{
  "schema_id": "l6_closure_green_candidates_v0_1",
  "version": "0.1",
  "workstream": "C",
  "james_ref": "5baebbdc-5e60-4a6f-a1f2-92f7fb021f83",
  "hub_ack_ref": "986d241c-1e18-48ff-a21a-2e44907e3ecd",
  "hub_job": "b73c292a-16e2-4f11-9370-1337d0239791",
  "research_job": "lane-L6-propagation-data-density-matrix",
  "model_change": false,
  "scoring_change": false,
  "outcome_access": "PROHIBITED",
  "sealed_historical_challenge": "PARKED_READY_WAITING_FOR_MODEL",
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-10T21:47:09.238835+00:00",
  "generated_at_pt": "2026-09-10 02:47 PM PT",
  "decision": "NO_GREEN_DYNAMIC_DATASET",
  "green_candidates": [],
  "green_candidate_count": 0,
  "max_green_allowed": 3,
  "green_gates_required_all": [
    "actual_construct_observations",
    "actual_common_timestamps",
    "strict_contiguous_runs",
    "calendar_defined_lag_pairs",
    "publication_availability",
    "method_breaks_documented",
    "independent_source_lineage"
  ],
  "sufficiency_policy": {
    "interpolate": false,
    "relax_gates": false,
    "rank_by_theoretical_attractiveness": false,
    "calendar_span_sort": "SCOUTING_ONLY_not_GREEN",
    "same_family_cross_system_independence": false,
    "michigan_583_month_overlap": "narrowly_verified_no_rerun"
  },
  "prior_candidates_assessed": [
    {
      "id": "OPP1_mass_monthly_SCA_x_BLS",
      "dynamic_property_target": "propagation / persistence (mass sentiment \u00d7 objective)",
      "verdict": "NOT_GREEN",
      "gate_failures": {
        "actual_construct_observations": "PARTIAL \u2014 SCA ICS/PAGO/PEXP acquired; BLS local raw empty (documentation_only_local_raw_empty)",
        "actual_common_timestamps": "FAIL \u2014 no local BLS YYYY-MM array; calendar-span overlap 75y is SCOUTING_ONLY not joint obs",
        "strict_contiguous_runs": "PARTIAL \u2014 SCA contiguous in late window; BLS run UNKNOWN locally",
        "calendar_defined_lag_pairs": "FAIL \u2014 observation_coverage_status remains UNKNOWN; no per-lag complete counts with BLS",
        "publication_availability": "FAIL \u2014 SCA publication UNKNOWN; BLS ALFRED vintages not acquired",
        "method_breaks_documented": "PASS_PARTIAL \u2014 SCA phone\u2192web 2024 + early sparse documented; CPS redesigns noted for BLS",
        "independent_source_lineage": "PASS_HEURISTIC \u2014 michigan_sca vs bls families (provenance diversity \u2260 statistical independence)"
      },
      "evidence_refs": [
        "timestamp_manifests_v0.3.1.json#bls_unrate",
        "ranked_opportunities_v0.3.1.json#OPP1",
        "exact_intersections_v0.3.1.json"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "MICHIGAN_ICS_x_PAGO_x_PEXP_same_family",
      "dynamic_property_target": "within-survey propagation / damping among ICS,PAGO,PEXP",
      "verdict": "NOT_GREEN",
      "gate_failures": {
        "actual_construct_observations": "PASS \u2014 acquired local tables with hashes",
        "actual_common_timestamps": "PASS \u2014 exact ICS\u2229PAGO\u2229PEXP = 583 months (1978-01..2026-07); n_gaps=0 on intersection",
        "strict_contiguous_runs": "PASS \u2014 longest_complete_run_months=583 on joint intersection (narrowly verified; no rerun)",
        "calendar_defined_lag_pairs": "FAIL \u2014 ranking_policy still requires per-lag complete counts before leaving UNKNOWN for lag/rolling/holdout; contiguous run \u2260 accepted lag-pair feasibility ledger",
        "publication_availability": "FAIL \u2014 publication_timestamps status UNKNOWN for ICS/PAGO/PEXP; field\u2260release preserved",
        "method_breaks_documented": "PASS \u2014 2024 phone\u2192web; pre-1978 method-different; early ICS sparse months",
        "independent_source_lineage": "FAIL \u2014 all three are source_family=michigan_sca; Astra: cross-system independence not established from same-family series"
      },
      "evidence_refs": [
        "exact_intersections_v0.3.1.json",
        "native_timestamps_*_v0.3.1.json",
        "v0.3.1_timestamp_export_summary.json"
      ],
      "note": "Nearest miss on density/contiguity. Still fails GREEN under publication availability + independent lineage + lag-pair coverage policy. Do not interpolate or treat same-family as cross-system."
    },
    {
      "id": "OPP2_L1_trust_x_SCA_sentiment",
      "dynamic_property_target": "propagation (institutional trust \u00d7 mass sentiment)",
      "verdict": "NOT_GREEN",
      "gate_failures": {
        "actual_construct_observations": "PARTIAL \u2014 L1 production polls acquired; SCA acquired; joint construct at common cadence not observed",
        "actual_common_timestamps": "FAIL \u2014 trust is irregular years_with_polls=53 \u2260 calendar 68; no month-level common stamps",
        "strict_contiguous_runs": "FAIL \u2014 trust gaps (e.g. 2016,2018); Exp002 already INSUFFICIENT for recovery cadence",
        "calendar_defined_lag_pairs": "FAIL \u2014 annualize SCA proposed only; coverage UNKNOWN",
        "publication_availability": "PARTIAL \u2014 L1 field dates in audit where recorded; SCA publication UNKNOWN",
        "method_breaks_documented": "PASS \u2014 pollster/mode mix + SCA mode transitions documented",
        "independent_source_lineage": "PASS_HEURISTIC \u2014 survey_trust vs michigan_sca"
      },
      "evidence_refs": [
        "sensor_inventory_v0.3.json#pew_individual_trust_polls",
        "ranked_opportunities_v0.3.1.json#OPP2"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "OPP3_L1_trust_x_BLS_objective",
      "dynamic_property_target": "propagation (trust \u00d7 objective)",
      "verdict": "NOT_GREEN",
      "gate_failures": {
        "actual_construct_observations": "PARTIAL \u2014 L1 yes; BLS local no",
        "actual_common_timestamps": "FAIL \u2014 BLS timestamps unacquired; trust irregular",
        "strict_contiguous_runs": "FAIL",
        "calendar_defined_lag_pairs": "FAIL",
        "publication_availability": "FAIL \u2014 BLS ALFRED not acquired; L1 only partial",
        "method_breaks_documented": "PASS_PARTIAL",
        "independent_source_lineage": "PASS_HEURISTIC \u2014 survey_trust vs bls"
      },
      "evidence_refs": [
        "timestamp_manifests_v0.3.1.json#bls_unrate",
        "ranked_opportunities_v0.3.1.json#OPP3"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "OPP4_elite_VoteView_x_CBS_cosponsor",
      "dynamic_property_target": "elite boundary / propagation across rollcall vs cosponsor",
      "verdict": "NOT_GREEN",
      "gate_failures": {
        "actual_construct_observations": "PARTIAL \u2014 N3 congress IDs exported; N4 meta landed; not full joint dynamic panel audited here",
        "actual_common_timestamps": "PARTIAL \u2014 21 congress_periods joint meta (98\u2013118); unit\u2260calendar years",
        "strict_contiguous_runs": "PARTIAL \u2014 continuous congress IDs claimed; publication/release cadence UNKNOWN",
        "calendar_defined_lag_pairs": "FAIL \u2014 congress lag pairs / PIT release times not established; coverage UNKNOWN",
        "publication_availability": "FAIL \u2014 VoteView/CBS package release timestamps UNKNOWN",
        "method_breaks_documented": "PASS_PARTIAL \u2014 NOMINATE hindsight / chamber definitions noted",
        "independent_source_lineage": "PARTIAL \u2014 rollcall vs cosponsor diversity; N1+N3 share VoteView upstream (flagged)"
      },
      "evidence_refs": [
        "native_congress_ids_n3_v0.3.1.json",
        "ranked_opportunities_v0.3.1.json#OPP4"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "OPP5_S1_ANES_x_elite_congress",
      "dynamic_property_target": "cross-layer propagation",
      "verdict": "NOT_GREEN",
      "gate_failures": {
        "actual_construct_observations": "FAIL \u2014 ANES documentation_or_meta_only this rebuild",
        "actual_common_timestamps": "FAIL \u2014 nearest_neighbor_alignment PROPOSED_ONLY",
        "strict_contiguous_runs": "FAIL \u2014 election-cycle sparse",
        "calendar_defined_lag_pairs": "FAIL",
        "publication_availability": "FAIL \u2014 CDF release cycles years after election; not verified locally",
        "method_breaks_documented": "PASS_PARTIAL",
        "independent_source_lineage": "PASS_HEURISTIC \u2014 anes vs voteview/cosponsor"
      },
      "evidence_refs": [
        "ranked_opportunities_v0.3.1.json#OPP5",
        "sensor_inventory_v0.3.json#anes_outparty_ft"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "OPP6_SCA_x_ANES_mass_cross",
      "dynamic_property_target": "mass cross-layer propagation",
      "verdict": "NOT_GREEN",
      "gate_failures": {
        "actual_construct_observations": "PARTIAL \u2014 SCA yes; ANES meta only",
        "actual_common_timestamps": "FAIL \u2014 frequency mismatch; no joint native stamps",
        "strict_contiguous_runs": "FAIL",
        "calendar_defined_lag_pairs": "FAIL",
        "publication_availability": "FAIL",
        "method_breaks_documented": "PASS_PARTIAL",
        "independent_source_lineage": "PASS_HEURISTIC"
      },
      "evidence_refs": [
        "ranked_opportunities_v0.3.1.json#OPP6"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "OPP7_SCE_panel_x_SCA_short_window",
      "dynamic_property_target": "short-window replication / propagation",
      "verdict": "NOT_GREEN",
      "gate_failures": {
        "actual_construct_observations": "PARTIAL \u2014 SCA micro 108 months acquired; SCE not locally acquired",
        "actual_common_timestamps": "FAIL \u2014 SCE joint obs UNKNOWN; do not borrow SCE window (max inclusive overlap 9y, not 11)",
        "strict_contiguous_runs": "PARTIAL \u2014 SCA micro contiguous 108m; SCE UNKNOWN",
        "calendar_defined_lag_pairs": "FAIL",
        "publication_availability": "FAIL",
        "method_breaks_documented": "PASS_PARTIAL",
        "independent_source_lineage": "PASS_HEURISTIC \u2014 nyfed_sce vs michigan_sca (MED independence_flag)"
      },
      "evidence_refs": [
        "ranked_opportunities_v0.3.1.json#OPP7",
        "timestamp_manifests_v0.3.1.json#ny_fed_sce_panel"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "OPP8_L1_trust_x_elite_VoteView",
      "dynamic_property_target": "mass\u2013elite propagation",
      "verdict": "NOT_GREEN",
      "gate_failures": {
        "actual_construct_observations": "PARTIAL",
        "actual_common_timestamps": "FAIL \u2014 irregular vs congress; NN PROPOSED_ONLY",
        "strict_contiguous_runs": "FAIL",
        "calendar_defined_lag_pairs": "FAIL",
        "publication_availability": "FAIL",
        "method_breaks_documented": "PASS_PARTIAL",
        "independent_source_lineage": "PASS_HEURISTIC"
      },
      "evidence_refs": [
        "ranked_opportunities_v0.3.1.json#OPP8"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "UNIVARIATE_ICS_persistence_recovery_damping",
      "dynamic_property_target": "persistence / recovery / damping on single dense series",
      "verdict": "NOT_GREEN",
      "gate_failures": {
        "actual_construct_observations": "PASS \u2014 ICS field months acquired (n=676; longest complete run 584m from 1978-01)",
        "actual_common_timestamps": "N/A_UNIVARIATE \u2014 not a multi-sensor common-timestamp test",
        "strict_contiguous_runs": "PASS \u2014 584 contiguous months post-1977 (gaps concentrated pre-1978)",
        "calendar_defined_lag_pairs": "FAIL \u2014 no accepted per-lag complete-count ledger / holdout feasibility; observation_coverage_status UNKNOWN under declared policy",
        "publication_availability": "FAIL \u2014 publication_timestamps UNKNOWN (release vintage absent from public tables)",
        "method_breaks_documented": "PASS \u2014 early sparse; 2024 phone\u2192web",
        "independent_source_lineage": "N/A_UNIVARIATE \u2014 cannot establish cross-system dynamics; M1 score_authorized=false"
      },
      "evidence_refs": [
        "native_timestamps_ics_v0.3.1.json",
        "sensor_inventory_v0.3.json#michigan_sca_ics_monthly_agg"
      ],
      "note": "Strong density near-miss for univariate dynamics, but GREEN requires publication availability + lag/holdout coverage exit from UNKNOWN. Do not relax."
    },
    {
      "id": "EXP002_L1_recovery",
      "dynamic_property_target": "recovery",
      "verdict": "NOT_GREEN",
      "gate_failures": {
        "actual_construct_observations": "PASS \u2014 L1 live",
        "actual_common_timestamps": "FAIL \u2014 irregular polls",
        "strict_contiguous_runs": "FAIL",
        "calendar_defined_lag_pairs": "FAIL",
        "publication_availability": "PARTIAL",
        "method_breaks_documented": "PASS \u2014 pollster mix fatal for Exp002 honesty",
        "independent_source_lineage": "N/A"
      },
      "evidence_refs": [
        "sensor_inventory_v0.3.json#exp002_recovery_meta",
        "docs/lanes/L5_recovery_data_search/RECOVERY_CANDIDATE_SERIES.md"
      ],
      "note": "Standing: insufficient_do_not_rescue. L5 does not reopen Exp002."
    }
  ],
  "evidence_artifact_sha256": {
    "exact_intersections_v0.3.1.json": "2eb4608efb597e292e48cc7a51bfaca1963a24c93f2ccc2b498c1c8746e3b9fc",
    "native_timestamps_ics_v0.3.1.json": "5eb49b9b401725b567c7c154dc28a8358ba87b5596f91e54d512e9aa6e75f25d",
    "native_timestamps_pago_v0.3.1.json": "a6bab08c4e5513b4eebe9e74bd66ac74848a7e86418dd1a9a8b69807baebe598",
    "native_timestamps_pexp_v0.3.1.json": "d139ea8a6498557d620960539c92e8973e655c743c0d89b19375967aced2e05a",
    "native_congress_ids_n3_v0.3.1.json": "d8ed1135dc29b790e38a06b28a1bda3e96a3054eadfeaaaf70119c434dbfca9d",
    "timestamp_manifests_v0.3.1.json": "8236e19e821bc414b23f7f194ac0341990d41e4513a4a056422cdb2d21cbc1b3",
    "ranked_opportunities_v0.3.1.json": "d3bccff5557e9cda3a33c8e37fef20056e1d9ed6b01464d7b2f701b6919139d1",
    "v0.3.1_timestamp_export_summary.json": "04dc90e8f668e4d9a229bc940fa6294778db48eca9afb3848572cd8854a973de",
    "sensor_inventory_v0.3.json": "3365cbfeead43952cb81f2544eed411704bfc96d7b00d86ae9267bcebb31d8ea"
  },
  "non_claims": [
    "No correlations, scores, fitting, or Exp002 rescue",
    "Feasibility ranking remains NOT accepted",
    "No GREEN list \u2014 empty by sufficiency, not by omission",
    "Publication timestamps remain UNKNOWN where marked",
    "BLS local timestamps remain unacquired"
  ]
}