# HANDEL ROAD CHERRY — PLANT CHOICE PACK v0.1

**Version:** v0.1  
**Date:** 2026-09-24 ~5:50 PM PT  
**Hub job:** `bf383775-2919-4a3e-ad4b-40c9e106d5be`  
**Executor:** Grok  
**Idempotency:** `grok-handel-plant-choice-v0_1-20260924`  
**Status:** **PLANT** (owner-directed) · **BEST_OPTION = C3** (class-level) · production PASS still **0** under Phase2 audit rubric  
**Hard bans:** **NO asks to James** · **NO capital theater / invented spend** · REAL_CAPITAL remains owner-gated · Never `/james`

**Companion JSON:** `HANDEL_PLANT_CHOICE_v0_1.json`  
**Supersedes for plant disposition:** `HANDEL_DECISION_PACK_v0_3` HOLD (frost now OWNER_ACCEPTED; owner directed plant selection)

---

## Plain English (for James)

**Recommended option for the 13-ac strip toward E Handel Rd: C3 — low-/mod-chill early package (Coral-class framing), freestanding.**

You directed plant selection and accepted frost as residual (“part of the game”). Soils remain **CONFIRMED Kingdon + Tokay**; pits **OWNER_WAIVED**; water adequacy **OWNER_ASSERTED** (gate CLOSED). This pack picks the **best live system class** among C2 / C3 / C7 / C9 — not a named nursery clone and not an unqualified production PASS.

**Why C3 wins here:** (1) frozen cards already give C3 the strongest **regional chill-class fit** for Lodi (`PASS_REGIONAL_SCREEN` on F1 — ≠ parcel clearance); (2) existing planted **Chelan + Coral** give real packer / labor / phenology continuity on this APN (context, not automatic winner — decisive once frost is accepted and plant is directed); (3) the main soft demotion of C3 vs C2 was early-frost concentration — you accepted that residual; (4) freestanding conventional architecture matches the existing orchard style without jumping to C7 training/crew front-load.

**Runner-up: C2** — staggered CA commercial mix · Mazzard · freestanding — if you prefer broader harvest / rain risk spread rather than concentrating the early window.

**Honest audit:** under old Phase2 counting rules, **production PASS count is still 0**. Closing water + accepting frost does **not** auto-mint PASS (packer U7, labor U8, rain F2, rest-break design, etc. remain CONDITIONAL). Disposition is **owner override → plant-with-best-CONDITIONAL**, not a fabricated PASS.

**Capital:** you are selecting the plant option. This pack invents **no** spend amounts and does **not** authorize REAL_CAPITAL.

---

## Source ledger (reuse — do not invent)

| Pack | Role |
| --- | --- |
| `HANDEL_DECISION_PACK_v0_3` | Prior HOLD; water OWNER_ASSERTED; U4 waived; soils confirmed; frost NARROWED not waived |
| `PHASE2_CANDIDATE_SHORTLIST_v0_1_1` | Scoreboard counting rules; live ladder C2≥C3≥C7≥C9 |
| `CONDITIONAL_COMPARISON_CARDS_v0_1_2` | Class cards + archetypes + axis overlap (C7 can overlay C2/C3) |
| `CHILL_FROST_HEAT_LODI_v0_3` + strip EPQS transect | Chill/frost framing; DEM ~1.8 ft / ~0.55 m |
| `NSJWCD_OPERATIONAL_CONSTRAINTS_v0_4` | Water paper labels (non-gating under OWNER_ASSERTED) |
| `OWNER_SITE_FACTS_v0_4` / `PARCEL_LOCK_v0_1` | Site lock; Chelan+Coral planted |
| **2026-09-24 OWNER (parent-authoritative)** | Frost residual ACCEPTED (“part of the game”); plant selection directed for 13-ac strip |

---

## 1. Site lock (unchanged)

| Item | Value | Tag |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Address | **8650 E Handel Rd, Lodi, CA** | OWNER_STATED + OFFICIAL |
| APN | **063-060-32** | OFFICIAL |
| Gross parcel | **38.82 ac** | OWNER_STATED / OFFICIAL |
| Decision block | **13.00 ac** unplanted strip toward E Handel Rd | OWNER_STATED |
| Existing planted | **Chelan + Coral** (nearest **C3** framing — continuity context) | OWNER_STATED |
| Soils | **CONFIRMED Kingdon + Tokay** | OWNER + public SSURGO |
| Pits | **OWNER_WAIVED** → U4 dig-first **CLOSED** | OWNER |
| Water | **OWNER_ASSERTED** adequate / great access → gate **CLOSED** | OWNER |
| Frost U6 | DEM NARROWED (~1.8 ft / ~0.55 m); **OWNER_ACCEPTED residual** | OWNER + RESEARCHED DEM |
| District | **IN NSJWCD** | OFFICIAL GIS |
| Net plantable after setbacks | **UNKNOWN** | Do not equate 13 unplanted = 13 net |

---

## 2. What “best” means (this pack)

**Best** = the live production system **class** among **C2 / C3 / C7 / C9** that best fits **this strip** given:

1. Closed hard site gates (soils confirmed, pits waived, water OWNER_ASSERTED)  
2. Frost residual **OWNER_ACCEPTED** (do not hold plant on U6)  
3. Lodi / Handel regional chill + rain risk framing already in frozen packs  
4. Existing Chelan + Coral adjacency for packer / labor / ops continuity  
5. Evidence already in frozen materials — **class-level** pick; archetypes named only as already listed in `CONDITIONAL_COMPARISON_CARDS_v0_1_2` / Phase2 (not new cultivar claims)

**Not** claimed: unqualified Phase2 production PASS; named nursery clone / pollenizer proof; Dynamic CP parcel clearance; capital authorization; net plantable acres.

---

## 3. Ranking (live shortlist only)

| Rank | ID | Bundle (frozen) | Mark | Why this rank for THIS strip | Residual risks (accepted / open) |
| ---: | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| **1 (BEST)** | **C3** | Low-/mod-chill early package (Coral-class + pollenizers) · freestanding | **CONDITIONAL** | Strongest regional chill-class fit (`PASS_REGIONAL_SCREEN` F1 in cards); continuous with existing Chelan+Coral ops; early-frost demotion neutralized by OWNER_ACCEPTED frost | Early rain (F2); early frost residual (ACCEPTED); packer/channel (U7); labor peak (U8); chill proxy bias / TreeChill gap; pollenizer package not proven by chill class alone |
| **2** | **C2** | Staggered CA commercial mix · Mazzard · freestanding conventional | **CONDITIONAL** | Broadest harvest / rain risk-spread among freestanding timing mixes; can include Chelan-class early + Coral Champagne + mid placeholders from cards | Multi-window design complexity; F2 rain still real; F8 packer; F1 rest-break design; U6 residual ACCEPTED |
| **3** | **C7** | Krymsk 5/6 · Spanish bush / KGB · med density · **no full trellis** | **CONDITIONAL** | Architecture axis — **may overlay** C3 (or C2) scions later; not mutually exclusive | Training/crew (F6/U8); training-year cash (F7); rooting depth unlogged (waiver ≠ pit logs); capital path for higher tree count |
| **4** | **C9** | Self-fertile mid/late (Lapins/Sweetheart-class) · freestanding | **CONDITIONAL** | Weakest fit given existing early orchard + Lodi early-window framing; mid/late channel must be named | F8 mid/late channel weak; F2 cultivar×year; less continuity with Chelan+Coral |

**C12** remains process-only (defer) — **not** ranked for plant; owner directed plant, so C12 is not the choice.

**Deferred / not live:** C12 plant-defer; C4/C6/C8 hypotheses; C5 Mahaleb CONDITIONAL/INSUFFICIENT; C1/C10/C11 non-finalists.

---

## 4. BEST_OPTION detail — C3 (class-level)

| Field | Recommendation (class; not clone pick) |
| --- | --- |
| **System class** | **C3** — low-/mod-chill early package · freestanding |
| **Scion archetype (frozen cards only)** | Coral Champagne–**class** primary; Brooks- and/or Bing-**class** pollenizer framing as in `CONDITIONAL_COMPARISON_CARDS_v0_1_2` — **names = design placeholders, not bloom/pollen compatibility proof** |
| **Continuity note** | Existing on-parcel **Chelan + Coral** support ops familiarity; Chelan remains context / possible pollenizer-or-mix element per C2/C3 card placeholders — **not** a forced monoculture of either named clone |
| **Rootstock / architecture (default)** | Conventional **freestanding** (Mazzard **or** Krymsk 5/6 as card options) — **architecture not locked to C7** |
| **Optional later overlay** | C7 (Krymsk + Spanish bush/KGB, no full trellis) remains available as architecture if training/crew path is chosen later — does **not** replace C3 timing class |
| **Density** | Not newly claimed; nearest public cost proxy in packs is conventional ~134 tpa / 18×18 study class — **not** a 2026 bid |
| **Overall mark** | **CONDITIONAL** (honest) |

### Why not C2 as primary

C2 remains excellent risk-spread architecture and is the **runner-up**. With frost OWNER_ACCEPTED and an existing Chelan+Coral block already proving early/low-mod-chill commercial cherry on this APN, C3’s continuity + regional chill-class fit outrank C2’s stagger for **this** strip’s directed plant choice. Choose C2 instead only if the intentional strategy is **not** to concentrate the early window.

### Why not C7 as primary

C7 is an **architecture** axis that can combine with C3 scions. It adds training/crew and unlogged-depth residuals without improving the timing-class fit that dominates this decision. Keep as optional overlay, not the headline pick.

### Why not C9 as primary

Mid/late self-fertile class fights the existing early orchard continuity and Lodi early-premium framing already used in frozen materials; F8 mid/late channel is the weakest among finalists.

---

## 5. What changed vs HOLD v0.3

| Item | v0.3 HOLD | v0.1 PLANT CHOICE |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Disposition | **HOLD** / NO_PLANT | **PLANT** (owner-directed) |
| Frost U6 | NARROWED; James did **not** waive → soft residual blocking GO | Still NARROWED by DEM; now **OWNER_ACCEPTED residual** (“part of the game”) — **do not hold plant on frost** |
| Variety / system pick | Hard ban — none | **BEST_OPTION = C3** (class-level); runner-up C2 |
| Water | OWNER_ASSERTED / CLOSED | Unchanged CLOSED |
| Soils / pits | CONFIRMED / U4 CLOSED | Unchanged |
| Capital | OFF; no ask | Owner selecting plant option; **no invented spend**; REAL_CAPITAL still owner-gated |
| production PASS | **0** | Still **0** under Phase2 rubric |
| Asks to James | None | **None** |

---

## 6. PASS vs CONDITIONAL reconciliation (honest)

**Phase2 production PASS count = 0** (unchanged).

Closing water (v0.3) + OWNER_ACCEPTED frost (this pack) remove two former soft/hard blockers from the *decision tree*, but they do **not** satisfy remaining production criteria under Phase2 rules (notably F2 rain, F8 packer U7, F6/U8 labor, F1 rest-break / TreeChill design honesty, F7 bids). Therefore:

- **(a) Owner override to plant-with-best-CONDITIONAL** — **THIS IS THE PATH.** James directed plant selection and accepted frost residual; BEST_OPTION = C3 under CONDITIONAL marks.  
- **(b) Class now meets production PASS** — **NO.** Do not fake a PASS for C2/C3/C7/C9.

C12 process PASS remains process-only and is **not** plant permission (and is moot given owner-directed plant).

---

## 7. Residuals (marked — not asked)

| Residual | Status | Note |
| --- | --- | --- |
| U6 frost pocket | NARROWED + **OWNER_ACCEPTED** | Part of the game; optional field NVA/logger still useful, not a plant hold |
| F2 early rain | Open CONDITIONAL | Inherent to C3 early window; stagger (C2) is the mitigation alternative |
| U7 packer / grade / cool | UNKNOWN | Prefer continuity with existing Chelan+Coral path; not invented |
| U8 labor / FLC / H-2A | UNKNOWN | Early crush peak thesis remains |
| Paper ID / well GPM-WQ / surface | Non-gating labels | Under water OWNER_ASSERTED |
| Named clone + pollenizer proof | Not established | Class archetypes only |
| Capital / 2026 bids | Owner-gated | No spend invented here |
| Net plantable acres | UNKNOWN | Setbacks not surveyed in packs |

---

## 8. Capital note

Owner is **selecting the plant option**. This pack:

- Does **not** invent establishment $, royalty, trellis, cover, or insurance spend  
- Does **not** treat REAL_CAPITAL as authorized by the class pick alone  
- Points only to prior public cost **class** proxies already on disk (`ESTABLISHMENT_COST_PUBLIC_RANGES_*`) if peers need a dated study density — those are **not** 2026 Handel bids

---

## 9. Explicit non-claims (audit)

- No named nursery clone, rootstock SKU, spacing, or trellis recommendation beyond **C3 class + freestanding default** already in frozen cards.  
- No claim that CH catalog hours ≡ Dynamic CP.  
- No claim pollenizer/bloom compatibility from variety names alone.  
- Chelan+Coral planted ≠ automatic strip monoculture — continuity context for choosing C3 class.  
- OWNER_ACCEPTED frost ≠ frost-free; DEM NARROWED ≠ survey-closed U6.  
- Water OWNER_ASSERTED ≠ invented GPM / WQ / ID / CFS.  
- U4 waiver ≠ pit logs.  
- production PASS not fabricated.  
- No asks to James. Never `/james`.

---

## Artifact paths + hashes

Computed after write; see companion `.sha256` files and JSON `artifact_sha256_*` fields.

- MD: `/workspace/handel-road-cherry/HANDEL_PLANT_CHOICE_v0_1.md`  
- JSON: `/workspace/handel-road-cherry/HANDEL_PLANT_CHOICE_v0_1.json`  
- Hub docs (after publish): `/docs/handel-plant-choice-v0-1` · `/docs/handel-plant-choice-v0-1.json`