{
  "job": "lane-L3-e3-elite-defection-velocity",
  "draft_version": "v0",
  "unit_of_analysis": "elite_actor_event",
  "elite_universe_options": [
    "US_federal_legislators_sitting",
    "US_federal_legislators_plus_ex_members_10y",
    "US_statewide_elected_executives",
    "US_federal_executive_senate_confirmed",
    "state_legislators_optional_extend"
  ],
  "recommended_pilot_universe": "US_federal_legislators_sitting",
  "event_types": [
    {
      "type_id": "party_switching",
      "definition": "Sitting elite changes formal party affiliation from party A to party B (or to/from independent with clear prior party).",
      "include_examples": [
        "House member switches D\u2192R while seated"
      ],
      "exclude_examples": [
        "party rebrand of entire party",
        "primary challenger never seated"
      ],
      "date_rule": "public announcement date; if missing, first contemporaneous reliable report",
      "ai_need": "LOW-MED with structured party codes"
    },
    {
      "type_id": "conflict_resignation",
      "definition": "Resignation from office/caucus leadership explicitly tied to conflict with party/leadership/coalition (not ordinary retirement).",
      "include_examples": [
        "resigns citing party direction"
      ],
      "exclude_examples": [
        "retires for health without conflict cue",
        "loses primary"
      ],
      "date_rule": "resignation effective or announcement (predeclare one)",
      "ai_need": "HIGH"
    },
    {
      "type_id": "cross_party_endorsement",
      "definition": "Elite publicly endorses opposite-party candidate for office.",
      "include_examples": [
        "sitting R endorses D presidential nominee"
      ],
      "exclude_examples": [
        "same-party primary endorsement",
        "media pundit"
      ],
      "date_rule": "endorsement announcement",
      "ai_need": "HIGH"
    },
    {
      "type_id": "same_side_repudiation",
      "definition": "Elite publicly repudiates own-party nominee/leader while remaining in party (no formal switch).",
      "include_examples": [
        "never-Trump sitting member repudiation"
      ],
      "exclude_examples": [
        "policy disagreement without repudiation of side"
      ],
      "date_rule": "repudiation statement date",
      "ai_need": "HIGH"
    },
    {
      "type_id": "coalition_abandonment",
      "definition": "Public break from party coalition on a predeclared defining institutional vote/pact (not ordinary dissent).",
      "include_examples": [
        "predeclared defining whip break with public defection framing"
      ],
      "exclude_examples": [
        "routine party-unity <100%"
      ],
      "date_rule": "vote/announcement date",
      "ai_need": "HIGH; requires predeclared defining set"
    },
    {
      "type_id": "institutional_defection",
      "definition": "Defection from institutional role expectations toward own coalition (e.g., committee boycott organized as partisan break).",
      "include_examples": [
        "organized committee boycott framed as break"
      ],
      "exclude_examples": [
        "absences"
      ],
      "date_rule": "first public act",
      "ai_need": "HIGH"
    },
    {
      "type_id": "refusal_to_support_certify_participate",
      "definition": "Refusal to support/certify/participate in a core institutional process against prior same-side expectation.",
      "include_examples": [
        "electoral count objection as defection signal when construct-valid under predeclared rule"
      ],
      "exclude_examples": [
        "routine procedural nay"
      ],
      "date_rule": "act date",
      "ai_need": "MED-HIGH; prefer rules-based floor coding"
    },
    {
      "type_id": "prosecutor_judicial_executive_protest",
      "definition": "Prosecutor/judicial/executive resignation or public break with explicit protest/defection rationale.",
      "include_examples": [
        "cabinet resignation in protest"
      ],
      "exclude_examples": [
        "forced removal without protest",
        "ordinary end of term"
      ],
      "date_rule": "announcement",
      "ai_need": "HIGH"
    }
  ],
  "velocity_definition_draft": {
    "level_forbidden": "Do not use stock elite division, polarization distance, FSI FE, or unity % as E3.",
    "velocity_candidate": "v(t) = count(events in window t)/exposure(elites in universe at t), windows monthly|quarterly|congress.",
    "exposure_note": "Must normalize by number of sitting elites or person-time to avoid composition artifacts."
  },
  "monthly_quarterly_feasibility": {
    "monthly": "POOR for federal party_switching alone (often 0 events/month for years). Only viable if (a) broad event ontology OR (b) state legislatures included OR (c) endorsement/repudiation types in campaign seasons \u2014 all raise FP risk.",
    "quarterly": "MARGINAL for federal core types; zeros still common. Better as presence/absence + rare-event models than smooth rates.",
    "congress_or_annual": "FEASIBLE for structured party_switching backbone; insufficient for 'velocity early-warning' narrative without broader ontology.",
    "verdict_on_rates": "Honest E3 rate series at monthly cadence is NOT currently feasible for narrow federal party switches; quarterly only with expanded ontology + heavy validation."
  }
}