{ "title": "M1-LONG selection funnel + research-only IPW sensitivity (origin\u22642019)", "version": "v2.2", "pack_id": "wave2b-m1-long-selection-ipw-v2.2", "generated_at": "2026-09-10T13:32:04.775654+00:00", "research_only": true, "label": "RESEARCH_ATTRITION_ADJUSTMENT", "score_authorized_M1": false, "L1_untouched": true, "changelog": [ { "version": "v1-buggy", "sha256": "fd25d065aad5b1e6fd2be0e2824b2d4c5eca6c45fa814f376564d8abb34b287b", "artifact": "m1long_v2_selection_ipw_sensitivity-v1-buggy.json", "hub_docs": "/docs/wave2b-m1-long-selection-ipw-v1-buggy.json", "bug": "share_strong_negative_miss incorrectly used (pago-pexp)>=2 on codes {1,3,5}, so strong==any_negative. Correct strong = Better(1)->Worse(5) ONLY = cell[1][5]." }, { "version": "v2", "fixes": [ "strong_negative_miss := cell PEXP=1,PAGO=5 only", "explicit completers vs IPW-eligible estimands", "OPEN notes: postweight categorical SMDs; overlap on retained only; 5pp/trunc exploratory" ], "response_to_review": "0a6e24af-2c88-450e-9ae0-81f4d2b79cd8" }, { "version": "v2.1", "adds": [ "full post-weight continuous+categorical SMDs vs eligible N1 for modeled SEX/EDUC/REGION/PAGO/PEXP (+ AGE/month_index, origin_year/month, METHOD)", "full eligible-cohort propensity overlap diagnostics (N1 all / retained / dropped + common-support heuristic)" ], "response_to_review": [ "0420513f-89f4-45da-b002-1ad0e945b562", "50fd44a2-6e2b-4fdf-8610-445558ed5deb", "decf348a / d8bffa5f hub relays" ] }, { "version": "v2.2", "adds": [ "paired-key joint mask for IDPREV/DATEPR (no independent dropna misalignment)", "strict unmatched-weight error (fail-closed; removed default (1,1,1) fallback)", "truncation_predeclared renamed to truncation_exploratory (history-preserving)" ], "preserves": "v2.1 numerical outputs unchanged on successful path; v2.1 artifacts retained", "response_to_review": [ "689c7bc9-0f58-407c-9330-952099feb0f4", "e51944ed-d878-4afa-8c93-fbf3bfc35867", "astra:8bfe3017-eaba-4e47-a258-91b33f46249d" ] } ], "open_review_points": { "postweight_balance_AGE_month_only": "ADDRESSED in v2.1 \u2014 post-weight continuous SMDs for AGE/month_index plus full categorical level SMDs for modeled SEX/EDUC/REGION/PAGO/PEXP (and origin_year/month/METHOD) vs eligible N1 are published.", "overlap_retained_not_all_eligible": "ADDRESSED in v2.1 \u2014 overlap diagnostics now cover full eligible N1, retained, and dropped propensity summaries plus a common-support heuristic.", "estimand_completers_vs_ipw_eligible": "ADDRESSED in v2 wording \u2014 unweighted 3\u00d73 is completers (N3); IPW targets eligible cohort (N1) via observed-covariate attrition adjustment.", "five_pp_thresholds_and_truncation": "OPEN/EXPLORATORY \u2014 5pp share-move and 1\u201399/5\u201395 truncation labeled exploratory absent a timestamped predeclared protocol artifact.", "independent_replication": "OPEN \u2014 Claude/Codex independent source replication still required; ChatGPT formal /research credential path still blocked (use Claude private channel or James-approved transfer).", "missing_covariates_sda": "OPEN \u2014 income/employment/party/HHsize absent from pilot extract; SDA re-extract required; no proxies invented." }, "response_to": [ "0420513f-89f4-45da-b002-1ad0e945b562", "50fd44a2-6e2b-4fdf-8610-445558ed5deb", "0a6e24af-2c88-450e-9ae0-81f4d2b79cd8", "4d425973-1c56-4f58-955c-199c12fffd2b", "452be9e1-e330-459a-9885-e413dc9196fa", "astra:8a1b5844-0d4f-4215-a926-432bd572816b", "prior_diag:54396241-9636-4773-9f13-ee4ff8a06ee8" ], "funnel": { "label": "authorized_origin_le2019_funnel_v2", "target_population_estimand": "TWO DISTINCT research estimands (do not conflate): (A) Completers / retained-pair estimand \u2014 unweighted 3\u00d73 among N3=1424 usable ~12m same-person chains with origin in 201810\u2013201912 (Michigan SCA fresh-cell). (B) IPW eligible-cohort estimand \u2014 RESEARCH_ATTRITION_ADJUSTMENT that reweights retained completers toward the N1 eligible origin cohort (valid PEXP) using observed covariates only. Neither is a US adult population statement.", "manageability_definition_note": "5pp absolute share-move and truncation bands (1\u201399 / 5\u201395) are labeled EXPLORATORY unless a timestamped predeclared protocol artifact exists. No such protocol timestamp was located at v2 publish; treat thresholds as exploratory sensitivity flags, not confirmatory gate criteria.", "manageability_definition_predeclared": "EXPLORATORY sensitivity flags (not confirmatory): (i) funnel stages reproducible; (ii) IPW ESS / N_retained >= 0.50 under truncation bands; (iii) post-weight |SMD| on modeled covariates mostly <0.20; (iv) 3x3 shares move <5pp absolute under IPW vs unweighted. Manageability \u2260 population validity; unmeasured selection remains possible. See manageability_definition_note.", "stages_mutually_exclusive": [ { "stage": "A_source_cohort_invalid_or_missing_origin_PEXP", "description": "Fresh SAMPLE in window with PEXP not in {1,3,5} (DK/refusal/other). Preceding source-cohort accounting \u2014 NOT double-counted inside N1=5793.", "n": 164, "of_base": "fresh_any_in_window", "base_n": 5957 }, { "stage": "B_missing_second_interview_or_reint2_linkage_failure", "description": "N1 keys that never appear as (IDPREV,DATEPR) of SAMPLE\u2208{2,4,7}. Do not label all of this 'attrition' alone \u2014 mixes nonresponse, design, linkage.", "n": 2983, "of_base": "N1", "base_n": 5793 }, { "stage": "C_missing_third_interview_or_unusable_pair", "description": "Reached N2 but not in published usable 11\u201313m pairs (linkage/gap/PAGO/chain).", "n": 1386, "of_base": "N2", "base_n": 2810 }, { "stage": "D_retained_usable_pair_N3", "description": "Published v2 authorized pairs (gap 11\u201313).", "n": 1424, "of_base": "N1", "base_n": 5793 } ], "cross_check_attr_json": { "N_fresh_any": 5957, "N_invalid_pexp": 164, "N1": 5793, "N2": 2810, "N3": 1424, "attr_file_N1": 5793, "attr_file_N2": 2810, "attr_file_N3": 1424, "N1_plus_invalid_equals_fresh_any": true, "B_plus_C_plus_D_equals_N1": true }, "unknown_reasons_flag": "Within B and C, extract lacks disposition codes distinguishing refusal vs unable-to-contact vs design skip vs item loss. Those remain UNKNOWN \u2014 not invented.", "idprev2_note": "IDPREV2/DATEPR2 blank in extract; chains use IDPREV/DATEPR only." }, "official_labels": { "SEX": { "official_labels": { "1": "Male", "2": "Female", "8": "DK (not observed in extract)", "9": "NA/refused (not observed in extract)" }, "codes_present_in_extract": [ "1", "2" ], "dk_refusal_codes_8_9_present": [], "note": "Substantive analysis uses {1,3,5} for PEXP/PAGO; 8/9 are DK/refusal \u2014 not midpoints." }, "EDUC": { "official_labels": { "1": "Grade 0-8 / no HS", "2": "High school incomplete", "3": "High school graduate", "4": "Some college", "5": "College degree", "6": "Graduate study", "8": "DK", "9": "NA/refused", " ": "Blank/missing in extract" }, "codes_present_in_extract": [ "1", "2", "3", "4", "5", "6", "" ], "dk_refusal_codes_8_9_present": [], "note": "Substantive analysis uses {1,3,5} for PEXP/PAGO; 8/9 are DK/refusal \u2014 not midpoints." }, "PEXP": { "official_labels": { "1": "Better a year from now", "3": "Same", "5": "Worse a year from now", "8": "DK", "9": "NA/refused" }, "codes_present_in_extract": [ "1", "3", "5", "8", "9" ], "dk_refusal_codes_8_9_present": [ "8", "9" ], "note": "Substantive analysis uses {1,3,5} for PEXP/PAGO; 8/9 are DK/refusal \u2014 not midpoints." }, "PAGO": { "official_labels": { "1": "Better than a year ago", "3": "Same", "5": "Worse than a year ago", "8": "DK", "9": "NA/refused" }, "codes_present_in_extract": [ "1", "3", "5", "8", "9" ], "dk_refusal_codes_8_9_present": [ "8", "9" ], "note": "Substantive analysis uses {1,3,5} for PEXP/PAGO; 8/9 are DK/refusal \u2014 not midpoints." } }, "unavailable_covariates": { "income": "NOT in pilot extract \u2014 re-extract from SDA required", "employment": "NOT in pilot extract \u2014 re-extract from SDA required", "party_id": "NOT in pilot extract \u2014 re-extract from SDA required", "household_size": "NOT in pilot extract \u2014 re-extract from SDA required", "finance_beyond_PAGO_PEXP": "ICS present but not used as income proxy", "note": "No proxies invented. REGION/AGE/SEX/EDUC/PAGO/PEXP/METHOD available." }, "pre_adjustment_balance": { "continuous": { "AGE": { "retained": { "n": 1407, "missing": 17, "mean": 55.3866382373845, "std": 16.354615515133332 }, "dropped": { "n": 4320, "missing": 49, "mean": 48.12430555555556, "std": 16.746355935514206 }, "std_diff_retained_minus_dropped": 0.43876803818569093 }, "month_index": { "retained": { "n": 1424, "missing": 0, "mean": 24233.405898876405, "std": 4.066505321547535 }, "dropped": { "n": 4369, "missing": 0, "mean": 24232.764248111696, "std": 4.340824803121353 }, "std_diff_retained_minus_dropped": 0.15255960420537223 }, "YYYYMM_raw_numeric_NOT_interval": { "retained": { "n": 1424, "missing": 0, "mean": 201892.92275280898, "std": 33.393220418657066 }, "dropped": { "n": 4369, "missing": 0, "mean": 201885.18631265734, "std": 39.82207550127374 }, "std_diff_retained_minus_dropped": 0.21052395695720677, "warning": "YYYYMM as integer is NOT a real time index (201812\u2192201901 jumps +89). Use month_index." } }, "categorical": { "SEX": { "retained": { "n": 1424, "missing": 0, "proportions": { "1": 0.6671348314606742, "2": 0.33286516853932585 }, "counts": { "1": 950, "2": 474 } }, "dropped": { "n": 4369, "missing": 0, "proportions": { "1": 0.6054016937514305, "2": 0.39459830624856945 }, "counts": { "1": 2645, "2": 1724 } }, "level_diffs": { "1": { "prop_retained": 0.6671348314606742, "prop_dropped": 0.6054016937514305, "diff": 0.06173313770924371, "std_diff": 0.12858887892046725, "label": "Male" }, "2": { "prop_retained": 0.33286516853932585, "prop_dropped": 0.39459830624856945, "diff": -0.0617331377092436, "std_diff": -0.128588878920467, "label": "Female" } } }, "EDUC": { "retained": { "n": 1422, "missing": 2, "proportions": { "1": 0.009142053445850914, "2": 0.013361462728551337, "3": 0.12728551336146274, "4": 0.270042194092827, "5": 0.30168776371308015, "6": 0.27848101265822783 }, "counts": { "1": 13, "2": 19, "3": 181, "4": 384, "5": 429, "6": 396 } }, "dropped": { "n": 4337, "missing": 32, "proportions": { "1": 0.01660133732995158, "2": 0.02813004380908462, "3": 0.19114595342402582, "4": 0.2819921604795942, "5": 0.29006225501498734, "6": 0.19206824994235647 }, "counts": { "1": 72, "2": 122, "3": 829, "4": 1223, "5": 1258, "6": 833 } }, "level_diffs": { "1": { "prop_retained": 0.009142053445850914, "prop_dropped": 0.01660133732995158, "diff": -0.0074592838841006665, "std_diff": -0.0662110254595153, "label": "Grade 0-8 / no HS" }, "2": { "prop_retained": 0.013361462728551337, "prop_dropped": 0.02813004380908462, "diff": -0.014768581080533283, "std_diff": -0.10375524405477822, "label": "High school incomplete" }, "3": { "prop_retained": 0.12728551336146274, "prop_dropped": 0.19114595342402582, "diff": -0.06386044006256308, "std_diff": -0.17520914707245705, "label": "High school graduate" }, "4": { "prop_retained": 0.270042194092827, "prop_dropped": 0.2819921604795942, "diff": -0.011949966386767208, "std_diff": -0.026734575635908652, "label": "Some college" }, "5": { "prop_retained": 0.30168776371308015, "prop_dropped": 0.29006225501498734, "diff": 0.011625508698092812, "std_diff": 0.025472300196800635, "label": "College degree" }, "6": { "prop_retained": 0.27848101265822783, "prop_dropped": 0.19206824994235647, "diff": 0.08641276271587137, "std_diff": 0.2047870093492796, "label": "Graduate study" } } }, "REGION": { "retained": { "n": 1424, "missing": 0, "proportions": { "1": 0.2535112359550562, "2": 0.26264044943820225, "3": 0.13412921348314608, "4": 0.3497191011235955 }, "counts": { "1": 361, "2": 374, "3": 191, "4": 498 } }, "dropped": { "n": 4369, "missing": 0, "proportions": { "1": 0.22888532845044632, "2": 0.25223163195239184, "3": 0.14305333028152895, "4": 0.37582970931563286 }, "counts": { "1": 1000, "2": 1102, "3": 625, "4": 1642 } }, "level_diffs": { "1": { "prop_retained": 0.2535112359550562, "prop_dropped": 0.22888532845044632, "diff": 0.024625907504609884, "std_diff": 0.057586533691510476, "label": null }, "2": { 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"prop_dropped": 0.5518425268940261, "diff": -0.023050392062565428, "std_diff": -0.04626376395515954, "label": "Better than a year ago" }, "3": { "prop_retained": 0.28019662921348315, "prop_dropped": 0.24834058136873427, "diff": 0.03185604784474888, "std_diff": 0.07229245826399659, "label": "Same" }, "5": { "prop_retained": 0.19101123595505617, "prop_dropped": 0.19844357976653695, "diff": -0.007432343811480779, "std_diff": -0.018769811701344997, "label": "Worse than a year ago" }, "8": { "prop_retained": 0.0, "prop_dropped": 0.0011444266422522317, "diff": -0.0011444266422522317, "std_diff": -0.04786936087266541, "label": "DK" }, "9": { "prop_retained": 0.0, "prop_dropped": 0.00022888532845044633, "diff": -0.00022888532845044633, "std_diff": -0.021398024625545648, "label": "NA/refused" } } }, "PEXP": { "retained": { "n": 1424, "missing": 0, "proportions": { "1": 0.3785112359550562, "3": 0.5042134831460674, "5": 0.1172752808988764 }, "counts": { "1": 539, "3": 718, "5": 167 } }, "dropped": { "n": 4369, "missing": 0, "proportions": { "1": 0.44884412909132526, "3": 0.4648661020828565, "5": 0.08628976882581826 }, "counts": { "1": 1961, "3": 2031, "5": 377 } }, "level_diffs": { "1": { "prop_retained": 0.3785112359550562, "prop_dropped": 0.44884412909132526, "diff": -0.07033289313626906, "std_diff": -0.14317566936296086, "label": "Better a year from now" }, "3": { "prop_retained": 0.5042134831460674, "prop_dropped": 0.4648661020828565, "diff": 0.039347381063210896, "std_diff": 0.0787934847794486, "label": "Same" }, "5": { "prop_retained": 0.1172752808988764, "prop_dropped": 0.08628976882581826, "diff": 0.030985512073058136, "std_diff": 0.10261295046232334, "label": "Worse a year from now" } } }, "origin_year": { "retained": { "n": 1424, "missing": 0, "proportions": { "2018": 0.14185393258426968, "2019": 0.8581460674157303 }, "counts": { "2018": 202, "2019": 1222 } }, "dropped": { "n": 4369, "missing": 0, "proportions": { "2018": 0.22247653925383382, "2019": 0.7775234607461662 }, "counts": { "2018": 972, "2019": 3397 } }, "level_diffs": { "2018": { "prop_retained": 0.14185393258426968, "prop_dropped": 0.22247653925383382, "diff": -0.08062260666956414, "std_diff": -0.2100258895486432, "label": null }, "2019": { "prop_retained": 0.8581460674157303, "prop_dropped": 0.7775234607461662, "diff": 0.08062260666956411, "std_diff": 0.21002588954864312, "label": null } } }, "origin_month": { "retained": { "n": 1424, "missing": 0, "proportions": { "1": 0.0702247191011236, "2": 0.06811797752808989, "3": 0.0800561797752809, "4": 0.0723314606741573, "5": 0.07654494382022473, "6": 0.0723314606741573, "7": 0.06741573033707865, "8": 0.07654494382022473, "9": 0.06952247191011236, "10": 0.10112359550561797, "11": 0.1151685393258427, "12": 0.1306179775280899 }, "counts": { "1": 100, "2": 97, "3": 114, "4": 103, "5": 109, "6": 103, "7": 96, "8": 109, "9": 99, "10": 144, "11": 164, "12": 186 } }, "dropped": { "n": 4369, "missing": 0, "proportions": { "1": 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"prop_retained_ipw_stabilized": 0.06846539011952457, "smd_unweighted_vs_eligible": 0.035010969713124285, "smd_ipw_vs_eligible": 0.0038541607898780624, "abs_smd_unweighted": 0.035010969713124285, "abs_smd_ipw": 0.0038541607898780624 }, "9": { "label": null, "prop_eligible": 0.06663214224063525, "prop_retained_unweighted": 0.06952247191011236, "prop_retained_ipw_stabilized": 0.0638352145710525, "smd_unweighted_vs_eligible": 0.011475282921549328, "smd_ipw_vs_eligible": -0.011326630608558716, "abs_smd_unweighted": 0.011475282921549328, "abs_smd_ipw": 0.011326630608558716 }, "10": { "label": null, "prop_eligible": 0.13430001726221302, "prop_retained_unweighted": 0.10112359550561797, "prop_retained_ipw_stabilized": 0.10325865642833373, "smd_unweighted_vs_eligible": -0.10308379501986505, "smd_ipw_vs_eligible": -0.09605683902494595, "abs_smd_unweighted": 0.10308379501986505, "abs_smd_ipw": 0.09605683902494595 }, "11": { "label": null, "prop_eligible": 0.1306749525289142, "prop_retained_unweighted": 0.1151685393258427, "prop_retained_ipw_stabilized": 0.10708884746374653, "smd_unweighted_vs_eligible": -0.04723880777601361, "smd_ipw_vs_eligible": -0.0729238851563168, "abs_smd_unweighted": 0.04723880777601361, "abs_smd_ipw": 0.0729238851563168 }, "12": { "label": null, "prop_eligible": 0.12843086483687208, "prop_retained_unweighted": 0.1306179775280899, "prop_retained_ipw_stabilized": 0.13161438119465485, "smd_unweighted_vs_eligible": 0.006513573798324204, "smd_ipw_vs_eligible": 0.009465607857050851, "abs_smd_unweighted": 0.006513573798324204, "abs_smd_ipw": 0.009465607857050851 } }, "max_abs_smd_unweighted": 0.10308379501986505, "max_abs_smd_ipw": 0.09605683902494595, "n_levels_abs_smd_ipw_ge_0_10": 0, "n_levels_abs_smd_ipw_ge_0_20": 0 }, "METHOD": { "modeled_in_logit": false, "eligible_n": 5793, "eligible_missing": 0, "retained_n": 1424, "retained_missing": 0, "levels": { "1": { "label": null, "prop_eligible": 1.0, "prop_retained_unweighted": 1.0, "prop_retained_ipw_stabilized": 1.0, "smd_unweighted_vs_eligible": null, "smd_ipw_vs_eligible": null, "abs_smd_unweighted": null, "abs_smd_ipw": null } }, "max_abs_smd_unweighted": null, "max_abs_smd_ipw": null, "n_levels_abs_smd_ipw_ge_0_10": 0, "n_levels_abs_smd_ipw_ge_0_20": 0 } }, "summary": { "comparison": "retained (unweighted and IPW-stabilized) vs full eligible N1", "smd_thresholds_note": ".10/.20 descriptive flags only \u2014 not confirmatory validity gates", "continuous_max_abs_smd_ipw": 0.014317456880071671, "modeled_categorical_max_abs_smd_ipw": 0.041565761254168825, "modeled_categorical_n_levels_abs_smd_ipw_ge_0_10": 0, "modeled_categorical_n_levels_abs_smd_ipw_ge_0_20": 0, "exploratory_flag_mostly_under_0_20": true } }, "overlap_full_eligible": { "scope": "full_eligible_N1_plus_retained_and_dropped_splits", "propensity_clip_used_for_weights": [ 0.05, 0.95 ], "eligible_all": { "label": "eligible_N1", "n": 5793, "min": 0.031017024092055524, "p1": 0.06716982004897987, "p5": 0.10066391941557765, "p25": 0.16953274937915724, "median": 0.23083757707832803, "p75": 0.30956319956855954, "p95": 0.43819519495501735, "p99": 0.5193757427806686, "max": 0.6536126888991768, "mean": 0.2458149065360928, "std": 0.10331206304670121, "share_below_0_05": 0.0017262213015708614, "share_below_0_10": 0.04867944070429829, "share_above_0_90": 0.0 }, "retained": { "label": "retained_N3", "n": 1424, "min": 0.06291664871228361, "p1": 0.09553134767703628, "p5": 0.13413912378166387, "p25": 0.20918900376039676, "median": 0.2771884961870045, "p75": 0.3643335571979578, "p95": 0.4760152615361055, "p99": 0.5584354899676034, "max": 0.6536126888991768, "mean": 0.2893396471199711, "std": 0.10653046645280266, "share_below_0_05": 0.0, "share_below_0_10": 0.012640449438202247, "share_above_0_90": 0.0 }, "dropped": { "label": "dropped_N1_minus_N3", "n": 4369, "min": 0.031017024092055524, "p1": 0.06474134020738548, "p5": 0.09431568960769285, "p25": 0.16005222274106473, "median": 0.21634984850160208, "p75": 0.29067705181319226, "p95": 0.41532234125972983, "p99": 0.5023444096160001, "max": 0.6003811890588057, "mean": 0.23162876998506446, "std": 0.09816785158776384, "share_below_0_05": 0.0022888532845044634, "share_below_0_10": 0.06042572671091783, "share_above_0_90": 0.0 }, "common_support": { "retained_p_range": [ 0.06291664871228361, 0.6536126888991768 ], "share_eligible_inside_retained_range": 0.9936129811841878, "share_dropped_inside_retained_range": 0.9915312428473335, "share_eligible_outside_retained_range": 0.006387018815812187, "note": "Common-support heuristic only: fraction of eligible propensity scores falling inside the observed retained min\u2013max. Not a proof of ignorable selection." }, "histogram_eligible_10bins": { "edges": [ 0.0, 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9, 1.0 ], "counts": [ 282, 1907, 2009, 1075, 428, 88, 4, 0, 0, 0 ] } }, "overlap_note": "ADDRESSED v2.1: full eligible N1 p_hat min=0.0310 max=0.6536 mean=0.2458; retained min=0.0629 max=0.6536 mean=0.2893; share_eligible_inside_retained_range=0.9936.", "postweight_balance_scope": "ADDRESSED v2.1: continuous AGE/month_index SMDs + full categorical level SMDs for modeled SEX/EDUC/REGION/PAGO/PEXP (plus origin_year/month/METHOD) vs eligible N1." }, "three_by_three_pexp_pago": { "unweighted": { "label": "unweighted", "share_match": 0.46558988764044945, "share_any_negative_miss": 0.26825842696629215, "share_strong_negative_miss": 0.07373595505617977, "share_strong_negative_miss_definition": "Better(1)->Worse(5) ONLY; equals cell shares[1][5]", "share_favorable_surprise": 0.2661516853932584, "detail": { "counts": { "1": { "1": 342, "3": 92, "5": 105 }, "3": { "1": 288, "3": 245, "5": 185 }, "5": { "1": 35, "3": 56, "5": 76 } }, "shares": { "1": { "1": 0.2401685393258427, "3": 0.06460674157303371, "5": 0.07373595505617977 }, "3": { "1": 0.20224719101123595, "3": 0.1720505617977528, "5": 0.12991573033707865 }, "5": { "1": 0.02457865168539326, "3": 0.03932584269662921, "5": 0.05337078651685393 } }, "n": 1424 } }, "ipw_stabilized": { "label": "ipw_stabilized_RESEARCH_ATTRITION_ADJUSTMENT", "share_match": 0.47550803034110256, "share_any_negative_miss": 0.277778018826743, "share_strong_negative_miss": 0.08653530665223409, "share_strong_negative_miss_definition": "Better(1)->Worse(5) ONLY; equals cell shares[1][5]", "share_favorable_surprise": 0.2467139508321543, "detail": { "weighted_mass": { "1": { "1": 472.60547147488035, "3": 116.23336898982518, "5": 144.3304261577329 }, "3": { "1": 327.1576935583366, "3": 247.49056449843403, "5": 202.7363465580068 }, "5": { "1": 35.59072282222521, "3": 48.740616711614685, "5": 72.99385202309783 } }, "shares": { "1": { "1": 0.2833571582121409, "3": 0.06968932675196635, "5": 0.08653530665223409 }, "3": { "1": 0.19615192783238009, "3": 0.14838639684331767, "5": 0.12155338542254254 }, "5": { "1": 0.02133891096552349, "3": 0.029223112034250744, "5": 0.043764475285644006 } }, "n_effective_mass": 1667.8790627941537 } }, "ipw_trunc_1_99": { "label": "ipw_trunc_1_99_RESEARCH_ATTRITION_ADJUSTMENT", "share_match": 0.4755898076424303, "share_any_negative_miss": 0.2775835039974027, "share_strong_negative_miss": 0.08643800303592616, "share_strong_negative_miss_definition": "Better(1)->Worse(5) ONLY; equals cell shares[1][5]", "share_favorable_surprise": 0.24682668836016677, "detail": { "weighted_mass": { "1": { "1": 468.6721362615422, "3": 115.95334016033927, "5": 143.4537828827516 }, "3": { "1": 325.1682763090988, "3": 247.5490261432091, "5": 201.27454839402336 }, "5": { "1": 35.601662604952466, "3": 48.86726831031349, "5": 73.07468676509156 } }, "shares": { "1": { "1": 0.2823981544644237, "3": 0.06986762542886062, "5": 0.08643800303592616 }, "3": { "1": 0.19592997751593094, "3": 0.14916053828149034, "5": 0.12127787553261593 }, "5": { "1": 0.02145176347734298, "3": 0.029444947366892855, "5": 0.04403111489651629 } }, "n_effective_mass": 1659.6147278313222 } }, "ipw_trunc_5_95": { "label": "ipw_trunc_5_95_RESEARCH_ATTRITION_ADJUSTMENT", "share_match": 0.47294101390412163, "share_any_negative_miss": 0.2781229713153588, "share_strong_negative_miss": 0.08582489254911367, "share_strong_negative_miss_definition": "Better(1)->Worse(5) ONLY; equals cell shares[1][5]", "share_favorable_surprise": 0.2489360147805195, "detail": { "weighted_mass": { "1": { "1": 450.5790051919295, "3": 113.05237323911224, "5": 139.81595606117102 }, "3": { "1": 320.69577775616807, "3": 246.76742266212898, "5": 200.21734295707296 }, "5": { "1": 35.691369607657045, "3": 49.15052207955572, "5": 73.11419324959381 } }, "shares": { "1": { "1": 0.2765842740335369, "3": 0.0693962839364633, "5": 0.08582489254911367 }, "3": { "1": 0.19685650652659162, "3": 0.1514761843443175, "5": 0.1229017948297818 }, "5": { "1": 0.021908858243387327, "3": 0.030170650010540565, "5": 0.0448805555262672 } }, "n_effective_mass": 1629.0839628043896 } } }, "replication_artifacts": { "raw_extract": "data/raw/michigan_sca/microdata/sca_micro_2015_2023_pilot.csv", "raw_sha256": "8f74769178d2918818906ac41a99d795131af4592b17beefa4b1d2ef05771dcf", "pairs_v2": "data/m1/v2/m1long_pairs_origin_le2019.csv", "scripts": [ "srp/m1/build_m1_long_pilot.py", "srp/m1/build_m1_long_v2.py", "srp/m1/build_m1_long_selection_diag.py", "srp/m1/build_m1_long_selection_ipw_v2.py" ], "private_transfer": "Raw microdata stays on private box; Hub publishes hashes+scripts+JSON only. Claude/Codex can replicate from SDA download recipe in PROVENANCE.md + these scripts. ChatGPT formal /research still blocked on consumer credential \u2014 use Claude private channel or James-approved private transfer; do not publish secrets.", "source_urls": [ "https://sda.umsurvey.org/", "https://sda.umsurvey.org/sca/Doc/sca0001.htm" ] }, "research_verdict": { "status": "RESEARCH_IN_PROGRESS", "proposed_criteria_from_astra": { "PASS": "reproducible and selection manageable with stable sensitivity", "CONDITIONAL": "selected estimates/weights unstable", "FAIL": "linkage fails or inference unsupported" }, "codex_qualification": "Stability under one observed-variable adjustment is NOT proof of population validity; unmeasured selection remains possible.", "this_tick": { "funnel_reproducible_crosscheck": true, "mcfadden_pseudo_r2": 0.05253827781431086, "age_smd_pre": 0.43876803818569093, "ipw_ess_over_n_stabilized": 0.8279711186526653, "ipw_ess_over_n_trunc_5_95": 0.8728775432219646, "3x3_match_unweighted": 0.46558988764044945, "3x3_match_ipw_stab": 0.47550803034110256, "3x3_match_delta_pp": 0.991814270065311, "decision_now": "CONDITIONAL_RESEARCH \u2014 v2.2 source hardening only (joint mask + fail-closed weights + exploratory metadata); numerical path unchanged; independent methods adjudication pending; no production adoption; M1 UNKNOWN score_authorized=0" }, "model_change": false, "score_authorized_M1": false, "L1_untouched": true } }