{
  "kind": "STATE_TABLE_SYNTHETIC_TESTS_V0_3_4",
  "version": "v0.3.4-draft",
  "status": "PROPOSAL_ONLY",
  "label": "v0.3.4-draft (corrected v0.3.3) \u2014 NOT v0.4 acceptance",
  "model_change": false,
  "empirical": false,
  "inference_authorized": false,
  "insufficiency_preserved": true,
  "responds_to": {
    "chatgpt_changes_before_v04": "817d6907-9cb0-420f-9452-10e12daf3c89",
    "codex_state_table": "44ddfaaf-2d90-4b3f-8f42-b9b79d510176",
    "claude_review": "3c271dfe-c671-4cfb-a4d2-66b9570ab000",
    "claude_handoff_harness": "7a7c35f8-b543-4ad4-bb24-6d14f05a3f07",
    "chatgpt_b1": "dce6003c-d5a0-4ee9-8308-cae3c72972e7",
    "astra_insufficiency": "72626335"
  },
  "fixes_vs_v033": [
    "Restore K-of-next-3 + 540d confirmation boundary; reject silent unbounded append (Case C)",
    "CONFIRMED_UNRECOVERED on confirm-without-cross; CENSORED_NO_CROSS only after follow-up limit",
    "Explicit refractory_polls=1 + baseline recompute + multi-episode test; EOS \u2260 timeout",
    "HISTORICAL/CURRENT = x_at_confirm ? r50; reject 7a7c35f8 'crossing-before-confirm=HISTORICAL'",
    "Runnable source + full_inputs + sha256 hashes for every case"
  ],
  "confirmation_rule_primary": {
    "name": "K_OF_NEXT_N_WITHIN_CONFIRM_DAYS_OR_IMMEDIATE_NEXT",
    "K": 2,
    "N": 3,
    "confirm_days": 540,
    "immediate_next": "first post-onset poll \u2264 B0-D",
    "hits": "post-onset poll \u2264 B0-D/2 counts only if ordinal \u2264 N",
    "rejected_silent_broadening": "append_hits_until_K_without_window",
    "variant_unbounded": "VARIANT_UNBOUNDED_APPEND_UNTIL_K_NOT_DEFAULT (contrast only)"
  },
  "historical_vs_current_definition": {
    "binding": "RECOVERED_CURRENT iff x_at_confirm \u2265 r50; RECOVERED_HISTORICAL iff confirmed with prior T_cross_obs and x_at_confirm < r50",
    "rejected_from_claude_7a7c35f8": "Historical = crossing observed before confirmation date",
    "audit_flag": "cross_preceded_confirm (diagnostic only; does not set label)",
    "case_A": "CURRENT despite earlier crossing because x_at_confirm \u2265 r50"
  },
  "source": {
    "path": "/workspace/srp-observatory/scripts/run_exp002_state_table_v034_synthetics.py",
    "sha256": "45226ec1daf34aab26a7ef179d27b34113bc645f1c38b98120ec7b1ab21f0240"
  },
  "cases": {
    "A_cross_then_confirm_current": {
      "final_state": "SEEK_ONSET",
      "episode": {
        "onset_t": 800,
        "onset_day": 800,
        "B0": 40.0,
        "xmin": 24.0,
        "xmin_t": 800,
        "r50": 32.0,
        "confirm_hit_indices": [
          2,
          3
        ],
        "confirm_hit_ts": [
          803,
          804
        ],
        "post_onset_count": 3,
        "T_cross_obs": 802,
        "cross_interval": [
          800,
          802
        ],
        "last_below_t": 800,
        "T_confirm": 804,
        "T_recovery_recognized": 804,
        "x_at_confirm": 35.0,
        "same_poll_cross_confirm": false,
        "crossings_cleared_preconfirm": 0,
        "label": "RECOVERED_CURRENT",
        "reason": "end_of_series_after_confirm",
        "cross_preceded_confirm": true,
        "episode_id": 1,
        "closed": true,
        "unrecovered_followup_polls": 0,
        "baseline_source_ts": [
          700,
          701,
          702,
          703,
          704,
          705,
          706,
          707
        ],
        "B1_audit": {
          "anchor": "T_cross_obs",
          "estimand": "crossing_anchored_retrospective_audit",
          "status": "VISIBLE_BUT_NOT_COMPUTED_IN_THIS_PACKET",
          "applies_even_if_historical": true
        }
      },
      "events": [
        {
          "kind": "ENTER_PENDING",
          "t": 800,
          "x": 24.0,
          "xmin": 24.0,
          "r50": 32.0,
          "B0": 40.0,
          "baseline_source_ts": [
            700,
            701,
            702,
            703,
            704,
            705,
            706,
            707
          ],
          "episode_id": 1
        },
        {
          "kind": "CROSS_OBS_RECORDED",
          "t": 802,
          "x": 38.0,
          "r50": 32.0,
          "interval": [
            800,
            802
          ],
          "state": "PENDING"
        },
        {
          "kind": "CONFIRM_HIT",
          "t": 803,
          "x": 35.0,
          "ordinal": 2,
          "hits": 1,
          "need": 2,
          "window_N": 3,
          "in_window": true
        },
        {
          "kind": "CONFIRM_HIT",
          "t": 804,
          "x": 35.0,
          "ordinal": 3,
          "hits": 2,
          "need": 2,
          "window_N": 3,
          "in_window": true
        },
        {
          "kind": "CONFIRM_DECIDABLE",
          "t": 804,
          "label": "RECOVERED_CURRENT",
          "T_cross_obs": 802,
          "cross_interval": [
            800,
            802
          ],
          "T_confirm": 804,
          "T_recovery_recognized": 804,
          "xmin": 24.0,
          "xmin_t": 800,
          "r50": 32.0,
          "B0": 40.0,
          "onset_t": 800,
          "x_at_confirm": 35.0,
          "same_poll_cross_confirm": false,
          "crossings_cleared_preconfirm": 0,
          "cross_preceded_confirm": true,
          "definition": "CURRENT_IFF_x_at_confirm_ge_r50__NOT_crossing_before_confirm"
        },
        {
          "kind": "EPISODE_CLOSED",
          "t": 804,
          "label": "RECOVERED_CURRENT",
          "reason": "end_of_series_after_confirm",
          "episode_id": 1
        }
      ],
      "n_closed_episodes": 1,
      "closed_episode_labels": [
        "RECOVERED_CURRENT"
      ],
      "full_inputs": {
        "warm_history": [
          {
            "t": 700,
            "x": 40.0,
            "day": 700
          },
          {
            "t": 701,
            "x": 40.0,
            "day": 701
          },
          {
            "t": 702,
            "x": 40.0,
            "day": 702
          },
          {
            "t": 703,
            "x": 40.0,
            "day": 703
          },
          {
            "t": 704,
            "x": 40.0,
            "day": 704
          },
          {
            "t": 705,
            "x": 40.0,
            "day": 705
          },
          {
            "t": 706,
            "x": 40.0,
            "day": 706
          },
          {
            "t": 707,
            "x": 40.0,
            "day": 707
          }
        ],
        "polls": [
          {
            "t": 800,
            "x": 24.0,
            "day": 800
          },
          {
            "t": 802,
            "x": 38.0,
            "day": 802
          },
          {
            "t": 803,
            "x": 35.0,
            "day": 803
          },
          {
            "t": 804,
            "x": 35.0,
            "day": 804
          }
        ],
        "params": {
          "B0": 40.0,
          "D": 8.0,
          "K": 2,
          "N_confirm_window": 3,
          "confirm_days": 540,
          "M": 8,
          "trough_policy": "revise_on_deeper_trough",
          "baseline_rule": "STRICTLY_TRAILING_M",
          "confirm_rule": "K_OF_NEXT_N_WITHIN_CONFIRM_DAYS_OR_IMMEDIATE_NEXT",
          "confirm_hits_exclude_onset": true,
          "refractory_polls": 1,
          "R_followup_max_polls": 6,
          "R_days_max": 540
        },
        "end_of_series": true
      },
      "full_inputs_sha256": "89b3c1729343eb82addee221160dc6a1fc73a1379301877b337f208626ea342e",
      "checks": [
        {
          "pass": true,
          "detail": "label_CURRENT"
        },
        {
          "pass": true,
          "detail": "T_cross=802"
        },
        {
          "pass": true,
          "detail": "T_confirm=804"
        },
        {
          "pass": true,
          "detail": "x_ge_r50"
        },
        {
          "pass": true,
          "detail": "cross_preceded_confirm_audit"
        },
        {
          "pass": true,
          "detail": "not_historical_despite_early_cross"
        }
      ],
      "pass": true,
      "meta": {
        "codex_item": "cross then confirm, current; aligns HISTORICAL/CURRENT vs Claude 7a7c35f8"
      }
    },
    "B_cross_then_relapse_historical": {
      "final_state": "SEEK_ONSET",
      "episode": {
        "onset_t": 800,
        "onset_day": 800,
        "B0": 40.0,
        "xmin": 17.0,
        "xmin_t": 800,
        "r50": 28.5,
        "confirm_hit_indices": [
          2,
          3
        ],
        "confirm_hit_ts": [
          803,
          804
        ],
        "post_onset_count": 3,
        "T_cross_obs": 802,
        "cross_interval": [
          800,
          802
        ],
        "last_below_t": 804,
        "T_confirm": 804,
        "T_recovery_recognized": 804,
        "x_at_confirm": 20.0,
        "same_poll_cross_confirm": false,
        "crossings_cleared_preconfirm": 0,
        "label": "RECOVERED_HISTORICAL",
        "reason": "end_of_series_after_confirm",
        "cross_preceded_confirm": true,
        "episode_id": 1,
        "closed": true,
        "unrecovered_followup_polls": 0,
        "baseline_source_ts": [
          700,
          701,
          702,
          703,
          704,
          705,
          706,
          707
        ],
        "B1_audit": {
          "anchor": "T_cross_obs",
          "estimand": "crossing_anchored_retrospective_audit",
          "status": "VISIBLE_BUT_NOT_COMPUTED_IN_THIS_PACKET",
          "applies_even_if_historical": true
        }
      },
      "events": [
        {
          "kind": "ENTER_PENDING",
          "t": 800,
          "x": 17.0,
          "xmin": 17.0,
          "r50": 28.5,
          "B0": 40.0,
          "baseline_source_ts": [
            700,
            701,
            702,
            703,
            704,
            705,
            706,
            707
          ],
          "episode_id": 1
        },
        {
          "kind": "CROSS_OBS_RECORDED",
          "t": 802,
          "x": 38.0,
          "r50": 28.5,
          "interval": [
            800,
            802
          ],
          "state": "PENDING"
        },
        {
          "kind": "CONFIRM_HIT",
          "t": 803,
          "x": 26.0,
          "ordinal": 2,
          "hits": 1,
          "need": 2,
          "window_N": 3,
          "in_window": true
        },
        {
          "kind": "CONFIRM_HIT",
          "t": 804,
          "x": 20.0,
          "ordinal": 3,
          "hits": 2,
          "need": 2,
          "window_N": 3,
          "in_window": true
        },
        {
          "kind": "CONFIRM_DECIDABLE",
          "t": 804,
          "label": "RECOVERED_HISTORICAL",
          "T_cross_obs": 802,
          "cross_interval": [
            800,
            802
          ],
          "T_confirm": 804,
          "T_recovery_recognized": 804,
          "xmin": 17.0,
          "xmin_t": 800,
          "r50": 28.5,
          "B0": 40.0,
          "onset_t": 800,
          "x_at_confirm": 20.0,
          "same_poll_cross_confirm": false,
          "crossings_cleared_preconfirm": 0,
          "cross_preceded_confirm": true,
          "definition": "CURRENT_IFF_x_at_confirm_ge_r50__NOT_crossing_before_confirm"
        },
        {
          "kind": "EPISODE_CLOSED",
          "t": 804,
          "label": "RECOVERED_HISTORICAL",
          "reason": "end_of_series_after_confirm",
          "episode_id": 1
        }
      ],
      "n_closed_episodes": 1,
      "closed_episode_labels": [
        "RECOVERED_HISTORICAL"
      ],
      "full_inputs": {
        "warm_history": [
          {
            "t": 700,
            "x": 40.0,
            "day": 700
          },
          {
            "t": 701,
            "x": 40.0,
            "day": 701
          },
          {
            "t": 702,
            "x": 40.0,
            "day": 702
          },
          {
            "t": 703,
            "x": 40.0,
            "day": 703
          },
          {
            "t": 704,
            "x": 40.0,
            "day": 704
          },
          {
            "t": 705,
            "x": 40.0,
            "day": 705
          },
          {
            "t": 706,
            "x": 40.0,
            "day": 706
          },
          {
            "t": 707,
            "x": 40.0,
            "day": 707
          }
        ],
        "polls": [
          {
            "t": 800,
            "x": 17.0,
            "day": 800
          },
          {
            "t": 802,
            "x": 38.0,
            "day": 802
          },
          {
            "t": 803,
            "x": 26.0,
            "day": 803
          },
          {
            "t": 804,
            "x": 20.0,
            "day": 804
          }
        ],
        "params": {
          "B0": 40.0,
          "D": 8.0,
          "K": 2,
          "N_confirm_window": 3,
          "confirm_days": 540,
          "M": 8,
          "trough_policy": "revise_on_deeper_trough",
          "baseline_rule": "STRICTLY_TRAILING_M",
          "confirm_rule": "K_OF_NEXT_N_WITHIN_CONFIRM_DAYS_OR_IMMEDIATE_NEXT",
          "confirm_hits_exclude_onset": true,
          "refractory_polls": 1,
          "R_followup_max_polls": 6,
          "R_days_max": 540
        },
        "end_of_series": true
      },
      "full_inputs_sha256": "ea9efac2a2890520e4f7a4241067511bd2124b7cc623bc7b3d6c4f4f29740e46",
      "checks": [
        {
          "pass": true,
          "detail": "label_HISTORICAL"
        },
        {
          "pass": true,
          "detail": "below_r50"
        },
        {
          "pass": true,
          "detail": "times"
        }
      ],
      "pass": true,
      "meta": {
        "codex_item": "cross then relapse before confirm \u2192 HISTORICAL by x_at_confirm < r50"
      }
    },
    "C_deeper_trough_K_of_next_3_does_not_confirm": {
      "final_state": "SEEK_ONSET",
      "episode": {
        "onset_t": 800,
        "onset_day": 800,
        "B0": 40.0,
        "xmin": 20.0,
        "xmin_t": 803,
        "r50": 30.0,
        "confirm_hit_indices": [
          2
        ],
        "confirm_hit_ts": [
          803
        ],
        "post_onset_count": 3,
        "T_cross_obs": null,
        "cross_interval": null,
        "last_below_t": 803,
        "T_confirm": null,
        "T_recovery_recognized": null,
        "x_at_confirm": null,
        "same_poll_cross_confirm": false,
        "crossings_cleared_preconfirm": 1,
        "label": "CENSORED",
        "reason": "confirm_window_exhausted_K_of_next_N",
        "cross_preceded_confirm": null,
        "episode_id": 1,
        "closed": true,
        "unrecovered_followup_polls": 0,
        "baseline_source_ts": [
          700,
          701,
          702,
          703,
          704,
          705,
          706,
          707
        ],
        "B1_audit": {
          "anchor": "T_cross_obs",
          "estimand": "crossing_anchored_retrospective_audit",
          "status": "VISIBLE_BUT_NOT_COMPUTED_IN_THIS_PACKET",
          "applies_even_if_historical": true
        }
      },
      "events": [
        {
          "kind": "ENTER_PENDING",
          "t": 800,
          "x": 24.0,
          "xmin": 24.0,
          "r50": 32.0,
          "B0": 40.0,
          "baseline_source_ts": [
            700,
            701,
            702,
            703,
            704,
            705,
            706,
            707
          ],
          "episode_id": 1
        },
        {
          "kind": "CROSS_OBS_RECORDED",
          "t": 802,
          "x": 38.0,
          "r50": 32.0,
          "interval": [
            800,
            802
          ],
          "state": "PENDING"
        },
        {
          "kind": "DEEPER_TROUGH_REVISE",
          "t": 803,
          "x": 20.0,
          "xmin": 20.0,
          "r50": 30.0,
          "cleared_prior_crossing": true,
          "policy": "revise_on_deeper_trough"
        },
        {
          "kind": "CONFIRM_HIT",
          "t": 803,
          "x": 20.0,
          "ordinal": 2,
          "hits": 1,
          "need": 2,
          "window_N": 3,
          "in_window": true
        },
        {
          "kind": "CONFIRM_WINDOW_EXHAUSTED",
          "t": 804,
          "ordinal": 3,
          "hits": 1,
          "need": 2,
          "window_N": 3
        },
        {
          "kind": "EPISODE_CLOSED",
          "t": 804,
          "label": "CENSORED",
          "reason": "confirm_window_exhausted_K_of_next_N",
          "episode_id": 1
        }
      ],
      "n_closed_episodes": 1,
      "closed_episode_labels": [
        "CENSORED"
      ],
      "full_inputs": {
        "warm_history": [
          {
            "t": 700,
            "x": 40.0,
            "day": 700
          },
          {
            "t": 701,
            "x": 40.0,
            "day": 701
          },
          {
            "t": 702,
            "x": 40.0,
            "day": 702
          },
          {
            "t": 703,
            "x": 40.0,
            "day": 703
          },
          {
            "t": 704,
            "x": 40.0,
            "day": 704
          },
          {
            "t": 705,
            "x": 40.0,
            "day": 705
          },
          {
            "t": 706,
            "x": 40.0,
            "day": 706
          },
          {
            "t": 707,
            "x": 40.0,
            "day": 707
          }
        ],
        "polls": [
          {
            "t": 800,
            "x": 24.0,
            "day": 800
          },
          {
            "t": 802,
            "x": 38.0,
            "day": 802
          },
          {
            "t": 803,
            "x": 20.0,
            "day": 803
          },
          {
            "t": 804,
            "x": 38.0,
            "day": 804
          },
          {
            "t": 805,
            "x": 34.0,
            "day": 805
          }
        ],
        "params": {
          "B0": 40.0,
          "D": 8.0,
          "K": 2,
          "N_confirm_window": 3,
          "confirm_days": 540,
          "M": 8,
          "trough_policy": "revise_on_deeper_trough",
          "baseline_rule": "STRICTLY_TRAILING_M",
          "confirm_rule": "K_OF_NEXT_N_WITHIN_CONFIRM_DAYS_OR_IMMEDIATE_NEXT",
          "confirm_hits_exclude_onset": true,
          "refractory_polls": 1,
          "R_followup_max_polls": 6,
          "R_days_max": 540
        },
        "end_of_series": true
      },
      "full_inputs_sha256": "b68c53dc133a0603673eb584942893cfb9e51ddf15762d80d85691a289912268",
      "checks": [
        {
          "pass": true,
          "detail": "censored_not_confirmed"
        },
        {
          "pass": true,
          "detail": "reason_window"
        },
        {
          "pass": true,
          "detail": "one_hit_in_window_at_803"
        },
        {
          "pass": true,
          "detail": "exhausted_event"
        },
        {
          "pass": true,
          "detail": "no_T_confirm"
        }
      ],
      "pass": true,
      "meta": {
        "codex_item": "Case C: restore K-of-next-3; v0.3.3 silent append rejected",
        "v033_bug": "v0.3.3 confirmed at 805 after 4 post-onset polls; only 803 of first 3 qualifies"
      }
    },
    "C_contrast_unbounded_append_VARIANT_NOT_DEFAULT": {
      "final_state": "SEEK_ONSET",
      "episode": {
        "onset_t": 800,
        "onset_day": 800,
        "B0": 40.0,
        "xmin": 20.0,
        "xmin_t": 803,
        "r50": 30.0,
        "confirm_hit_indices": [
          2,
          4
        ],
        "confirm_hit_ts": [
          803,
          805
        ],
        "post_onset_count": 4,
        "T_cross_obs": 804,
        "cross_interval": [
          803,
          804
        ],
        "last_below_t": 803,
        "T_confirm": 805,
        "T_recovery_recognized": 805,
        "x_at_confirm": 34.0,
        "same_poll_cross_confirm": false,
        "crossings_cleared_preconfirm": 1,
        "label": "RECOVERED_CURRENT",
        "reason": "end_of_series_after_confirm",
        "cross_preceded_confirm": true,
        "episode_id": 1,
        "closed": true,
        "unrecovered_followup_polls": 0,
        "baseline_source_ts": [
          700,
          701,
          702,
          703,
          704,
          705,
          706,
          707
        ],
        "B1_audit": {
          "anchor": "T_cross_obs",
          "estimand": "crossing_anchored_retrospective_audit",
          "status": "VISIBLE_BUT_NOT_COMPUTED_IN_THIS_PACKET",
          "applies_even_if_historical": true
        }
      },
      "events": [
        {
          "kind": "ENTER_PENDING",
          "t": 800,
          "x": 24.0,
          "xmin": 24.0,
          "r50": 32.0,
          "B0": 40.0,
          "baseline_source_ts": [
            700,
            701,
            702,
            703,
            704,
            705,
            706,
            707
          ],
          "episode_id": 1
        },
        {
          "kind": "CROSS_OBS_RECORDED",
          "t": 802,
          "x": 38.0,
          "r50": 32.0,
          "interval": [
            800,
            802
          ],
          "state": "PENDING"
        },
        {
          "kind": "DEEPER_TROUGH_REVISE",
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        "codex_item": "refractory duration=1 poll; baseline STRICTLY_TRAILING_M recomputed; multi-episode"
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  "generated_at": "2026-09-10T02:07:25.617361+00:00"
}