{ "pack": "HANDEL_PLANT_CHOICE", "version": "v0.3", "title": "owner_locks_bing_out_codex_evidence_label_cleanup_spacing_cost_insurance_foldin", "supersedes_plant_pick_of": "HANDEL_PLANT_CHOICE_v0_2", "date_pt": "2026-09-24 ~6:20 PM PT", "hub_job": "bf383775-2919-4a3e-ad4b-40c9e106d5be", "executor": "grok", "idempotency_key": "grok-handel-plant-choice-v0_3-bing-out-codex-labels-20260924", "status": "PLANT", "disposition": "PLANT", "recommended_package_id": "C2", "recommended_package_level": "concrete_package_frozen_archetypes_owner_locks", "best_option": "C2", "ranking_claim_strength": "STATED_WEIGHT_PREFERENCE_ORDER_ONLY; NOT_RISK_DOMINANCE; NOT_EMPIRICAL_SUPERIORITY", "codex_cleanup": { "evidence_ids": [ "00e97c77", "1ef8249d-9353-47c7-b4c4-d8986ffa2ba0", "codex-handel-v02-a79df007-review" ], "decision_carried": "CHANGES_REQUESTED_ON_EVIDENCE_LABELS_RESOLVED_IN_v0_3", "items": [ "preference_scores_labeled_not_calibrated_risk_probabilities", "climate_window_analysis_separated_from_plant_recommendation", "phenology_honest_harvest_stagger_ne_bloom_stagger", "chill_caveats_carried_dictionary_conflict_field_specific_PRBLST19_PRBOCC_Feb20_Mar21_Apr20_May19_Jun18_no_parcel_cp_correction" ], "metadata_bookkeeping": { "evidence_ids": [ "d34ef2ba-add3-4663-8c60-2ab2d4410441", "e160553c-ee11-493f-80e9-02a3946ceab3", "3529ea50-524d-4787-83b8-03ebe808e3d2" ], "decision": "FIELD_SPECIFIC_YEAR_COUNTS_AND_COMPANION_HASH_POINTER", "idempotency_key": "grok-handel-v03-metadata-yearcounts-sha-20260924-1827" } }, "recommended_package": { "system_class": "C2", "primary_early_scion": "Chelan-class", "early_companion": "Coral Champagne-class", "mid_leg": "Rainier-class", "bing": "OUT", "avoid_as_sole_early": "Brooks-only", "pollenizer_note": "Nursery confirm mapped lattice; Bing not used as pollenizer placeholder; names != bloom compatibility proof", "rootstock_architecture": "Mazzard freestanding conventional", "optional_overlay": "C7 Krymsk Spanish bush/KGB", "overall": "CONDITIONAL" }, "nursery_package": { "chelan_early_lead_pct": "40-45", "coral_champagne_companion_pct": "15-20", "rainier_mid_pct": "35-40", "bing_pct": 0, "rootstock": "Mazzard", "architecture": "freestanding", "pollen_lattice": "nursery_confirm", "shares_are": "planning_targets_not_purchase_order" }, "runner_up": "C9", "runner_up_detail": "Lapins/Sweetheart-class self-fertile freestanding \u2014 climate_only_winner under illustrative preference scores; F8 channel / early option are ASSUMPTIONS; U7 UNKNOWN", "c3_status": "LIVE_ALTERNATE_if_early_premium_weighted_harder", "continuity_weight": 0, "continuity_footnote": "Existing Chelan+Coral on APN noted only; not a ranking driver", "ranking_drivers": [ "harvest_rain_split_preference", "post_bloom_frost_timing_window_preference" ], "secondary_axes": [ "chill_class_fit", "architecture_front_load", "packer_channel_without_continuity_U7_UNKNOWN", "early_premium_option_value_ASSUMPTION" ], "frost_owner_accepted": true, "frost_still_discriminates_windows": true, "water_owner_asserted": true, "soils": "Kingdon+Tokay_CONFIRMED", "pits": "OWNER_WAIVED_U4_CLOSED", "bing_owner_lock": "OUT_dead_around_here", "capital_ask": false, "invented_spend_amounts": false, "real_capital": "OWNER_GATED_NOT_AUTHORIZED_BY_THIS_PACK", "never_james": true, "no_asks_to_james": true, "window_preference_scores": { "label": "ILLUSTRATIVE_preference_assumption_scores_NOT_calibrated_risk_probabilities", "not": [ "calibrated_damage_risk_probabilities", "cultivar_loss_probabilities", "empirical_superiority_proof" ], "data_to_score_rule": "NONE_reproducible", "early_concentrated_C3_like": { "frost": 3, "rain": 3, "combined": 3.0 }, "staggered_C2_like": { "frost": 7, "rain": 8, "combined": 7.5 }, "mid_late_C9_like": { "frost": 8, "rain": 8, "combined": 8.0 } }, "climate_only_winner_under_illustrative_scores": "mid_late_C9_like", "climate_only_winner_note": "C9 8.0 edges C2 7.5 on illustrative preference scores alone; SEPARATE from recommended_package", "recommended_package_note": "C2 under stated rain/frost preferences + early-premium option ASSUMPTION + F8 channel weakness ASSUMPTION; NOT risk-dominant", "phenology": { "harvest_stagger_verifies_bloom_stagger": false, "window_mappings": "ASSUMED", "observed_cultivar_bloom_date_distributions_in_packet": false, "owner_phenology_test_requested": false }, "treechill_policy": { "fifteen_percent_refers_to": "chill_accumulation", "not": "temperature_hours", "fixed_parcel_cp_subtraction": false, "claude_mandatory_subtraction": "WITHDRAWN", "decision": "RETAIN_REGIONAL_MECHANISM; NO_FIXED_PARCEL_CORRECTION" }, "chill_caveats_carried": [ "historic_CP_UPWARD_biased_is_projected_warming_scenario_NOT_established_parcel_correction", "NOAA_dictionary_conflict_unresolved_flag_dont_silently_pick", "NOAA_R_completeness_field_specific:PRBLST_annual_years=19;PRBOCC_monthly_years_Feb=20_Mar=21_Apr=20_May=19_Jun=18;R_is_completeness_class_not_universal_sample_count;do_not_copy_PRBLST_19_onto_monthly_fields" ], "ranking": [ { "rank": 1, "id": "C2", "role": "RECOMMENDED_PACKAGE", "why": [ "stated_weight_rain_frost_preference", "Chelan_crack_citation", "Rainier_mid_Bing_OUT", "splits_exposure_preference", "keeps_early_option_ASSUMPTION" ] }, { "rank": 2, "id": "C9", "role": "runner_up_and_climate_only_winner", "why": [ "best_illustrative_climate_preference_scores", "self_fertile", "F8_channel_ASSUMPTION_weak", "no_early_option" ] }, { "rank": 3, "id": "C3", "role": "live_alternate_early_premium", "why": [ "early_concentrate_preference_penalized_here", "continuity_weight_zeroed", "live_if_early_premium_weighted_harder" ] }, { "rank": 4, "id": "C7", "role": "optional_architecture_overlay", "why": [ "does_not_fix_timing_preference", "training_crew_front_load" ] } ], "spacing": { "default": "18x18_approx_134_tpa", "source": "UC_NSJV_2017_study_system", "label": "VERIFIED_study_assumption_REGIONAL_PROXY_density_class", "c2_band_tpa": [ 120, 180 ], "c7_med_hypothesis_tpa": [ 250, 350 ], "hd": "hypothesis_only_not_default" }, "costs": { "pointer_packs": [ "ESTABLISHMENT_COST_PUBLIC_RANGES_v0_2", "C7_VS_CONVENTIONAL_COST_BREAKEVEN_v0_1_1" ], "establishment_2017_usd_per_ac_at_134_tpa": 8688, "label": "REGIONAL_PROXY_not_2026_bids", "illustrative_13ac_scale_usd": 112944, "tree_delta_250_tpa_usd_per_ac": 788.8, "tree_delta_350_tpa_usd_per_ac": 1468.8, "capital_ask": false }, "insurance": { "pointer_pack": "CROP_INSURANCE_RESEARCH_v0_1", "program": "ARH_Sweet_Cherry_Pilot", "juvenile_multi_year_uninsurable_expectation": true, "before_reliance": "licensed_agent_and_AIB_Special_Provisions", "this_pack_assumes_coverage": false }, "pass_reconciliation": { "production_PASS_count": 0, "path": "a_owner_override_plant_with_best_CONDITIONAL", "path_b_class_meets_production_PASS": false }, "site_lock": { "address": "8650 E Handel Rd, Lodi, CA", "apn": "063-060-32", "acres_decision_strip": 13.0, "plant_directed": true, "soils": "CONFIRMED_Kingdon_Tokay", "pits": "OWNER_WAIVED_U4_CLOSED", "water_adequacy": "OWNER_ASSERTED_gate_CLOSED", "frost_u6": "NARROWED_OWNER_ACCEPTED_residual_still_discriminates", "bing": "OUT" }, "climate_evidence": { "station": "USC00045032 LODI", "distance": "~4.4 mi W", "normals": "1991-2020", "tag": "REGIONAL_PROXY_not_parcel", "codex_monthly_csv_sha256": "984301069686b3d79c0a535c5c3903c323e744c75e759ad24a6c4bd78f263bd4", "freeze_last_10pct": { "28F": "02/18", "32F": "03/07", "36F": "04/20" }, "monthly": { "04": { "prcp_in": 1.53, "days_ge_0_10in": 3.8, "days_ge_0_25in": 2.3 }, "05": { "prcp_in": 0.68, "days_ge_0_10in": 2.1, "days_ge_0_25in": 1.0 }, "06": { "prcp_in": 0.18, "days_ge_0_10in": 0.6, "days_ge_0_25in": 0.1 } }, "forward_assumptions": [ "warming_declining_chill_UPWARD_bias_historic_CP_is_projected_scenario_NOT_parcel_correction", "heat_compression_years_pull_early_harvest_into_Apr_May_rain", "station_to_strip_transfer_UNKNOWN" ], "noaa_year_counts": { "station": "USC00045032", "source": "NCEI normals-monthly 1991-2020", "R_means": "completeness_class_not_universal_sample_count", "PRBLST_annual_last_freeze_years": 19, "PRBLST_flag": "R", "PRBOCC_monthly_occurrence_years": { "Feb": 20, "Mar": 21, "Apr": 20, "May": 19, "Jun": 18 }, "PRBOCC_flag": "R", "evidence_ids": [ "3529ea50-524d-4787-83b8-03ebe808e3d2", "d34ef2ba-add3-4663-8c60-2ab2d4410441" ], "note": "Monthly occurrence is not probability of frost after a cultivar bloom; published 0.0 is not proof of no future hazard." } }, "peer_qualifications": [ { "idempotency_key": "codex-handel-v02-a79df007-review", "evidence": "00e97c77", "status": "CHANGES_APPLIED_IN_v0_3", "decision": "EVIDENCE_LABELS_AND_PHENOLOGY_CLEANED" }, { "idempotency_key": "codex-c2-risk-dominance-bound-20260924", "status": "PREFERENCE_FORK_SUPPORTED", "decision": "C2_RISK_DOMINANCE_NOT_ESTABLISHED", "presentation": "neutral_preference_fork_under_stated_weights" }, { "idempotency_key": "codex-treechill-abstract-units-20260924", "status": "CARRIED", "decision": "15_PERCENT_REFERS_TO_CHILL_ACCUMULATION; NO_PARCEL_ADJUSTMENT" }, { "idempotency_key": "codex-treechill-transfer-bound-20260924", "status": "RETAINED", "decision": "RETAIN_REGIONAL_MECHANISM; NO_FIXED_PARCEL_CORRECTION" }, { "idempotency_key": "codex-v03-wording-bump-3e1546df-verified", "evidence": "e160553c", "status": "CHILL_WORDING_ACCEPTED_METADATA_CORRECTION_APPLIED", "decision": "ACCEPT_CHILL_WORDING_DELTA; APPLY_d34ef2ba_YEAR_COUNTS_AND_COMPANION_SHA" } ], "packs_reused": [ "HANDEL_PLANT_CHOICE_v0_2", "CHILL_FROST_HEAT_LODI_v0_3", "noaa_lodi_USC00045032_normals_1991_2020", "SITE_CONSTRAINTS_v0_1", "SITE_COMPATIBLE_SHORTLIST_v0_1", "PHASE2_CANDIDATE_SHORTLIST_v0_1_1", "CONDITIONAL_COMPARISON_CARDS_v0_1_2", "ESTABLISHMENT_COST_PUBLIC_RANGES_v0_2", "C7_VS_CONVENTIONAL_COST_BREAKEVEN_v0_1_1", "CROP_INSURANCE_RESEARCH_v0_1" ], "artifact_sha256_md": "eaaeca02529528abb30031aaac5e00c3dd4b65b5d9c0dbcc8bf349cd6761a509", "codex_chill_wording": { "adopted_sentence": "Published orchard research supports possible air-versus-tree chill differences; the direction and magnitude at Handel remain unverified. No fixed correction, disqualification, or economics input follows.", "evidence_ids": [ "1f235427-378d-49aa-95ba-5814b33a07a7", "5e17d355-d045-4ba9-bc85-55a4c4a8cc36" ], "idempotency_key": "grok-handel-codex-chill-wording-20260924-1825" }, "prior_MD_hash": "3e1546df46d3b1722463f06d3d50f44e87391995b6dd7fb254f7dbb79870d0ec" }