided range (CHANGED C2)

Assessor: **38.82 ac**, use code **420 IRRIGATED VINEYARD** (**OFFICIAL** GIS). Owner framing: planted almond/cherry + **13 ac unplanted** strip (**OWNER_STATED**).

**CHANGED C2 (v0.3) + RETIRED (v0.4):** The prior single point `2 af/ac × 38.82 × $25 ≈ $1,941/yr` was arithmetically fine but **categorically misapplied** (Assessor **VINEYARD** code on a non-vineyard mix). **v0.4: that $1,941 figure is RETIRED** — do not use it, do not average it with the billed charge, do not keep it as a live contrast row. Planning uses the two-sided sub-area range and/or UNKNOWN; the tax extract settles NSJWCD charge **presence** at **$776.40** only.

| Sub-area | Basis named | AF/ac basis | FY26–27 @ $25/af (illustrative) | Label |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Planted orchard acres (gross − 13) ≈ 25.82 ac | Assessor vineyard code is **wrong crop class**; cherry applied-water often **>** vineyard 2.0 | Range placeholder **2.0–3.5 af/ac** (literature screen only; not metered) | ≈ **$1,291 – $2,259 / yr** | **ASSUMPTION** range on wrong-code parcel; **UNKNOWN** true AF |
| Unplanted 13-ac strip | Minimal / establishment / cover — vineyard 2.0 is likely **HIGH** | Range placeholder **0–1.0 af/ac** until planted + metered | ≈ **$0 – $325 / yr** | **ASSUMPTION**; **UNKNOWN** until use |
| Whole-parcel vineyard code (historical misapplication) | Assessor 420 → website 2.0 af/ac | — | **RETIRED (v0.4)** — was ≈ $1,941/yr modelled; **do not use or average** | Replaced by billed NSJWCD **$776.40** for charge *presence* only (ID membership still UNKNOWN) |
| If 50% ID discount applies | Requires proven ID membership | half of roll | **UNKNOWN** | Membership **UNKNOWN** |

Prefer carrying GW exposure as **UNKNOWN pending clearer bill fields / owner PDF / metered appeal** when a downstream reader needs a single number. The two-sided range above is screening only.

### 5.2 Tax bill extract — charge presence settled; ID membership still UNKNOWN

Local extract: `sources/tax/SJ_TaxBill_06306032_FY2025-26_extract.json` (sha256 `c79a77f6ece32f8bd58f7ebb47d3473946b97b6e47925f5634b52f342a5d21a4`).

| Finding | Value | Implication |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Agency line | **NORTH SAN JOAQUIN WATER CONSER** | Truncated; phone 209-368-2101 matches NSJWCD |
| Amount FY2025–26 | **$776.40** | **Settles GW assessment charge *presence*** on this APN |
| Per-acre arithmetic | $776.40 / 38.82 ≈ **$20.00 / ac** | Consistent with FY25–26 GW **$20/af × 1.0 AF/ac-equivalent** whole-parcel — **not** proof of AF basis or crop class |
| Named ID3 / ID3A / ID3B assessment line | **None on extract** | ID membership remains **UNKNOWN** |
| Surface delivery / turnout / contract | **Not on bill extract** | Still **UNKNOWN** |

**Plain English for James:** the tax bill is useful — it proves NSJWCD is already charging this parcel a GW assessment line. It does **not** by itself prove ID3 membership or surface delivery. Clearer bill fields or an owner PDF that names ID membership would collapse items 1, 2, and 6.

---

## 6. Drought / cutback / availability rules

| Finding | Label | Source |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Permit 10477 supply **typically zero in dry years** | OFFICIAL | Surface Water Rules §II.5 |
| **2025:** no Permit 10477 irrigation water; WID purchase | OFFICIAL | Res 2025-04; Feb 2026 packet |
| **2026:** Permit 10477 water **available** (wet-year recital) | OFFICIAL | Res 2026-01 — **favorable tail**, not planning default |
| District **does not guarantee** annual surface supply | OFFICIAL | Rules + ID4 draft language |
| Class 1 ID priority shrinks non-ID access in short years | OFFICIAL | Rules §II.5 |

**Planning implication (CHANGED C3):** treat **well + SGMA charge** as the dry-year spine; **surface water = OPTIONAL_UPSIDE / interruptible opportunistic / in-lieu**, unless and until a signed delivery contract + multi-year delivery history says otherwise. Well GPM + WQ remain the binding unknowns on the 13 ac.

---

## 7. Parcel-specific open checklist (still UNKNOWN)

1. Clearer tax bill / owner PDF: ID membership fields (ID3 / ID3A / ID3B / none) — charge *presence* already settled at $776.40.  
2. Existing turnout / meter / Encroachment Permit.  
3. Whether Handel Lateral easement or ID3B petition includes this APN (neighbor 8400 is separate) — inclusion-probability **UNKNOWN**.  
4. Well GPM, depth, WQ (Na/Cl/B) — still U5; **binding** for establishment.  
5. CFS / AF scheduling history if any prior surface takes.  
6. Whether unplanted 13 ac can be mapped for GW-charge appeal vs whole-parcel vineyard code.

---

## 8. What this pack clears vs does not

**Cleared / upgraded**  
- How NSJWCD allocates surface water (Class 1/2, ID priority).  
- Published 2025–2026 surface rates; **planning default = non-ID $100** until ID proven.  
- Dry-year all-in as planning number; wet-year as favorable tail.  
- GW charge **presence** on FY25–26 tax bill ($776.40).  
- Handel Lateral / ID3B as **contingent liability**.  
- Explicit dry-year zero under Permit 10477; surface = **OPTIONAL_UPSIDE**.

**Does not clear**  
- ID membership / delivery eligibility / CFS for **this** APN.  
- Well GPM / WQ.  
- Variety / density / irrigation-system pick.  
- Plant authorization or capital.

---

## 9. Source index (local copies)

All under `sources/water/nsjwcd_ops/` unless noted. Plus:

| File | Role |
| --- | --- |
| `sources/tax/SJ_TaxBill_06306032_FY2025-26_extract.json` | FY25–26 secured bill extract — NSJWCD $776.40 line |
| Prior water PDFs/packets as in v0.2.1 §9 | Rates, rules, Handel Lateral, GW resolutions |

---

## 10. No recommendation

No variety, rootstock, training system, or plant/no-plant decision. Water gate remains: **document well and/or contracted surface delivery before planting capital**. REAL_CAPITAL=NOT_AUTHORIZED. NO_PLANT. NO_VARIETY_PICK.

---

## 11. Change log

| Date (PT) | Change |
| --- | --- |
| 2026-09-11 ~04:50 | v0.1 public ops pack |
| 2026-09-11 ~08:15 | v0.2: ID3B inconsistency; Res 2026-07 date; GW label tighten |
| 2026-09-11 ~10:00 | v0.2.1: Codex peer verify attach |
| 2026-09-22 ~8:25 PM | **v0.3:** Claude `4f530184` items 1–6 — non-ID $100 default; GW two-sided range + tax charge presence; surface OPTIONAL_UPSIDE; dry-year planning rate; Handel Lateral contingent liability; website→RESEARCHED. Codex `a4541e9f` provenance still owed (not discharged). |

---

## Magnitude yardstick (Claude 7c21ab90)

Claude `7c21ab90` accepted the RMSEz/NVA restatement and hash-verified the published docs. Pack edit (this republish):

- Strip relief stated to **2 dp: 0.54 m** (raw 0.5424 m).
- **Headline multiple:** ≈**2.76×** against QL1/QL2 **95% NVA** (≈0.196 m ≈ 1.96 × 0.1 m RMSEz).
- **Secondary:** ≈**5.4×** against ~0.1 m **RMSEz** (named explicitly so it is not read as the 95% figure).
- ~0.1 m remains a **spec ceiling**, not project-measured NVA (still UNKNOWN for rasterId 113219).
- Cell-size reasoning stays withdrawn. U6 still NARROWED not CLOSED. No plant / no variety / no capital.

Canonical numbers: `/docs/handel-strip-13ac-epqs-transect-v0-1.json` (`magnitude_yardstick`).