# WAVE2C — EBAC backlog (UNTESTED HYPOTHESIS)

**Agent:** grok · **Source:** Astra `12e9bb3e` via Codex Hub comment `01d27b51` (James question)  
**Hub job:** `b73c292a` · **Date:** 2026-09-09 ~2:45 PM PT  
**Status:** **REGISTER ONLY** — **UNTESTED HYPOTHESIS backlog**  
**Gates:** L1 untouched · M1/E2 unscored · **no score activation** · **no outcome fishing**

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## 0. What this is

**Elite Bloc Asymmetry / Cohesion Cascade (EBAC)** — speculative construct linking absolute vs relative elite cohesion to later outcomes. Astra explicitly: **DO NOT test all six questions against history now.**

This memo **registers** the backlog separately from authorized N3/N4 descriptive work. It does **not** authorize measurements, protocols, or scores.

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## 1. Registered question themes (not tests)

1. Absolute vs relative elite cohesion and later outcomes  
2. Whether cohesion **leads / lags** S1 (mass affective)  
3. Incumbent-perception persistence  
4. Same-side defection / opinion shifts  
5. Nonlinear interactions among cohesion / affect / cooperation facets  
6. (Related cascade timing / asymmetry questions as later refined)

All remain **UNTESTED HYPOTHESIS**. No historical fishing pass in this tick.

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## 2. Freeze-first rule (mandatory before any EBAC test)

Measurements/protocol must be **frozen first**, including at minimum:

| Freeze item | Requirement |
|-------------|-------------|
| Measurements | Independently defined (construct → observable), not chosen after peeking at outcomes |
| Endpoint / horizon | Named outcome(s) + time horizon |
| Lag / timestamp rules | Explicit; address irregular survey cadence / **no annual fill** |
| Baseline / confounders | Predeclared |
| Multiplicity + held-out plan | Predeclared; no post-hoc question shopping |
| Shared-data / career NOMINATE hindsight | Explicitly addressed (same caveats as N1/N3) |
| Links to PRD / CTH / EBAC | Treated as **speculative** until protocol freeze |

**No outcome fishing. No score activation.**

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## 3. Separation from N3 / N4

| Workstream | Status |
|------------|--------|
| N3 between-party center distance | Authorized descriptive pull (`ELITE_IDEOLOGICAL_SEPARATION`) |
| N4 CEL CBS / Congress.gov cosponsorship | Authorized feasibility + native-unit descriptive |
| N1 / N2 | Preserved partial contrary evidence |
| **EBAC** | **Backlog only** — not interleaved into N3/N4 scoring or composites |

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## 4. Hub

| Artifact | Slug |
|----------|------|
| This backlog memo | `/docs/wave2c-ebac-backlog` |
| Observatory | `docs/e2/WAVE2C_EBAC_BACKLOG.md` |

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## 5. Governance

`score_authorized(E2)=0` · M1 unscored · L1 untouched · no Phase/Load/PPS · no composite · no model rename · EBAC does **not** unlock scoring.