# WAVE2C S1 — Evidence pull status

**Date:** 2026-09-09 ~10:19 AM PT  
**Job / research:** Hub `b73c292a` · research `176909d6`  
**Mode:** RESEARCH ONLY — **no scoring**, **no thresholds**, **no formula freeze**, **L1/M1 production untouched**  
**Hub mirror/comment:** Posted — `/docs/wave2c-s1-evidence-pull-status` + job `b73c292a` comments; research `176909d6` handoff EVIDENCE_READY→REVIEW (Astra)

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## Landed

### ANES (`data/raw/anes/`)

| Artifact | Status |
|----------|--------|
| CDF CSV zip `anes_timeseries_cdf_csv_20260205.zip` (2026-02-05 release) | **Landed** (~21 MB; public URL, **no login**) |
| Minimal extract `extracts/anes_cdf_s1_minimal_pid_ft.csv` | **Landed** (73,745 rows; PID + party/people FTs + weights + mode + year) |
| Codebooks (var + app + varlist) + SDA thermometer HTML | **Landed** |
| `PROVENANCE.md` + `SHA256SUMS.txt` | **Landed** |

Public download box paths (CSV/STATA/SPSS) work without credentials per current ANES FAQ (“login eliminated”).

### Pew (`data/raw/pew_affective/`)

| Artifact | Status |
|----------|--------|
| 2019 Partisan Antipathy topline PDF | **Landed** |
| 2019 full Parties/Antipathy report PDF | **Landed** |
| 2025 Political Typology topline PDF (THERMREP/THERMDEM trend through Nov 2025) | **Landed** |
| pdftotext layouts + two CSV table extracts (overall bins + partisan cold/warm shares) | **Landed** |
| `PROVENANCE.md` + `SHA256SUMS.txt` | **Landed** |

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## Blocked / partial

| Item | Blocker | What James needs |
|------|---------|------------------|
| Pew HTML chapter pages | Bot challenge (HTTP 403 / JS check) from this environment | Optional: none for now — PDFs cover the same thermometer tables |
| ANES Guide interactive chart scrape | Cloudflare JS challenge on Guide pages | Optional: microdata already on disk; Guide is corroborating aggregate UI only |
| Overlap & discrimination sketch (memo §6.3) | **Started** — `WAVE2C_S1_OVERLAP_SKETCH.md` | Tables only; no thresholds/scoring |

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## Explicit non-actions

- No `score_authorized(S1)` flip; no Phase/Load/PPS/Sync; no ACLED; no L1/M1 production score changes.
- Hub docs mirror + material comments on `b73c292a` posted; still no S1 score.

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## Suggested next (research-only)

1. Document coding map draft for Option A (in-party − out-party FT gap; leaner policy predeclared) using the minimal ANES extract — still no freeze.
2. Align Pew overall vs partisan cold/warm series as separate `pew_affective_pol` lineage (no ANES splice).
3. Later: election-year ANES gap vs nearest Pew release overlap sketch (n, correlation, disagreement years only).