# HANDEL ROAD CHERRY — PLANT CHOICE PACK v0.2
## Rain / frost–driven variety package (anti-status-quo re-rank)

**Version:** v0.2  
**Date:** 2026-09-24 ~6:05 PM PT  
**Hub job:** `bf383775-2919-4a3e-ad4b-40c9e106d5be`  
**Executor:** Grok  
**Idempotency:** `grok-handel-plant-choice-v0_2-rain-frost-20260924`  
**Status:** **PLANT** (owner-directed) · **BEST_PACKAGE = C2 staggered · Chelan-class early lead** · production PASS still **0**  
**Label:** Anti-status-quo re-rank vs `handel-plant-choice-v0-1` — **continuity weight = 0**; rain + frost are the ranking drivers  
**Hard bans:** **NO asks to James** · **NO capital theater / invented spend** · Never `/james`

**Companion JSON:** `HANDEL_PLANT_CHOICE_v0_2.json`  
**Supersedes plant pick of:** `HANDEL_PLANT_CHOICE_v0_1` (C3 won largely on Chelan+Coral continuity — James correctly called that status-quo bias)

---

## Plain English (for James)

**Recommended plant package for the 13-ac strip: staggered CA commercial mix (C2-class) with Chelan-class as the early lead, Coral Champagne-class as companion, plus a mid Bing- and/or Rainier-class leg — Mazzard freestanding. Not a Coral-only / C3 early concentrate.**

You accepted frost as residual (“part of the game”) and asked for honesty when rain and frost are the two biggest damaging factors. This pack **still uses frost history to discriminate windows**, and it **zeros out** “match the existing Chelan+Coral block” as a ranking weight. Under those rules, **v0.1’s C3 pick loses**.

**Why this package:** NOAA Lodi (USC00045032, ~4.4 mi W, 1991–2020 normals) shows freeze and rain both ease as you move later in spring — but concentrating 100% of revenue in the early bloom/harvest band stacks the worst of both. A stagger splits bloom frost exposure and harvest-rain exposure across windows. Inside the early leg, frozen cards flag **Brooks as very crack-susceptible** and **Coral cracking ≈ Bing**, while **Chelan is often cited more crack-tolerant** — so Chelan-class leads the early slot; Coral is a companion, not the whole strip. Mid Bing/Rainier-class pushes some packout into May when station precip is lower.

**Runner-up:** mid/late self-fertile Lapins/Sweetheart-class (C9) if you deliberately abandon early-premium — better station frost+rain calendars, weaker named mid/late channel (F8).

**Honest limits:** class/archetype package from frozen cards — **not** a nursery SKU, bloom-compatibility proof, or Phase2 production PASS. Station ≠ strip. Parcel frost pocket still UNKNOWN. No invented spend.

---

## Source ledger (reuse — do not invent)

| Pack / file | Role |
| --- | --- |
| `CHILL_FROST_HEAT_LODI_v0_3` (+ v0.2.1) | Frost decision statistic P(≤28°F after bloom); joint bloom×frost; NOAA freeze tails; TreeChill/CP bias |
| `sources/climate/noaa_lodi_USC00045032_normals_1991_2020.json` | Monthly precip + Tmin occurrence; freeze PRBLST |
| `sources/climate/normals_monthly.json` | Days ≥0.10" / ≥0.25" precip |
| `SITE_CONSTRAINTS_v0_1` §1.2–1.3, §6 | Rain-at-harvest + frost volatility as first-class filters; fail sole early ultra-crack window |
| `SITE_COMPATIBLE_SHORTLIST_v0_1` / Phase2 v0.1.1 | C2/C3/C7/C9 cards; crack notes (Chelan / Coral / Brooks) |
| `CONDITIONAL_COMPARISON_CARDS_v0_1_2` | Named archetypes + F1/F2/F3 marks |
| SJ 2025–2026 media (Stocktonia / Ag Alert) | **RESEARCHED_MEDIA** early-heat → Apr–May rain/hail path — anecdotal F3, not hazard rate |
| OWNER 2026-09-24 | Frost residual ACCEPTED; plant directed; water OWNER_ASSERTED; soils confirmed; pits waived |

---

## 1. Site lock (unchanged)

| Item | Value | Tag |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Address / APN | **8650 E Handel Rd** / **063-060-32** | OWNER + OFFICIAL |
| Decision block | **13.00 ac** unplanted strip toward E Handel Rd | OWNER |
| Existing planted | Chelan + Coral — **footnote only; weight = 0 in this rank** | OWNER |
| Soils / pits / water | Kingdon+Tokay CONFIRMED; pits WAIVED; water OWNER_ASSERTED CLOSED | OWNER |
| Frost U6 | DEM NARROWED (~1.8 ft); **OWNER_ACCEPTED residual** — still used to discriminate windows below | OWNER + DEM |
| On-parcel station | **None** — all climate = **REGIONAL_PROXY** | UNKNOWN transfer |

---

## 2. Scoring rules (this pack — binding)

1. **Continuity weight = 0** (≤5% footnote). Existing Chelan+Coral does **not** drive rank.  
2. **Primary axes = rain damage risk + frost damage risk** (historical regional + simple forward projection). Secondary: chill-class fit, architecture front-load, packer channel *without* assuming “same as existing block,” option value.  
3. Frost OWNER_ACCEPTED ≠ ignore frost for ranking. Acceptance removes plant-hold; **history still discriminates varieties/windows**.  
4. Class-level + frozen archetypes only. No fake production PASS. No invented cultivars beyond cards.  
5. Prefer concrete primary cultivar archetype + pollenizer note when cards support it.

---

## 3. Historical rain + frost framing (REGIONAL_PROXY — NOAA LODI USC00045032)

### 3.1 Frost — last-freeze tails + monthly occurrence

Decision statistic (CHILL v0.3): **P(≤28°F AFTER bloom)** — not the 50% last-32°F headline (Feb 9).

| Threshold | Last-freeze 10% (later) | 50% | 90% |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| **28°F** | Feb 18 | Jan 12 | Dec 12 |
| **32°F** | **Mar 7** | Feb 9 | Jan 2 |
| **36°F** | **Apr 20** | Mar 11 | Feb 9 |

Monthly station occurrence (normals):

| Month | P(Tmin≤28°F occurs) | P(≤32°F) | P(≤36°F) | Avg days ≤32°F |
| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| Feb | ~18% | ~54% | ~86% | 2.6 |
| Mar | ~1.6% | ~15% | ~56% | 0.4 |
| Apr | ~0% | ~1% | ~19% | 0.1 |
| May | ~0% | ~2% | ~5% | 0.0 |
| Jun | ~0% | ~0% | ~2% | 0.0 |

**Window implication:** early bloom (late Feb–early Mar CA early cherries) sits in the **highest** post-bloom freeze-exposure band. Mid (mid–late Mar) better. Late (Apr bloom) best on frost. Full-bloom criticals ~28°F/25°F (WSU lineage) — not Lodi-calibrated. **Station ≠ strip**; pocket/drainage UNKNOWN.

### 3.2 Harvest rain / split risk

| Month | Precip normal (in) | Days ≥0.10" | Days ≥0.25" | Typical cherry role |
| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | --- |
| Apr | **1.53** | 3.8 | 2.3 | Early harvest / straw–color |
| May | **0.68** | 2.1 | 1.0 | Mid harvest |
| Jun | **0.18** | 0.6 | 0.1 | Late harvest |

**Window implication:** early-concentrated harvest is the **wettest** calendar band. Mid better. Late driest. SITE_CONSTRAINTS §1.3: concentrating 100% revenue in one early rain-exposed window is **structurally fragile** here.

### 3.3 Joint path (2025–2026 RESEARCHED_MEDIA — anecdotal)

SJ County path: early spring heat compressed bloom/harvest **into** April–May rain/hail → large county damage shares. Forward ASSUMPTION: heat years pull early packages deeper into the wet harvest band — **raises** early-concentrate rain risk under warming/volatility, directionally. Not a parcel hazard rate; not a PASS claim.

### 3.4 Forward projection (stated assumptions)

| Assumption | Treatment |
| --- | --- |
| Warming / declining chill (CHILL C7) | Historic Lodi West CP UPWARD-biased for 2026+; TreeChill air→tree gap same direction — prefer low-/mod-chill genetics for F1, but **secondary** to rain+frost here |
| Heat-compression years | Early packages more often land harvest in Apr–May rain — **raises** early rain score adverse |
| Parcel transfer | Station normals **do not** verify strip microclimate → mark strip frost/rain **UNKNOWN** for approval; still valid for **relative** window ranking |
| Frost OWNER_ACCEPTED | Residual kept; still discriminates early vs mid/late bloom |

---

## 4. Timing-window scores (rain + frost primary)

Scale 1–10 on **damage-risk aversion** (higher = better / safer). Continuity = 0.

| Window | Frost score | Rain/split score | Combined (0.5/0.5) | Notes |
| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | --- |
| **Early-concentrated (C3-like)** | **3** | **3** | **3.0** | Bloom in Feb–Mar tails; harvest in Apr wet band; heat years worsen rain |
| **Staggered early+mid (C2-like)** | **7** | **8** | **7.5** | Splits bloom frost + harvest rain; keeps some early premium option |
| **Mid/late (C9-like)** | **8** | **8** | **8.0** | Best calendars; loses early premium; F8 mid/late channel weak |

**Winning window on rain+frost alone:** mid/late slightly edges stagger on pure climate — but **stagger wins the plant decision** once early-premium option value and frozen F8 channel weakness for C9 are included (see §5). Early-concentrate **loses clearly**.

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## 5. Map window → variety / package (frozen archetypes only)

### BEST_PACKAGE (PRIMARY) — C2 staggered freestanding

| Field | Recommendation |
| --- | --- |
| **System class** | **C2** — Staggered CA commercial mix · Mazzard · freestanding conventional |
| **Primary early scion** | **Chelan-class** (lead) — cards cite often more crack-tolerant vs Brooks / Coral≈Bing (`SITE_COMPATIBLE_SHORTLIST_v0_1` C2 F2) |
| **Early companion** | **Coral Champagne-class** — low-/mod-chill early companion (~400 CH class notes); **not** sole-strip monoculture |
| **Mid leg** | **Bing- and/or Rainier-class** — pushes packout toward May lower-precip band |
| **Avoid as sole early** | **Brooks-only** — Phase2/C10 ultra-crack-sensitive FAIL pattern; Brooks only as pollenizer/mix element if bloom plan requires |
| **Pollenizer note** | Mapped pollenizer lattice required. Card placeholders: Brooks- and/or Bing-class pollenizers for Coral/Chelan packages (`CONDITIONAL_COMPARISON_CARDS_v0_1_2`). **Names ≠ bloom/pollen compatibility proof** |
| **Rootstock / architecture** | Mazzard · freestanding open / modified leader · density not newly claimed (~134 tpa public cost proxy only — not 2026 bid) |
| **Optional overlay** | C7 Krymsk + Spanish bush/KGB later — architecture axis; does not replace timing package |
| **Overall mark** | **CONDITIONAL** |

**Why this beats C3:** Under rain+frost weights with continuity = 0, C3’s early concentrate scores **3.0** vs stagger **7.5**. C3’s F1 `PASS_REGIONAL_SCREEN` chill fit is real but **does not outweigh** stacked early frost + early rain. v0.1 used continuity to tip C3 over C2 — that tip is removed. **C2 beats C3 under these weights.**

**Why Chelan-class lead (not Coral-only):** Rain is a co-primary damage factor; within early genetics already on the frozen cards, Chelan carries the stronger crack-tolerance citation. Coral remains in the package for chill-class / early-premium diversity — as **companion**, not rubber-stamp monoculture of what’s already in the ground.

### Runner-up — C9 mid/late self-fertile

| Field | Note |
| --- | --- |
| Class | Lapins and/or Sweetheart-class · freestanding |
| When to prefer | Deliberate abandon of early-premium; maximize frost+rain calendar safety |
| Why not primary | F8 mid/late channel must be named (weakest among finalists); forgoes early window option value that stagger preserves |

### Ranked list (this pack)

| Rank | ID | Package | Rain+frost role | Score summary |
| ---: | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| **1** | **C2** | Chelan-class lead + Coral-class + mid Bing/Rainier-class · Mazzard freestanding | Best balance: split risk + keep some early | Combined window **7.5** + option value |
| **2** | **C9** | Lapins/Sweetheart-class self-fertile freestanding | Best pure climate calendars | Combined **8.0** but F8 channel / no early option |
| **3** | **C3** | Coral-class early concentrate freestanding | Loses on stacked early frost+rain | Combined **3.0** — **lost vs v0.1** |
| **4** | **C7** | Krymsk · Spanish bush/KGB · med density | Architecture overlay only | Does not fix timing risk; training front-load |

**C12** process-only — not ranked for plant (owner directed plant).

---

## 6. Why C3 lost (explicit — James asked for honesty)

| v0.1 reason for C3 | v0.2 treatment |
| --- | --- |
| Continuity with planted Chelan+Coral | **Weight = 0** — footnote only |
| PASS_REGIONAL_SCREEN F1 chill | Kept as secondary plus; insufficient vs rain+frost |
| Early-frost demotion “neutralized” by OWNER_ACCEPTED | Acceptance ≠ ignore; frost history still **penalizes** early concentrate |
| Freestanding matches existing style | Not a rain/frost discriminator |

**Bottom line:** C3 lost because rain+frost historical + forward framing favor **not** putting the whole 13 ac on one early bloom/harvest spike. Stagger (C2) wins; C9 is the climate-max alternative if early premium is abandoned.

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## 7. PASS reconciliation (honest)

**production PASS count = 0** (unchanged under Phase2 rubric).

Path = **(a) owner override → plant-with-best-CONDITIONAL**. Path (b) class meets production PASS = **NO**. Residuals: F2 rain still real even under stagger; U7 packer UNKNOWN (do **not** assume existing-block channel); U8 labor; pollenizer design unproven; net plantable acres UNKNOWN; strip frost pocket UNKNOWN.

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## 8. Capital note

Owner selecting plant option. **No invented spend.** REAL_CAPITAL still owner-gated. Public cost class proxies on disk are not 2026 Handel bids.

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## 9. Explicit non-claims

- No nursery SKU, spacing, or royalty quote.  
- No CH ≡ Dynamic CP; no pollenizer proof from names.  
- Continuity ≠ ranking driver.  
- OWNER_ACCEPTED frost ≠ frost-free; station ≠ strip.  
- RESEARCHED_MEDIA 2025–2026 ≠ multi-year hazard rate.  
- production PASS not fabricated. No asks to James. Never `/james`.

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## Artifact paths

- MD: `/workspace/handel-road-cherry/HANDEL_PLANT_CHOICE_v0_2.md`  
- JSON: `/workspace/handel-road-cherry/HANDEL_PLANT_CHOICE_v0_2.json`  
- Hub docs (after publish): `/docs/handel-plant-choice-v0-2` · `/docs/handel-plant-choice-v0-2.json`