{
  "kind": "REAL_E005_ERA_THREE_TIME_TRACE_V0_3_2",
  "version": "v0.3.2-draft",
  "status": "PROPOSAL_ONLY_AUDIT_LABELS",
  "empirical_series": true,
  "inference_authorized": false,
  "model_change": false,
  "input_provenance": {
    "path": "data/raw/l1/pew_individual_and_smoothed.csv",
    "sha256": "c32f7f02ceed3fc647f14e3afa2c09e9d6affff07887c5c240641d902705de9d",
    "note": "Compiled individual-poll research input; distinct from frozen production L1-US-v0.1"
  },
  "episode_tag": "E005-era (look-ahead published id); labels under proposed streaming three-time semantics",
  "frozen_thresholds": {
    "B0": 31.5,
    "D": 8,
    "B0_minus_D": 23.5,
    "B0_minus_D_half": 27.5,
    "xmin_at_onset": 17.0,
    "r50_prov": 24.25
  },
  "polls_onset_through_forward_confirm": [
    {
      "date": "2008-10-13",
      "x": 17.0,
      "source": "CBS/NYT",
      "role": "ONSET+TROUGH"
    },
    {
      "date": "2008-10-15",
      "x": 31.0,
      "source": "NES",
      "role": "FIRST_CROSS_OBS"
    },
    {
      "date": "2008-12-21",
      "x": 26.0,
      "source": "CNN",
      "role": "CONFIRM_HIT_2"
    },
    {
      "date": "2009-06-12",
      "x": 20.0,
      "source": "CBS/NYT",
      "role": "CONFIRM_K2_DECIDABLE_FORWARD_ONLY"
    }
  ],
  "three_times_streaming_forward_only": {
    "T_cross_obs": {
      "date": "2008-10-15",
      "x": 31.0,
      "definition": "first post-trough poll with x >= r50_prov (31.0 >= 24.25)",
      "interval_censored_bounds": {
        "last_below_date": "2008-10-13",
        "last_below_x": 17.0,
        "first_above_date": "2008-10-15",
        "first_above_x": 31.0,
        "notation": "(2008-10-13, 2008-10-15]"
      },
      "primary": true,
      "not_proven_physical_event": true
    },
    "T_confirm": {
      "date": "2009-06-12",
      "definition": "earliest forward-only information-availability for K-of-3 (hits <=27.5 on 2008-12-21 and 2009-06-12; immediate-next 2008-10-15 fails)",
      "rule": "K_of_3_le_B0_minus_D_half",
      "followups_evaluated": [
        {
          "date": "2008-10-15",
          "x": 31.0,
          "hit_le_half": false
        },
        {
          "date": "2008-12-21",
          "x": 26.0,
          "hit_le_half": true
        },
        {
          "date": "2009-06-12",
          "x": 20.0,
          "hit_le_half": true
        }
      ],
      "primary": false
    },
    "T_recovery_recognized": {
      "date": "2009-06-12",
      "definition": "operational secondary = max(T_cross_obs, T_confirm)",
      "primary": false,
      "secondary": true
    }
  },
  "contrast_with_rejected_relabel": {
    "do_not_move_T_cross_obs_to_confirm_time": true,
    "do_not_report_interval_starting_at_T_confirm_as_original_crossing": true,
    "example_invalid": "Reporting (2008-12-21, 2009-06-12] or any post-confirm-only interval as the original first crossing would repeat the (804,806] error class"
  },
  "full_machine_rerun_required_before_inference": {
    "required": true,
    "reason": "Global event-time / state-transition semantics change cascades (E005/E006 merge under forward-only). Hand labels \u2260 executed full-series rerun. Do not claim N_ep or admissible-B1 counts changed unless an audit-only comparison is explicitly labeled as such after actual rerun.",
    "prior_peer_reported_forward_only": {
      "source": "exp002_e005_e006_cascade_check.json",
      "n_confirmed": 5,
      "admissible_B1": 4,
      "label": "PEER_REPORTED_PRIOR_AUDIT \u2014 not re-executed in this packet"
    }
  },
  "insufficiency_preserved": {
    "v0_3_gate": "N_ep >= 6 required; else INSUFFICIENT_EPISODES / DATA_INSUFFICIENT",
    "astra_72626335": "EXP002_V0_3_INSUFFICIENT_FOR_INFERENCE",
    "preserved": true,
    "ratchet_computed": false,
    "scoring_changed": false,
    "gate_lowered": false,
    "observed_ratchet_statistic": "NOT_COMPUTED"
  }
}