# L1 Production Report — US Institutional Trust (L1-US-v0.1)

**Generated:** 2026-09-08 ~19:20 PT
**rule_id:** `L1-US-v0.1`
**concept_model_version:** 0.1
**measurement_spec_version:** 0.1
**Geography:** US only
**Canonical series:** individual polls (NES/Gallup/ABC/CBS/CNN/Pew); trust % = always + most of the time

## Authorization confirmation

- **L1 US:** production authorized under `L1-US-v0.1`.
- **All other constructs (L2–B3, E1a, couplings):** NOT authorized — scores remain UNKNOWN.
- **Structural Load / Resilience / Sync / Phase / Alert / PPS:** INSUFFICIENT DATA / UNKNOWN — **not** computed from L1 alone.
- **Velocity / Acceleration:** UNKNOWN (not frozen).
- **International:** thresholds US-only; not applied to other countries.
- **No interpolation; no carry-forward** of last observed as current-year measurement.
- OWID / Pew 3-survey MA kept as corroboration only — **not** raw for scoring.

## Annual L1 scores 2006–2025

| Year | Trust mean % | n_polls | min | max | disp | L1 | Label | coverage | freshness | overall_conf | single-org? |
|-----:|-------------:|--------:|----:|----:|-----:|---:|-------|---------:|----------:|-------------:|:-----------:|
| 2006 | 31.00 | 5 | 28 | 34 | 2.45 | 2 | modal_moderate_distrust | 1.00 | 0.20 | 0.72 | Y |
| 2007 | 27.50 | 2 | 24 | 31 | 4.95 | 3 | deep_distrust | 0.40 | 0.20 | 0.54 | Y |
| 2008 | 24.67 | 3 | 17 | 31 | 7.09 | 3 | deep_distrust | 0.60 | 0.20 | 0.65 | N |
| 2009 | 21.33 | 3 | 20 | 24 | 2.31 | 3 | deep_distrust | 0.60 | 0.20 | 0.60 | Y |
| 2010 | 22.00 | 10 | 18 | 26 | 2.91 | 3 | deep_distrust | 1.00 | 0.20 | 0.79 | N |
| 2011 | 18.60 | 5 | 10 | 29 | 7.02 | 4 | extreme_deficit | 1.00 | 0.20 | 0.72 | Y |
| 2012 | 22.00 | 1 | 22 | 22 | 0.00 | 3 | deep_distrust | 0.20 | 0.23 | 0.47 | Y |
| 2013 | 20.40 | 5 | 17 | 26 | 3.36 | 3 | deep_distrust | 1.00 | 0.26 | 0.73 | Y |
| 2014 | 19.00 | 2 | 14 | 24 | 7.07 | 4 | extreme_deficit | 0.40 | 0.29 | 0.56 | Y |
| 2015 | 19.00 | 1 | 19 | 19 | 0.00 | 4 | extreme_deficit | 0.20 | 0.32 | 0.49 | Y |
| 2016 | — | 0 | — | — | — | UNKNOWN | UNKNOWN | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — |
| 2017 | 19.00 | 2 | 18 | 20 | 1.41 | 4 | extreme_deficit | 0.40 | 0.38 | 0.57 | Y |
| 2018 | — | 0 | — | — | — | UNKNOWN | UNKNOWN | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — |
| 2019 | 17.00 | 1 | 17 | 17 | 0.00 | 4 | extreme_deficit | 0.20 | 0.44 | 0.52 | Y |
| 2020 | 23.50 | 2 | 20 | 27 | 4.95 | 3 | deep_distrust | 0.40 | 0.47 | 0.59 | Y |
| 2021 | 24.00 | 1 | 24 | 24 | 0.00 | 3 | deep_distrust | 0.20 | 0.55 | 0.55 | Y |
| 2022 | 20.00 | 1 | 20 | 20 | 0.00 | 3 | deep_distrust | 0.20 | 0.55 | 0.55 | Y |
| 2023 | 16.00 | 1 | 16 | 16 | 0.00 | 4 | extreme_deficit | 0.20 | 0.70 | 0.58 | Y |
| 2024 | 22.00 | 1 | 22 | 22 | 0.00 | 3 | deep_distrust | 0.20 | 0.70 | 0.58 | Y |
| 2025 | 17.00 | 2 | 17 | 17 | 0.00 | 4 | extreme_deficit | 0.40 | 0.85 | 0.69 | Y |

### Missing years (null / UNKNOWN; no carry-forward)

- Within 2006–2025: **[2016, 2018]**
- **2026:** no observations → UNKNOWN (dashboard may show LAST OBSERVED separately).

### Org / field-date detail (sample years)

- **2006:** orgs={'GALLUP': 1, 'CBS/NYT': 3, 'Pew Research Center': 1}; field_dates=['2006-01-06', '2006-01-20', '2006-02-05', '2006-09-15', '2006-10-08']; n=5
- **2010:** orgs={'GALLUP': 1, 'CBS/NYT': 4, 'CNN': 2, 'Pew Research Center': 3}; field_dates=['2010-01-10', '2010-02-05', '2010-02-12', '2010-03-21', '2010-04-05', '2010-04-05', '2010-09-01', '2010-09-06', '2010-10-01', '2010-10-21']; n=10
- **2015:** orgs={'Pew Research Center': 1}; field_dates=['2015-10-04']; n=1
- **2016:** no polls
- **2020:** orgs={'Pew Research Center': 2}; field_dates=['2020-04-12', '2020-08-02']; n=2
- **2025:** orgs={'Pew Research Center': 2}; field_dates=['2025-02-09', '2025-09-28']; n=2

## Confidence & freshness policy

Exposed separately on each L1 card: `data_coverage`, `source_quality`, `construct_validity`, `freshness`, `overall_confidence`.
Coverage ≠ confidence. System-level phase confidence remains **0** because dynamics are unauthorized.

## Audit example (2025)

```json
{
  "audit_type": "production_l1",
  "rule_id": "L1-US-v0.1",
  "feeds_constructs_status": true,
  "production_authorized": true,
  "path": {
    "reality": "US public trust in federal government (Washington)",
    "raw_sensors": "NES/Gallup/ABC/CBS/CNN/Pew individual polls",
    "transform": "arithmetic mean of individual_pct in calendar year (no MA, no interpolate)",
    "score": 4,
    "score_label": "extreme_deficit",
    "confidence": {
      "data_coverage": 0.4,
      "source_quality": 0.6,
      "construct_validity": 0.95,
      "freshness": 0.85,
      "overall_confidence": 0.69
    },
    "downstream": {
      "structural_load": "INSUFFICIENT DATA",
      "resilience": "UNKNOWN",
      "sync": "UNKNOWN",
      "phase": "INSUFFICIENT DATA",
      "alert": "INSUFFICIENT DATA",
      "pps": "UNKNOWN",
      "note": "Do NOT compute dynamics from L1 alone"
    },
    "observation_set_summary": {
      "year": 2025,
      "trust_mean": 17.0,
      "n_polls": 2,
      "orgs": {
        "Pew Research Center": 2
      },
      "field_dates": [
        "2025-02-09",
        "2025-09-28"
      ]
    }
  }
}
```

Full machine audit: `data/l1/production_audit_example.json`.
Annual machine scores: `data/l1/production_scores.json`.
Rule doc: `docs/l1/L1-US-v0.1.md`.

## Downstream gate

| Output | Status |
|--------|--------|
| L1 (US, year with polls) | SCORED 0–4 |
| L1 (missing year / non-US) | UNKNOWN |
| Other constructs | UNKNOWN |
| Load / Resilience / Sync | UNKNOWN / null |
| Phase / Alert | INSUFFICIENT DATA |
| PPS | UNKNOWN |