# L3 — Ontology feasibility verdict (no score)

**Job:** `lane-L3-e3-elite-defection-velocity`  
**Question answered:** Is an E3 **event ontology** feasible enough to KEEP as a research candidate?  
**Not answered:** Any E3 numeric score, threshold, or predictive claim.

## Dispositions (ontology feasibility only)

| Element | Disposition | Rationale |
|---------|-------------|-----------|
| Core type `party_switching` + SF1/SF2 structured backbone | **KEEP_CANDIDATE** | Clear construct; structured lineage; separable from level substitutes |
| Types `conflict_resignation`, `cross_party_endorsement`, `same_side_repudiation` | **MODIFY** | Construct-valid but need frozen coding dictionaries + dual human validation before rate use |
| `coalition_abandonment` via party-unity or raw dissent | **INSUFFICIENT** as-is | Collapses to LEVEL cohesion / ordinary dissent unless defining-vote set predeclared independently |
| `refusal_to_support_certify_participate` (rules-based floor subset) | **MODIFY** | Feasible for narrow Record-coded acts; overbroad AI labeling insufficient |
| `prosecutor_judicial_executive_protest` | **MODIFY** | Episode-valid; panel density insufficient for monthly/quarterly rates alone |
| Monthly federal defection **rate series** claim | **INSUFFICIENT** | Structural rarity → dishonest continuous velocity |
| Quarterly expanded-ontology rate series | **MODIFY** | Possible research series with zero-inflation + validation gates; not score-ready |
| FSI / polarization / turnover substitutes | **INSUFFICIENT** (rejected) | Forbidden by lane brief |

## Path summary

**KEEP_CANDIDATE** for a **narrow structured party-switching ontology** (Congress/annual exposure-normalized counts) plus a **MODIFY** track for broader event types.  
**INSUFFICIENT** for honest **monthly** E3 velocity scoring or any substitute-index path.

MODEL_CHANGE=NO. No E3 score authorized.