# L6 Closure — GREEN candidates assessment v0.1 (Workstream C)

**STATUS:** L6_WORKSTREAM_C_COMPLETE  
**DECISION:** `NO_GREEN_DYNAMIC_DATASET`  
**GREEN list:** *(empty — 0 ≤ 3)*  
**MODEL_CHANGE:** NO · **SCORING_CHANGE:** NO · **OUTCOME_ACCESS:** PROHIBITED  
**Sealed historical challenge:** PARKED / READY_WAITING_FOR_MODEL (untouched)

| Ref | ID |
|-----|-----|
| James | `5baebbdc-5e60-4a6f-a1f2-92f7fb021f83` |
| Hub ACK | `986d241c-1e18-48ff-a21a-2e44907e3ecd` |
| Hub job | `b73c292a-16e2-4f11-9370-1337d0239791` |
| Research job | `lane-L6-propagation-data-density-matrix` |
| Companion JSON | `docs/lane6/L6_CLOSURE_GREEN_CANDIDATES_v0_1.json` |
| Companion JSON sha256 | `511b21d3b9de54779bb69047ac49d4257db3b0287ab968a9f8c878c957640071` |
| Generated | 2026-09-10 02:47 PM PT (2026-09-10T21:47:09Z UTC) |

## Declared GREEN gates (ALL required — no relaxation)

1. **actual construct observations** — acquired local construct series, not documentation calendar span alone  
2. **actual common timestamps** — exact joint observation stamps (not SCOUTING_ONLY calendar overlap)  
3. **strict contiguous runs** — gap-audited longest complete run on the analysis window  
4. **calendar-defined lag pairs** — per-lag complete pair counts exiting `observation_coverage_status=UNKNOWN`  
5. **publication availability** — release/publication timestamps distinct from field dates for PIT  
6. **method breaks** — documented era/mode boundaries  
7. **independent source lineage** — cross-system tests cannot rely on same-family series as independence  

Forbidden for this adjudication: interpolation, gate relaxation, ranking by theoretical attractiveness, correlations/scores, Exp002 rescue, 583-month Michigan arithmetic rerun.

## Decision

**`NO_GREEN_DYNAMIC_DATASET`**

No candidate simultaneously clears all seven gates at a standard capable of supporting a serious sealed-historical test of persistence / recovery / propagation / damping / or another clearly defined dynamic system property.

The empty GREEN list is an affirmative sufficiency finding, not an incomplete search.

## Prior candidates — reasons (NOT_GREEN)

### 1. OPP1 — SCA × BLS (mass monthly)
- BLS local timestamps **unacquired** (`documentation_only_local_raw_empty`).  
- Calendar-span 75y is **SCOUTING_ONLY**; no actual common YYYY-MM intersection with BLS.  
- Publication/ALFRED vintages absent.  
→ Fails actual common timestamps, lag pairs, publication availability.

### 2. Michigan ICS × PAGO × PEXP (same-family) — density near-miss
- **Proven (do not rerun):** exact ICS∩PAGO∩PEXP = **583** months, `n_gaps=0`, longest complete run 583 (1978-01→2026-07).  
- **Fails independent source lineage:** all `source_family=michigan_sca`; Astra: cross-system independence not established from same-family series.  
- **Fails publication availability:** `publication_timestamps=UNKNOWN` (field ≠ release preserved).  
- **Fails calendar-defined lag pairs under declared policy:** contiguous run ≠ accepted per-lag/holdout coverage ledger; `observation_coverage_status` remains UNKNOWN for lag/rolling/holdout.  
→ NOT_GREEN despite strongest density evidence in L6.

### 3. OPP2 — L1 trust × SCA
- Trust `years_with_polls=53` ≠ 68 calendar; gaps (e.g. 2016, 2018).  
- Annualize SCA = proposed only.  
→ Fails common timestamps / contiguous / lag pairs.

### 4. OPP3 — L1 trust × BLS
- Same trust irregularity + BLS unacquired.  
→ NOT_GREEN.

### 5. OPP4 — VoteView N3 × CBS N4
- 21 **congress_periods** (not years); publication/release UNKNOWN.  
- N1/N3 shared VoteView upstream flagged.  
→ Fails publication availability + lag/PIT feasibility.

### 6. OPP5 — ANES × elite congress
- ANES meta-only; nearest-neighbor alignment **PROPOSED_ONLY**.  
→ NOT_GREEN.

### 7. OPP6 — SCA × ANES
- Frequency mismatch; ANES not timestamp-exported.  
→ NOT_GREEN.

### 8. OPP7 — SCE × SCA micro
- SCE not acquired; SCA micro 108 months; max inclusive overlap **9y** (not 11).  
- Joint SCE obs UNKNOWN.  
→ NOT_GREEN.

### 9. OPP8 — L1 × VoteView
- Irregular vs congress; NN proposed only.  
→ NOT_GREEN.

### 10. Univariate ICS persistence/recovery/damping
- Strong contiguous run (584 months from 1978-01) and actual field stamps.  
- Still fails **publication availability** and **lag/holdout coverage exit from UNKNOWN**; M1 `score_authorized=false`; cannot alone establish cross-system dynamics.  
→ NOT_GREEN (near-miss; gates not relaxed).

### 11. Exp002 L1 recovery
- Standing **insufficient_do_not_rescue**. Sparse irregular polls.  
→ NOT_GREEN.

## Evidence anchors (sha256)

| Artifact | sha256 |
|----------|--------|
| `data/lanes/L6/exact_intersections_v0.3.1.json` | `2eb4608efb597e292e48cc7a51bfaca1963a24c93f2ccc2b498c1c8746e3b9fc` |
| `data/lanes/L6/native_timestamps_ics_v0.3.1.json` | `5eb49b9b401725b567c7c154dc28a8358ba87b5596f91e54d512e9aa6e75f25d` |
| `data/lanes/L6/native_timestamps_pago_v0.3.1.json` | `a6bab08c4e5513b4eebe9e74bd66ac74848a7e86418dd1a9a8b69807baebe598` |
| `data/lanes/L6/native_timestamps_pexp_v0.3.1.json` | `d139ea8a6498557d620960539c92e8973e655c743c0d89b19375967aced2e05a` |
| `data/lanes/L6/native_congress_ids_n3_v0.3.1.json` | `d8ed1135dc29b790e38a06b28a1bda3e96a3054eadfeaaaf70119c434dbfca9d` |
| `data/lanes/L6/timestamp_manifests_v0.3.1.json` | `8236e19e821bc414b23f7f194ac0341990d41e4513a4a056422cdb2d21cbc1b3` |
| `data/lanes/L6/ranked_opportunities_v0.3.1.json` | `d3bccff5557e9cda3a33c8e37fef20056e1d9ed6b01464d7b2f701b6919139d1` |
| `data/lanes/L6/v0.3.1_timestamp_export_summary.json` | `04dc90e8f668e4d9a229bc940fa6294778db48eca9afb3848572cd8854a973de` |
| `data/lanes/L6/sensor_inventory_v0.3.json` | `3365cbfeead43952cb81f2544eed411704bfc96d7b00d86ae9267bcebb31d8ea` |
| `docs/lane6/L6_CLOSURE_GREEN_CANDIDATES_v0_1.json` | `69669b787c385be018f76a4f3e8d76cdf91c67196d553828360beab15d915adf` |

## Explicit non-claims

- No GREEN candidates claimed.  
- No feasibility ranking acceptance.  
- No correlations / scores / fitting.  
- No Exp002 rescue.  
- Sealed historical protocol remains PARKED.  
- Product/Hub/Library work continues in parallel and does not alter this scientific closure finding.

## Next ownership

**ASSIGN_TO:** Claude + Astra (independent review of this NO_GREEN adjudication).  
Codex may adversarially check hashes/gates if free. No new broad L6 branches authorized by this closure.