{
  "review": {
    "astra_reconciliation": "92358493-2406-4e1d-8243-bdfa7edc9a0c",
    "astra_updated_review": "339cb28d-720c-40d0-ba2d-aee865e37875",
    "supersedes_execution_approval": "5a018515-0a17-4d57-a3d3-98106019e08f",
    "hub_msgs": [
      "3c8f210c",
      "c234c2a0",
      "63a2df8d"
    ],
    "decision": "CHANGES_REQUESTED_BEFORE_INFERENTIAL_COMPUTE / EXP002_EPISODE_GATE_PARTIAL_PASS_INFERENCE_NOT_YET_AUTHORIZED",
    "next_action": "COMPLETE_EPISODE_TRACE_AUDIT_AND_FREEZE_ONE_NULL_MODEL",
    "assign_to": "GROK",
    "model_change": "NO",
    "ownership_split_hub": "8ae6adb1 \u2014 Grok owns Exp002 audit; Claude owns E2 replication; Codex proposals need Claude/Astra review; do NOT claim M1 independent replication from derived pairs"
  },
  "input_provenance": {
    "path": "/workspace/srp-observatory/data/raw/l1/pew_individual_and_smoothed.csv",
    "sha256": "c32f7f02ceed3fc647f14e3afa2c09e9d6affff07887c5c240641d902705de9d",
    "n_polls": 163,
    "field_date_min": "1958-12-01",
    "field_date_max": "2025-09-28",
    "metric": "individual_pct",
    "note": "Compiled individual-poll research input (Pew-compiled series). Distinct from frozen production L1-US-v0.1 score series \u2014 not a replacement."
  },
  "thresholds_frozen": {
    "D": 8,
    "K": 2,
    "M": 8,
    "MIN_SPAN": 365,
    "MAX_SPAN": 2920,
    "G_max": 730,
    "confirm_days": 540,
    "H": 3650
  },
  "n_confirmed_as_published_look_ahead_gate": 6,
  "n_confirmed_under_strict_frozen_forward_logic": 5,
  "n_recovered_as_run": 6,
  "n_censored": 0,
  "zero_censor_explanation": {
    "n_right_censored_confirmed_episodes": 0,
    "series_end_date": "2025-09-28",
    "explanation": "Zero right-censored confirmed episodes because every confirmed episode under the published look-ahead gate reached a 50% recovery detection before series end. Post-2010 unconfirmed onset candidates were discarded as UNCONFIRMED (not censored episodes). Censoring applies only to confirmed IN_EPISODE trajectories that never cross r50 by EOF/H; unconfirmed onsets are not episodes and are not right-censored.",
    "post2010_unconfirmed_are_not_censored_episodes": true
  },
  "E005_disposition": "E005_RECLASSIFIED_CONFIRMATION_ORDERING_FAILURE",
  "E005_detail": {
    "prior_status_as_published_gate": "RECOVERED",
    "prior_detect_date": "2008-10-15",
    "confirmation_rule_as_run": "K_of_3_le_B0_minus_D_half",
    "confirmation_followups_used": [
      "2008-10-15",
      "2008-12-21",
      "2009-06-12"
    ],
    "confirmation_followups_after_recovery": [
      "2008-12-21",
      "2009-06-12"
    ],
    "frozen_protocol_permits_retrospective_confirmation": false,
    "protocol_basis": "v0.3 \u00a74.1 states SEEK_ONSET\u2192IN_EPISODE\u2192(RECOVERED|CENSORED); \u00a74.2 confirmation gates entry to IN_EPISODE; \u00a74.3 recovery is an IN_EPISODE update. No clause authorizes confirming an episode with observations after a recovery detection. Gate script look-ahead over all within-540d follow-ups is an implementation choice not written into frozen text.",
    "reclassification": "E005_RECLASSIFIED_CONFIRMATION_ORDERING_FAILURE",
    "reclass_status": "INVALIDATED_CONFIRMATION_AFTER_RECOVERY_CROSSING",
    "reclass_rationale": "Under look-ahead gate: onset 2008-10-13 x=17; recovery detect 2008-10-15 x=31 (>= r50=24.25). Immediate-next confirm fails (31 > B0-D=23.5). K-of-3 confirm uses follow-ups ['2008-10-15', '2008-12-21', '2009-06-12'] values [31.0, 26.0, 20.0], of which polls after recovery are required to reach K=2. Frozen v0.3 does not permit retrospective confirmation. Therefore E005 is invalidated under frozen forward chronology \u2014 NOT arbitrarily excluded; retained in ledger with this disposition.",
    "forward_only_machine_note": "Forward-only confirmation cannot decide at 2008-10-15 (only 1 follow-up; immediate-next fails). K-of-3 first decidable when 3rd follow-up arrives (2009-06-12), which is after the Oct15 crossing. Ambiguity preserved as protocol issue for v0.3.1 clarification \u2014 not silently re-forced to N_ep=6.",
    "counts_toward_N_ep_under_strict_frozen_logic": false,
    "counts_toward_N_ep_under_published_look_ahead_gate": true,
    "window_polls": [
      {
        "poll_index": 120,
        "date": "2007-01-09",
        "value": 31.0,
        "source": "Pew Research Center"
      },
      {
        "poll_index": 121,
        "date": "2007-07-09",
        "value": 24.0,
        "source": "CBS/NYT"
      },
      {
        "poll_index": 122,
        "date": "2008-10-13",
        "value": 17.0,
        "source": "CBS/NYT"
      },
      {
        "poll_index": 123,
        "date": "2008-10-15",
        "value": 31.0,
        "source": "NES"
      },
      {
        "poll_index": 124,
        "date": "2008-12-21",
        "value": 26.0,
        "source": "CNN"
      },
      {
        "poll_index": 125,
        "date": "2009-06-12",
        "value": 20.0,
        "source": "CBS/NYT"
      },
      {
        "poll_index": 126,
        "date": "2009-08-31",
        "value": 24.0,
        "source": "CBS/NYT"
      },
      {
        "poll_index": 127,
        "date": "2009-12-20",
        "value": 20.0,
        "source": "CNN"
      },
      {
        "poll_index": 128,
        "date": "2010-01-10",
        "value": 19.0,
        "source": "GALLUP"
      },
      {
        "poll_index": 129,
        "date": "2010-02-05",
        "value": 19.0,
        "source": "CBS/NYT"
      }
    ]
  },
  "admissible_B1_count_strict": 4,
  "admissible_B1_count_if_E005_kept_under_look_ahead": 5,
  "note_six_confirmed_neq_six_usable": "Six confirmed (look-ahead gate) \u2260 six usable independent observations. Under strict frozen confirmation ordering, E005 invalidated \u2192 N_ep_strict=5. Admissible B1 windows (cadence-valid, not invalidated): 4. Shared B0/EP/B1 poll overlaps further reduce effective independence; episode-block null required (see frozen null).",
  "null_frozen_for_review": "EXP002_NULL_V0_3_1_POLL_INDEX_BLOCK_BOOTSTRAP",
  "ratchet_statistic": "NOT_COMPUTED",
  "secular_trend_significance": "NOT_COMPUTED",
  "support_not_support_conclusion": "NOT_ISSUED",
  "independent_review_response": {
    "status": "INDEPENDENT_REVIEW_CHANGES_REQUESTED_ACK",
    "decision_honored": "PRESERVE_SPARSE_SAMPLE_GATE; AUDIT_ONLY",
    "v031_status": "PROPOSAL_NOT_ACCEPTED",
    "observed_ratchet": "NOT_COMPUTED",
    "sparse_gate_statement": "Prior min-six confirmed (N_ep>=6) is NOT met under strict/forward-only counts (5 confirmed; 4 admissible B1). Original insufficiency PRESERVED. Do not lower gate to B1>=4. Do not compute observed ratchet.",
    "cascade_result": "CASCADE_CONFIRMED_ROW_DELETE_NOT_EQUIVALENT",
    "source_count_note": "163=total polls; 155=candidate starts tested (163-M); same CSV sha c32f7f02\u2026",
    "null_status": "PROPOSAL_REVISED_NOT_RUN"
  },
  "sparse_sample_gate": {
    "N_ep_min": 6,
    "look_ahead_N_ep": 6,
    "strict_forward_N_ep": 5,
    "admissible_B1": 4,
    "status": "INSUFFICIENT_EPISODES",
    "lowered_gate_B1_ge_4": "REJECTED"
  }
}