{
  "meta": {
    "selection_rule": "Mechanical closest-to-empirical-quantile among years with 12 monthly gaps. NOT event-picked; NOT Phase/Alert/political selected.",
    "generated_at": "2026-09-09T04:08:33.635269+00:00",
    "preferred_overlap_n": 47,
    "preferred_pearson_r": 0.410315
  },
  "a1_quantile_years_full12": {
    "p10": {
      "year": 2018,
      "value": -26.0833,
      "target_quantile_value": -26.1208,
      "rank_rule": "closest annual mean to empirical p; ties earlier year"
    },
    "p25": {
      "year": 2014,
      "value": -23.2833,
      "target_quantile_value": -23.4708,
      "rank_rule": "closest annual mean to empirical p; ties earlier year"
    },
    "p50": {
      "year": 1991,
      "value": -18.5167,
      "target_quantile_value": -18.1875,
      "rank_rule": "closest annual mean to empirical p; ties earlier year"
    },
    "p75": {
      "year": 1997,
      "value": -14.0,
      "target_quantile_value": -13.8542,
      "rank_rule": "closest annual mean to empirical p; ties earlier year"
    },
    "p90": {
      "year": 2023,
      "value": -8.1083,
      "target_quantile_value": -7.7483,
      "rank_rule": "closest annual mean to empirical p; ties earlier year"
    }
  },
  "a2_quantile_years_full12": {
    "p10": {
      "year": 2014,
      "value": 3.3333,
      "target_quantile_value": 3.3,
      "rank_rule": "closest annual mean to empirical p; ties earlier year"
    },
    "p25": {
      "year": 2016,
      "value": 5.3333,
      "target_quantile_value": 5.1667,
      "rank_rule": "closest annual mean to empirical p; ties earlier year"
    },
    "p50": {
      "year": 1985,
      "value": 13.1667,
      "target_quantile_value": 13.1667,
      "rank_rule": "closest annual mean to empirical p; ties earlier year"
    },
    "p75": {
      "year": 1982,
      "value": 21.0,
      "target_quantile_value": 20.7083,
      "rank_rule": "closest annual mean to empirical p; ties earlier year"
    },
    "p90": {
      "year": 2011,
      "value": 30.1667,
      "target_quantile_value": 30.1667,
      "rank_rule": "closest annual mean to empirical p; ties earlier year"
    }
  },
  "a1_details": {
    "p10": {
      "year": 2018,
      "value": -26.0833,
      "target_quantile_value": -26.1208,
      "rank_rule": "closest annual mean to empirical p; ties earlier year",
      "n_months": 12,
      "ice_mean": 88.1833,
      "icc_mean": 114.2667,
      "a1_annual_mean": -26.0833
    },
    "p25": {
      "year": 2014,
      "value": -23.2833,
      "target_quantile_value": -23.4708,
      "rank_rule": "closest annual mean to empirical p; ties earlier year",
      "n_months": 12,
      "ice_mean": 75.0167,
      "icc_mean": 98.3,
      "a1_annual_mean": -23.2833
    },
    "p50": {
      "year": 1991,
      "value": -18.5167,
      "target_quantile_value": -18.1875,
      "rank_rule": "closest annual mean to empirical p; ties earlier year",
      "n_months": 12,
      "ice_mean": 70.3167,
      "icc_mean": 88.8333,
      "a1_annual_mean": -18.5167
    },
    "p75": {
      "year": 1997,
      "value": -14.0,
      "target_quantile_value": -13.8542,
      "rank_rule": "closest annual mean to empirical p; ties earlier year",
      "n_months": 12,
      "ice_mean": 97.7167,
      "icc_mean": 111.7167,
      "a1_annual_mean": -14.0
    },
    "p90": {
      "year": 2023,
      "value": -8.1083,
      "target_quantile_value": -7.7483,
      "rank_rule": "closest annual mean to empirical p; ties earlier year",
      "n_months": 12,
      "ice_mean": 62.1667,
      "icc_mean": 70.275,
      "a1_annual_mean": -8.1083
    }
  },
  "a2_details": {
    "p10": {
      "year": 2014,
      "value": 3.3333,
      "target_quantile_value": 3.3,
      "rank_rule": "closest annual mean to empirical p; ties earlier year",
      "n_months": 12,
      "pago_mean": 106.8333,
      "pexp_lag12_mean": 110.1667,
      "a2_annual_mean": 3.3333
    },
    "p25": {
      "year": 2016,
      "value": 5.3333,
      "target_quantile_value": 5.1667,
      "rank_rule": "closest annual mean to empirical p; ties earlier year",
      "n_months": 12,
      "pago_mean": 118.1667,
      "pexp_lag12_mean": 123.5,
      "a2_annual_mean": 5.3333
    },
    "p50": {
      "year": 1985,
      "value": 13.1667,
      "target_quantile_value": 13.1667,
      "rank_rule": "closest annual mean to empirical p; ties earlier year",
      "n_months": 12,
      "pago_mean": 114.9167,
      "pexp_lag12_mean": 128.0833,
      "a2_annual_mean": 13.1667
    },
    "p75": {
      "year": 1982,
      "value": 21.0,
      "target_quantile_value": 20.7083,
      "rank_rule": "closest annual mean to empirical p; ties earlier year",
      "n_months": 12,
      "pago_mean": 90.25,
      "pexp_lag12_mean": 111.25,
      "a2_annual_mean": 21.0
    },
    "p90": {
      "year": 2011,
      "value": 30.1667,
      "target_quantile_value": 30.1667,
      "rank_rule": "closest annual mean to empirical p; ties earlier year",
      "n_months": 12,
      "pago_mean": 79.8333,
      "pexp_lag12_mean": 110.0,
      "a2_annual_mean": 30.1667
    }
  }
}