{ "job": "lane-L5-recovery-data-search", "model_change": false, "no_recovery_scoring": true, "do_not_rescue_exp002": true, "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-10T15:09:09.590567+00:00", "concepts_in_scope_metadata_only": [ "half_life", "elasticity", "baseline_displacement", "damping", "persistence" ], "series": [ { "family_id": "RC1_consumer_sentiment_michigan_sca", "family": "consumer_sentiment", "series_name": "Michigan SCA Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) monthly aggregate", "source": "University of Michigan SCA tbmics / FRED UMCSENT mirror", "frequency": "monthly", "coverage_start": "1952-11", "coverage_end": "2026-08 (local extract)", "approx_obs": "676 monthly rows local", "missingness": "Early 1950s\u20131970s incomplete months common; near-complete monthly from late 1970s", "methodology_breaks": "In-person\u2192phone; 2024 phone\u2192web transition", "pollster_composition": "Single primary producer (UMich); FRED mirror secondary", "pit_availability": "Month stamp; public aggregate lag ~2\u20134 weeks typical", "shock_detectability": "HIGH for macro/societal shocks visible in sentiment (recessions, acute crises)", "recovery_observability": "HIGH \u2014 classic half-life/elasticity candidate on monthly grid", "min_realistic_episode_count": "Likely O(10+) post-1978 if shock rule predeclared; UNKNOWN until rule freeze (do not score)", "exp002_relation": "NOT an Exp002 rescue; parallel density candidate in different family", "disposition_density": "STRONG_CANDIDATE_FOR_RECOVERY_CONCEPTS", "notes": "Local file data/raw/michigan_sca/tbmics.csv confirms depth. Components (PAGO/PEXP) also monthly." }, { "family_id": "RC2_consumer_sentiment_conference_board", "family": "consumer_sentiment", "series_name": "Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index", "source": "Conference Board (proprietary; press releases / licensed)", "frequency": "monthly", "coverage_start": "~1967", "coverage_end": "present", "approx_obs": "~700 months if licensed", "missingness": "Generally continuous modern era; access/licensing is the binding constraint", "methodology_breaks": "Survey vendor/mode updates over long span", "pollster_composition": "Single producer", "pit_availability": "Monthly release calendar; revisions possible", "shock_detectability": "HIGH", "recovery_observability": "HIGH if access obtained", "min_realistic_episode_count": "Similar order to SCA if same shock ontology", "exp002_relation": "Independent family from L1 trust", "disposition_density": "STRONG_IF_ACCESSIBLE", "notes": "Use as cross-method corroboration vs SCA \u2014 not mashup score." }, { "family_id": "RC3_economic_expectations_sca_components", "family": "economic_expectations", "series_name": "SCA PEXP / PAGO / ICS components + ICE", "source": "Michigan SCA tables 5/6/8; local CSV extracts", "frequency": "monthly (some quarterly tables exist)", "coverage_start": "1950s\u20131960s depending on series", "coverage_end": "present", "approx_obs": "hundreds of months", "missingness": "Component-specific early gaps", "methodology_breaks": "Same SCA mode breaks as ICS", "pollster_composition": "UMich", "pit_availability": "Monthly", "shock_detectability": "HIGH for expectation shocks", "recovery_observability": "HIGH \u2014 expectations often sharper than trust", "min_realistic_episode_count": "O(10+) plausible under monthly cadence", "exp002_relation": "Supports recovery concepts without touching Exp002 L1 protocol", "disposition_density": "STRONG_CANDIDATE_FOR_RECOVERY_CONCEPTS", "notes": "Aligns with L2/L6 density leads; still no PRD hypothesis tests here." }, { "family_id": "RC4_economic_expectations_sce", "family": "economic_expectations", "series_name": "NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE)", "source": "FRBNY SCE", "frequency": "monthly panel", "coverage_start": "2013", "coverage_end": "present", "approx_obs": "~150+ months", "missingness": "Short window vs SCA", "methodology_breaks": "Internet panel design relatively stable; COVID-era interpretation caution", "pollster_composition": "Single producer", "pit_availability": "Monthly micro/public tables", "shock_detectability": "MED-HIGH within 2013\u2013present only", "recovery_observability": "MED \u2014 good within-window, few historical episodes", "min_realistic_episode_count": "Likely <10 major episodes in window", "exp002_relation": "None", "disposition_density": "MODERATE_SHORT_PANEL", "notes": "Better for mechanism/micro than long recovery half-life history." }, { "family_id": "RC5_institutional_trust_l1_individual", "family": "institutional_trust_approval", "series_name": "Pew/NES/Gallup/ABC/CBS/CNN public trust in government individual polls", "source": "Pew compiled table; local data/raw/l1", "frequency": "irregular (annualized gaps)", "coverage_start": "1958", "coverage_end": "2025", "approx_obs": "163 polls; 53 calendar years with \u22651 poll", "missingness": "15/68 years without polls in production years_with_polls framing; multi-month/year gaps incl. recent midterms", "methodology_breaks": "Heavy pollster/mode mix; individual vs smoothed critical", "pollster_composition": "Multi-house (NES/Gallup/ABC/CBS/CNN/Pew)", "pit_availability": "Field dates on individual polls (good PIT) but sparse", "shock_detectability": "MED \u2014 shocks visible only if a poll falls nearby", "recovery_observability": "LOW-MED \u2014 Exp002 insufficiency lesson: interval censoring + sparse cadence limits honest half-life", "min_realistic_episode_count": "LOW under strict cadence gates (Exp002 path CLOSED insufficient \u2014 do not rescue)", "exp002_relation": "PRIMARY cautionary tale; L5 must NOT reopen Exp002 compute", "disposition_density": "WEAK_FOR_RECOVERY_HALF_LIFE", "notes": "Keep as LEVEL institutional trust (L1 live). Poor recovery-elasticity grid." }, { "family_id": "RC6_political_approval_gallup_hist", "family": "political_approval", "series_name": "Gallup presidential job approval (historical)", "source": "Gallup; UCSB American Presidency Project compilations", "frequency": "irregular multiday historically; daily tracking 2009\u20132017; weekly 2018; return to discrete 2019\u20132025", "coverage_start": "1938/1945-class series", "coverage_end": "present (methodology eras differ)", "approx_obs": "Thousands of poll points across eras; cadence NOT stationary", "missingness": "Pre-tracking eras irregular; post-2019 discrete again", "methodology_breaks": "MAJOR: face-to-face\u2192phone; cellphone; daily tracking on/off; 2017 weekly replacement of 3-day averages", "pollster_composition": "Gallup primary historically; post-Gallup-pause multi-house averages elsewhere", "pit_availability": "Field windows known for Gallup; averages need as-of rules", "shock_detectability": "HIGH in daily-tracking era; MED in discrete eras", "recovery_observability": "HIGH within homogeneous methodology eras; LOW if eras spliced naively", "min_realistic_episode_count": "O(10+) within 1938\u2013present if era-stratified; fewer inside a single method era", "exp002_relation": "Better density than L1 trust for recovery concepts IF methodology eras are stratified", "disposition_density": "STRONG_WITHIN_ERA_STRATA", "notes": "Do not splice daily-tracking and discrete eras without explicit break model." }, { "family_id": "RC7_political_approval_aggregators", "family": "political_approval", "series_name": "Silver Bulletin / FiveThirtyEight-style approval averages", "source": "Nate Silver Bulletin (successor methods); historical 538 archives fragile", "frequency": "effectively daily average of multi-house polls", "coverage_start": "modern aggregator era (~2008+/Trump-era dense)", "coverage_end": "present", "approx_obs": "Daily estimates over ~1\u20132 decades depending on series", "missingness": "Depends on underlying poll flow", "methodology_breaks": "Model revisions; house-effect adjustments; pollster inclusion rules", "pollster_composition": "Multi-house weighted", "pit_availability": "As-of averages require snapshot discipline (revision risk)", "shock_detectability": "HIGH", "recovery_observability": "HIGH for recent shocks; limited deep history", "min_realistic_episode_count": "Few major presidential-term shocks per decade", "exp002_relation": "Alternative to sparse trust for recent recovery phenomenology", "disposition_density": "STRONG_RECENT_ONLY", "notes": "Treat model output as constructed sensor \u2014 document version pins." }, { "family_id": "RC8_congress_generic_ballot", "family": "political_approval", "series_name": "Generic congressional ballot polling averages", "source": "RealClearPolitics / Silver Bulletin / historical poll archives", "frequency": "irregular polls \u2192 near-daily averages in campaign years", "coverage_start": "1990s\u2013present denser", "coverage_end": "present", "approx_obs": "dense near elections; thinner off-years", "missingness": "Off-year sparsity", "methodology_breaks": "RV vs LV frames; house effects", "pollster_composition": "Multi-house", "pit_availability": "Field dates + average as-of", "shock_detectability": "MED-HIGH near campaigns", "recovery_observability": "MED \u2014 seasonality/campaign phase confounds recovery", "min_realistic_episode_count": "Low if restricted to off-year windows", "exp002_relation": "None", "disposition_density": "MODERATE_SEASONAL", "notes": "Recovery concepts need phase controls or off-cycle only." }, { "family_id": "RC9_protest_event_acled", "family": "protest_event_activity", "series_name": "ACLED US political violence / demonstration events", "source": "ACLED (access governed)", "frequency": "daily event", "coverage_start": "US coverage modern (ACLED US expansion ~2020 emphasis; check license window)", "coverage_end": "present", "approx_obs": "High event counts daily when accessible", "missingness": "Spatial/reporting bias; category revisions", "methodology_breaks": "Codebook updates; source journalism dependence", "pollster_composition": "n/a (event coder)", "pit_availability": "Event dates; publication lag", "shock_detectability": "HIGH for protest waves", "recovery_observability": "HIGH for damping/persistence of event counts; NOT the same as attitude recovery", "min_realistic_episode_count": "Multiple waves possible in short window", "exp002_relation": "Different construct family than trust recovery", "disposition_density": "STRONG_FOR_EVENT_DAMPING", "notes": "Local probe stubs under data/raw/acled; full pull may be access-gated." }, { "family_id": "RC10_protest_event_gdelt", "family": "protest_event_activity", "series_name": "GDELT event / tone counts", "source": "GDELT 2.0", "frequency": "15-min / daily aggregates", "coverage_start": "1979 (1.0) / 2015 (2.0 denser)", "coverage_end": "present", "approx_obs": "Very high frequency", "missingness": "Media-selection bias; language/source shifts", "methodology_breaks": "GDELT 1\u21922; source universe drift", "pollster_composition": "n/a", "pit_availability": "Good timestamps; unstable semantics", "shock_detectability": "HIGH raw; MED construct validity", "recovery_observability": "HIGH numerically; interpretation fragile", "min_realistic_episode_count": "Many \u2014 but construct validity gate before counting", "exp002_relation": "None", "disposition_density": "MODIFY_NEEDS_CONSTRUCT_LOCK", "notes": "Useful narrative/media pressure proxy only after event taxonomy freeze." }, { "family_id": "RC11_media_narrative_tone", "family": "media_narrative", "series_name": "Major-outlet tone / topic prevalence (NYT/GDELT/Media Cloud class)", "source": "Media Cloud / GDELT tone / academic news corpora", "frequency": "daily", "coverage_start": "varies (often 1980s\u20132010s+)", "coverage_end": "present", "approx_obs": "daily", "missingness": "Paywall/corpus gaps; outlet mix changes", "methodology_breaks": "OCR/digitization; API schema changes", "pollster_composition": "n/a", "pit_availability": "Article dates", "shock_detectability": "HIGH for narrative shocks", "recovery_observability": "HIGH for narrative half-life; may not match public attitude recovery", "min_realistic_episode_count": "Many topical episodes", "exp002_relation": "Not Exp002", "disposition_density": "MODERATE_CROSS_LAYER", "notes": "Keep separate from mass attitude recovery estimands." }, { "family_id": "RC12_other_hf_societal_vix_markets", "family": "other_high_frequency", "series_name": "VIX / financial stress (market)", "source": "CBOE VIX / FRED", "frequency": "daily", "coverage_start": "1990 (VIX)", "coverage_end": "present", "approx_obs": "~8000+ daily", "missingness": "Low", "methodology_breaks": "VIX methodology notes; not a public-opinion series", "pollster_composition": "n/a", "pit_availability": "Excellent", "shock_detectability": "HIGH", "recovery_observability": "HIGH mathematically", "min_realistic_episode_count": "Many", "exp002_relation": "Wrong layer for societal recovery unless explicitly cross-layer", "disposition_density": "STRONG_BUT_CROSS_LAYER", "notes": "Eligible only as external market damping benchmark \u2014 not societal attitude recovery." }, { "family_id": "RC13_other_google_trends", "family": "other_high_frequency", "series_name": "Google Trends issue attention", "source": "Google Trends", "frequency": "daily/weekly", "coverage_start": "2004", "coverage_end": "present", "approx_obs": "~20y", "missingness": "Normalization artifacts; query choice fragility", "methodology_breaks": "API sampling; category changes", "pollster_composition": "n/a", "pit_availability": "Partial (relative indices, not absolute)", "shock_detectability": "HIGH for attention shocks", "recovery_observability": "MED \u2014 attention \u2260 preference recovery", "min_realistic_episode_count": "Many topical", "exp002_relation": "None", "disposition_density": "MODIFY_ATTENTION_ONLY", "notes": "Good for attention half-life; do not equate to trust recovery." }, { "family_id": "RC14_anes_affective", "family": "institutional_trust_approval", "series_name": "ANES feeling thermometers / trust items", "source": "ANES CDF", "frequency": "election-year (some midterms)", "coverage_start": "~1978/1980 diagnostic window in local extracts", "coverage_end": "2024", "approx_obs": "~17\u201318 study years in local S1 diagnostics", "missingness": "Multi-year gaps; not monthly", "methodology_breaks": "Mode/weight changes across studies", "pollster_composition": "ANES", "pit_availability": "Study year", "shock_detectability": "LOW for intra-year shocks", "recovery_observability": "INSUFFICIENT for half-life/elasticity", "min_realistic_episode_count": "Too few time points", "exp002_relation": "Do not reopen S1 exploratory scoring", "disposition_density": "INSUFFICIENT_FOR_RECOVERY_GRID", "notes": "Parked for recovery concepts; remains relevant to other lanes only as metadata." } ] }